Seasoned Washington Post columnist George Will judges Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to be “the most consequential conservative since Ronald Reagan.” It’s arguable, but there is a strong case.
Even if he isn’t, even if he’s second, or third, or fourth, it wouldn’t provide Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham the cushion to be as discourteous as he was to McConnell on Fox News Sunday.
Graham was highly critical of McConnell’s post-acquittal criticism of former President Donald Trump, in which the Republican leader said that Trump was “practically and morally responsible” for the riot. Graham told host Chris Wallace, “McConnell’s speech — he got a load off a chest, obviously, but unfortunately, he put a load on the back of Republicans.”
The party has been bearing its “load” ever since the riot — and arguably since before even then. The many censures of Republican members for supporting impeachment, and other friendly fire from the likes of Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida, have made the load especially difficult to manage.
Anyway, Graham went on: “That speech you will see in 2022 campaigns. I would imagine if you’re a Republican running in Arizona or Georgia or New Hampshire, where we have a chance to take back the Senate, they may be playing Sen. McConnell’s speech and asking about it as a candidate. And I imagine if you’re an incumbent Republican, they’re going to be people asking you will you support Sen. McConnell in the future.”
The main problem with Graham’s reading of the Trump dilemma and its implications for the midterm elections (and for the party’s longer-term health) is that he discounts the extent to which Trump has become a demonstrable liability.
Trump’s job approval suffered a steep decline after the riot, falling 17 percentage points among Republican and Republican-leaning voters. The percentage of those same voters who said that Trump should run again fell by 20 points from December to January. Those numbers are problematic enough, but consider that the same poll that found Trump’s 17-point drop among Republicans found his overall approval to be at 29%.
Then, consider how important it will be for Republicans to win Senate seats in Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania in the midterm elections. Republicans haven’t had large margins to work with in the past couple of Senate races in these states, and Trump lost all three in 2020.
The remaining support for Trump would suggest, as Graham told Wallace, that “Trump-plus is the way back in 2022.” Yet, based on all we know, that type of thinking could do Republicans in where their chances at shifting the Senate’s balance of power are the best.
Graham knows that some share of Trump voters is antagonistic toward Republican officials whose moral instincts lead them away from Trump. The senator himself was called a traitor after saying, among other things, that Trump’s words were “the problem” on Jan. 6. In trying to keep Trump, and those who are supporters of him specifically, in equilibrium, Graham underestimates how important moderate and Trump-weary Republican voters (many of whom undoubtedly share McConnell’s feelings) will be to Republicans finding their “way back.”
Finally, Graham mused about the “incumbent Republican” who will have to take questions during the 2022 race about whether he will support McConnell. The incumbent Republican, if the person has sense and a decent memory, will point to McConnell’s 14 years of commanding Senate Republicans, remind the askers of his prowess and success as a hedge against congressional Democrats, and reply, “Absolutely.”
