Lest you think there’s no hope at all for Republicans in Congressional races this year, I’ll point you to some good news in an unexpected area–New York:
Four of NY’s six GOP seats could swing to Dems this fall. But one of those four, retiring Tom Reynolds’ (R) NY-26, looks less and less everyday like it belongs with those other three. — Today’s news that yet another Dem is filing to run in NY-26 has further clouded the party’s prospects. Despite ’04/’06 nom/businessman Jack Davis’ (D) attempts to improve his image and skills, he’s not the candidate most Dem insiders want this year. But w/the further dilution of the field, his name ID and his millions, he could be the early fave. Some Dems are high on Iraq vet Jonathan Powers (D), but can he raise enough to compete? — Conversely, the GOP appears to be getting its act together. While businessman Christopher Lee’s (R) nom bruised some egos within the GOP brass, he was Reynolds’ choice and will have the cash to compete. The party has also been working to clear the primary field of its only remaining candidate, and is trying to move Iraq vet David Bellavia (D) to the NY-28 race. — So, Dems have a messy primary that could produce a flawed candidate, while the GOP could have an attractive candidate who doesn’t have to deal with a primary…
We’ve written about the impressive Bellavia before. Whichever seat he ends up competing for, he will earn fans and make his supporters proud. That said, the former Reynolds seat is clearly far more hospitable for a Republican candidate. Congresswoman Slaughter, by contrast, has won this seat with no less than 63% of the vote since Congressional lines were redrawn. That said, if New York Republican leaders succeed in setting up Lee and Bellavia to run competitive races in two districts rather than one, it will better their chances of winning both.
