President Obama is about to win what’s likely to become his signature foreign policy achievement, approval of the controversial Iran nuclear deal, and he probably won’t have to lift a finger to get there.
As of late Thursday at least, all Obama has to do is watch a few more predictable show votes, and the agreement he’s been pushing for will take effect.
It’s been known for days that Congress can’t do much to stop the deal, after enough Democrats in the Senate said they’d support it. Under a law devised by Congress, members can only block it by passing a resolution of disapproval, and then overriding Obama’s expected veto of that resolution.
But mid-week, House Republicans shifted gears in a way that seems to make it impossible for Congress to deliver any resolution at all to Obama, for or against the deal.
Instead of passing a resolution of disapproval, House Republicans decided to push for a resolution of approval, apparently to send a message that the House doesn’t approve of the deal. But the Senate is still working on a resolution of disapproval, and there aren’t any firm signs yet that either chamber will change their plan.
In a best-case scenario for Republicans opposed to the deal, the Senate would pass the disapproval resolution, and the House would reject the approval resolution. Those votes on different resolutions wouldn’t get anything sent to the Oval Office.
But even that muddled approach seemed to fall apart on Thursday, when 42 Senate Democrats filibustered the disapproval resolution.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., was left complaining that Democrats voted to spare Obama the embarrassment of having to veto the disapproval resolution.
“We all know the amount of time the administration has spent up here asking all these guys over here to take a bullet for the team,” McConnell said of the Democrats. “And, of course, the team is Team Obama.”
President Obama instantly saw the Senate filibuster for what it was: victory on the Iran deal.
“Today, the Senate took a historic step forward and voted to enable the United States to work with our international partners to enable the implementation of the comprehensive, long-term deal that will prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon,” he said. “This vote is a victory for diplomacy, for American national security, and for the safety and security of the world.”
While next week will feature a few additional votes in the House and Senate, the Democrats’ willingness to filibuster in the Senate is a hurdle that Republicans seem unlikely to overcome. The House could change its mind and pass a disapproval resolution, but it would stay stuck in the Senate.
McConnell can try again next week, and says he will, but there’s no immediate reason why Democrats will change their mind.
The House is also looking at other language to keep the pressure on Obama, but those measures seem even more likely to be filibustered in the Senate.
One of those was approved late Thursday. It’s a resolution saying Obama failed to give Congress all the information it needs to consider the Iran deal, but it’s non-binding.
The other is legislation aimed at prohibiting Obama from easing sanctions on Iran. It’ll pass, but Senate Democrats seem sure to filibuster that as well.
On Thursday, it became so clear that Republicans can’t use the Legislative Branch to attack the deal, and so clear that the Executive Branch won’t help, that the GOP admitted it’s considering the Judicial Branch for help. A House aide told the Washington Examiner that Republicans were considering a lawsuit against Obama, one that argues Obama hasn’t given Congress enough data to assess the deal.
The lawsuit make work, but it’s unclear how quickly it might be filed, how soon it could be decided or who would win.
For now, the White House is counting it all as a victory, and said the deal will take effect at the end of the congressional review period, on Sept. 17.
“They essentially had 60 days to play the spoiler,” said White House spokesman Josh Earnest.
