It’s Barbaro once again.
OK, I know I wrote two days ago the Kentucky Derby winner is vulnerable. And he is. But Saturday’s Preakness Stakes sets up perfectly for Barbaro. It won’t take a supercolt performance for him to head to the Belmont Stakes seeking the Triple Crown.
There are three realistic contenders — Barbaro, Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint. Diabolical is the only one of six non-Derby entrants who has a snowball’s chance of hitting the board.
But here’s the rub — any of the big three could win. It’s going to come down to who’s smarter. Fortunately for Barbaro, he has the smartest rider in the country in Edgar Prado.
The Preakness has long been a rider’s race. Shorter distance, sharper turns and fewer horses lets jockeys have far more of a say in the outcome than the Derby’s cavalry charge.
Alex Solis, who’ll be aboard Brother Derek, won the 1986 Preakness with Snow Chief. Kent Desormeaux on Sweetnorthernsaint took the 1998 Preakness with Real Quiet. Prado has never scored a Preakness, but won more than 3,200 races on the Maryland circuit.
None of them is anybody’s fool. Neither will let another jockey ride their horse too by dictating strategy.
But Prado is the steely one. He is going to keep Barbaro in the perfect spot until it’s time to roar in the stretch.
As long as nothing bizarre happens, you can figure Brother Derek takes the lead over Barbaro going into the first turn. Ignore the other horses even if that pair is running third and fourth. They’ll be the two you’re watching in the lane.
Brother Derek drew inside Barbaro with the No. 5 post so Solis figures he can dictate the pace and keep Barbaro wide. Solis has something to prove after starting slowly in the Derby coupled with later traffic woes to lose all chance. Solis figures Brother Derek has something left after a strong Derby finish so the jockey won’t fear a late stretch duel.
Prado will fool Solis into thinking the latter’s in control, but the Peruvian rider will be sitting chilly. Prado will let Solis do the harder work of setting the pace and when it comes time for the stretch run, Barbaro flies past Brother Derek.
Prado never hit Barbaro with the whip in the Derby stretch despite the fastest closing quarter mile since Secretariat in 1973. Prado saved the colt for the entire Triple Crown series so he also has something left for the lane. Anybody thinking of outrunning Barbaro late will be sucking fumes.
What about Sweetnorthernsaint? He’s an X-factor. Maybe Desormeaux tries to steal the race early. If Desormeaux presses too hard, though, the colt is through leaving the final turn. Maybe the former Maryland standout rider can fool his competitors with a slow early pace that lets Sweetnorthernsaint try to outkick everyone, but it’s doubtful.
Now before betting 6-5-7 on your triple tickets, let’s consider value. Betting Barbaro to win probably gets $3.20 for $2. Only souvenir seekers do that. The exacta might only pay $8 — a fourfold return but not enough to cover gas money to the track.
The triple is the only worthwhile wager and something tells me Sweetnorthernsaint falls to fourth. The only colt with a reasonable chance — Diabolical — should be played for third. The triple might get $100. It’s not much compared to the $11,000 Derby triple, but you take what you get.
After all, being right is always nice and making money is even better.
131st Preakness Stakes
When: Saturday, 6:14 p.m.
TV: NBC
Where: Pimlico Race Course
Race length: 1 3/16 miles
2005 winner: Afleet Alex (1:55.04)
Place, show: Scrappy T, Giacomo.
Rick Snider has covered local sports for 28 years. Contact him at [email protected].
