It’s all the fashion these days to claim that President Emmanuel Macron of France and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany are the leading defenders of the liberal world order.
It’s all the fashion, but it’s also all false.
Consider what has happened over the past week. Following Russia’s unjust seizure of 23 Ukrainian sailors and three Ukrainian vessels last Sunday, the U.S. seems amenable to new sanctions. President Trump has also canceled a meeting with Putin planned for this weekend. Macron and Merkel have responded very differently.
Reuters reports that while Britain, Poland, and the Baltic states wanted to threaten Russia with new sanctions, the European Union offered only a bland statement of nothingness. Why the weakness? Well, as Reuters notes, because Macron and Merkel don’t want to punish Russian aggression. Instead, “Germany and France have so far emphasized efforts to ease tensions.”
This reaction from Berlin and Paris is both pathetic and utterly surprising.
Unless, of course, you’re one of the many Western journalists who believe that Macron and Merkel are guarantors of the liberal order. CNN’s Sam Kiley says Macron “is the leader of the only democracy left among the permanent five members of the Security Council that still seems to believe that a world organized under the imperfect structures of multilateral diplomacy and its rules is one worth preserving.” Kiley ignores whether Macron is actually willing to do what is necessary to defend those rules. It matters because words alone will not preserve the liberal peace. Or take the Washington Post’s Jennifer Rubin, who argued earlier this month, “The West is fortunate to have Macron, Merkel and other responsible leaders — as well as the strength of the U.S. military — to keep the peace for now.”
Welcome to the great delusion of European multiculturalism. Its adherents assume that the ingredients of international order are fine wines and eloquent speeches. But they are wrong. Liberal international order ultimately rests on a more simplistic foundation: its adversaries’ recognition that the guardians of liberal order will employ powerful coercive instruments to uphold their order.
Russian tanks and Chinese warships will neither be deterred nor stopped by Macron’s charm nor Merkel’s stature. They will only be deterred and if necessary, defeated, by American Marines and B-2 bombers.
Trump is far from perfect, but the U.S.-led international order remains stable. Indeed, NATO is now stronger than under former President Barack Obama.
This speaks to something important. Macron and Merkel might talk a good game. But when it comes to upholding liberal order and Ukrainian sovereignty, their game is worthless.
