The Environmental Protection Agency may have some surprises in store for the automotive industry as it contemplates big changes to its greenhouse gas rules following the Paris climate change deal last month.
“In this post-Paris world we need to open our minds to all good ideas that will accelerate this transformation in ways that will be good for the planet, good for business and good for people,” EPA’s director of transportation and air quality, Chris Grundler, said in an interview with Automotive News published Monday.
On the sidelines of the North American International Auto Show in Detroit, Grundler discussed the changes he sees coming as the agency rethinks its current set of standards for the industry, which stretch out to 2025.
The standards are set jointly by the EPA and the Department of Transportation for light duty cars and trucks. The first phase of the program applies to model years 2012-2016, and the second phase 2017-2025. The goal of the program is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 6 billion tons, while improving average fuel economy to 54.5 miles per gallon in model year 2025 vehicles, according to the EPA.
Grundler’s comments could hint at President Obama announcing new steps for vehicle regulations when he visits the auto show later this week. The current 2025 standards are a key part to the U.S. meeting its emission reduction obligations under the Paris deal that brought together 196 countries to make commitments to emission cuts to combat global warming.
Many scientists blame manmade greenhouse gas emissions for warming the Earth’s climate, resulting in more severe weather, drought, famine and flooding.
Next year the EPA will meet with the auto industry during a 2017 midterm review to discuss any changes to the rules that may be necessary. But Obama may want to get something going before he leaves office next year to strengthen the emission standards, based on Grundler’s comments.
The EPA says the agency “could go one of three ways” as a result of the midterm review: “the standards remain appropriate, the standards should be less stringent, or the standards should be more stringent.” The EPA, the Department of Transportation and the California Air Resources Board are undergoing a technology review process to inform the midterm review. A draft proposal of that technical assessment report will be issued in June.
Grundler said that next year’s midterm evaluation of the agency’s emission and fuel economy rules will be one venue to consider a new model for automotive environmental policy. He praised the industry’s ability to meet the current set of regulations as “nothing short of spectacular,” but suggested that any weakening of the standards would be unlikely.
“There seems to be a clear consensus in the automotive industry about what this future looks like, and that we’re in the midst of transformational change,” Grundler told the Automotive News World Congress held alongside the Detroit auto show. “The question to me becomes: What does this mean for the post-2025 policy framework? Should it transform as well? I say, yes. Absolutely.”
The Automotive News said his remarks mark the first time a senior EPA official has publicly acknowledged a willingness to change the agency’s approach to cutting greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles.
What is driving that change in EPA’s thinking is the recent surge in new technologies making their way into new vehicle models, namely new radars and sensor arrays that make driverless cars a reality. He also said that the recent surge in car-sharing programs, with car ownership falling among younger groups, is also forcing EPA to reconsider how it gauges compliance.
The current approach to regulating greenhouse gases becomes increasingly stringent each year up to 2025, driving the auto industry to increase the number of electric cars it offers to lower those emissions.
Grundler told the magazine that the EPA is looking at new ways of measuring vehicle emissions that will consider where the electricity comes from to power electric cars, whether from coal, wind, natural gas or nuclear. He said the agency is also looking at autonomous-driving technologies, which can improve vehicle efficiency, in addition to car-sharing and mobility services and other emerging trends.
Grundler said the agency “can’t simply take the same old approach that looks at this from a tailpipe standard-setting point of view. We need to be thinking about public policy in a post-2025 period in a much broader way.”
