Six Air Force F-22 fighter jets are on their way to Poland. The crew’s mission is to strengthen NATO’s deterrent posture in Eastern Europe and deter Russian aggression. The allies this mission most benefits are deserving: The Baltic states and Poland spend at least NATO’s 2%-of-GDP target on defense. They also support U.S. efforts to restrain China’s increasingly bold Communist imperialism.
But China cuts to the heart of the problem here. Because even as the U.S. military desperately needs to bolster its readiness against China, the Biden administration is moving more of the most finite, valuable assets away from the Pacific and into Europe. For example, two additional Navy destroyers were recently sent to Spain. These moves are a mistake for two reasons.
First, they encourage wealthy Western European powers in their reliance on the United States to do the heavy lifting for Europe’s defense. For example, Germany appears to be backing down from its much-vaunted plan to reach NATO’s 2%-of-GDP defense spending target finally.
Second, they drain U.S. forces in the Pacific of combat capabilities that can deter, endure against, and hopefully defeat the People’s Liberation Army. This question of endurance is additionally important in the context of members of Congress, such as Rep. John Rutherford (R-FL), who believe cronyism is more important than national defense.
However, the F-22 is absolutely critical to the deter-defeat mission against China.
The most capable air supremacy fighter jet in the world, far superior to its inadequate F-35 replacement, F-22s are designed for what are known as “offensive counter air” operations. In the event of war with China, for example, F-22 crews would engage the most capable PLA aircraft before those aircraft could attack other U.S. assets. The F-22s would also be used to escort B-2 bombers as they targeted PLA command nodes, sensors, airfields, and missile units.
The problem: The U.S. doesn’t have nearly enough F-22s. The Air Force has only around 180 F-22s in its inventory at any time. But only between 110 and 140 of the jets are ever operationally ready. This is the terrible legacy of former Defense Secretary Bob Gates’s decision to suspend the F-22 production line in light of competing needs incurred by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In contrast, the PLA has more than 2,000 combat aircraft and combat drones. That number is growing rapidly and is matched by a similar surge for the PLA-Navy. Although not battle-tested, PLA forces are well trained and motivated to conduct aggressive operations in the Communist Party’s service. And because any U.S-China military conflict would almost certainly be fought in the East China Sea and/or the South China Sea, the PLA’s ability to refuel quickly, rearm, and engage new targets will be far greater than that of the U.S. military. Put simply, the F-22s are an increasingly critical element of an increasingly vulnerable U.S. strategy for the defense of the Pacific.
Why, then, the Air Force is sending fighters from the Pacific air forces to Europe is unclear.
The six F-22s being sent to Poland are from the Alaska-based 90th Fighter Squadron rather than from units on the Atlantic coast. This could be because the Air Force wants to boost the crew’s proficiency for operations in Europe. Regardless, no F-22s should be going to Europe. Already stretched Pacific air forces now face another readiness blow.
Nor is the timing helpful. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is set to visit Taiwan over the next few days. The PLA has promised a response. But while the U.S. Navy currently has an aircraft carrier strike group heading toward the Taiwan Strait, that carrier group no longer faces the PLA of the 1990s. One strike group operating near the Taiwan Strait is now more of a sitting duck than a credible air stronghold.
It would be one thing if this deployment was a simple show of force, short in duration, and designed to remind the Russians of U.S. military flexibility. But this isn’t that. These planes will stay in Europe for months. Other fifth-generation fighters, F-22s, or F-35s, will then replace them. As the commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe told Air Force Magazine, “What we’re going to do is just kind of have … airplanes that will come in here for four months, and we’ll do that for about a year or so, in addition with all the permanent aircraft that we have stationed here.”
Putting aside the White House’s absurd claims to the contrary, the U.S. cannot do everything, everywhere. European air forces collectively possess enough advanced fighter aircraft and crews to support NATO’s needed deterrent boost. The same is true when it comes to naval forces. But the threat posed by China clearly demands a singular U.S. focus.
Let’s hope Beijing doesn’t test the Biden administration’s “we can do it all” strategy anytime soon.
