House GOP leaders have the general outlines of a response if the Supreme Court blocks Obamacare subsidies within the next few days. Now they’ve got to get their rank-and-file on board.
For the first time Wednesday, Rep. Paul Ryan presented his colleagues with a general plan to maintain the health insurance subsidies, but also repeal its individual and employer mandates — parts of the healthcare law Republicans find most distasteful.
Under the plan, the low- and mid-income Americans who have been collecting the subsidies would keep getting them and could use them for plans both inside and outside the Obamacare marketplaces. The subsidies would be supplied through block grants to states, or if states didn’t opt in, individuals could receive them, possibly through health savings accounts.
While the mandates would be repealed right away, the new pathway for subsidies would start in January and last for two years, well through the 2016 election. Republicans intend to pass the plan under budget reconciliation rules so they would only need a majority in the Senate instead of 60 votes.
The plan would almost certainly be vetoed by President Obama, and it’s far from certain it would get broad consensus even among Republicans. But it does mean Republicans have a blueprint for responding should the court uphold the King v. Burwell challenge.
The closely watched legal dispute is over whether the insurance subsidies can go to Americans in all the states, or just the minority of states that are running their own exchanges. Only 14 states are entirely running their own marketplaces, while the rest are partially or fully relying on healthcare.gov.
If the court sides with King, it would upend a big part of President Obama’s healthcare law by depriving more than 6 million people of federal help to afford insurance — and would set up a huge political clash between congressional Republicans and the White House.
Ryan, who is chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee, wouldn’t say Wednesday whether there is consensus around the plan. Nor would he offer any more details about it, saying only that it’s not final and could be “customized” to fit the court’s ruling.
“We’ll be ready when the court rules,” he told reporters.
The justices are expected to hand down their ruling before the end of the month, with Thursday being the next possible day for a decision. If it strikes the subsidies, that would set off a chain of economic and political ripple effects sure to reverberate through the 2016 election season.
Many Republicans want to keep the subsidies flowing temporarily but also grab the opportunity to try to repeal parts of the healthcare law they especially dislike. The Ryan plan does that, but it’s not clear whether that will be enough for conservative Republicans who fear appearing to abet Obamacare. And he needs those members, since repealing the law’s mandates makes it a nonstarter for Democrats.
“I don’t know, I really don’t,” said Rep. John Fleming, R-La., when asked whether there are enough votes to pass it. “We’d have to do a little bit of nose counting on it.”
“I’d say it’s always an issue with us,” said Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., asked whether leadership will have trouble building agreement.
Some Senate Republicans have been working on similar plans. Members said Wednesday the intention is to roll out one unified response to a ruling upholding King, but that response has yet to be decided.
“The idea is we have a majority signing off on this before we even go down this road,” Fleming said.
“It’s a feedback session for the leaders,” said Rep. Joe Pitts, R-Pa. “It’s our approach, but they’re wanting feedback.”
