CIA Director Mike Pompeo is right to push for greater risk-taking by his spies, but he’ll need political support as he does so.
After all, as operations officers take more risks seeking greater intelligence prizes, the danger to their lives, their sources, and U.S. foreign policy relationships will also increase.
Still, Pompeo has been quite specific on his ambitions for the agency. Speaking earlier this month at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies think tank, Pompeo explained, “It’s no secret I have asked our officers and they are thrilled to be doing it, to re-engage in ways that are out in the field, who are prepared to accept more risk to achieve high pay-off returns for the president, so that we can deliver him the important information.”
Here, Pompeo is referring to the operations officers of the Directorate of Operations, who underpin the CIA’s human intelligence program. These officers operate under two main formats. Most operations officers serve at U.S. diplomatic posts abroad, pretending to be State Department employees. But there’s also a smaller cadre of operations officers who pose as businesspersons, academics, or journalists, or anything you can think of, but who lack diplomatic cover.
Regardless, all these operations officers focus on the recruitment or influencing of foreign officials who can provide valuable, otherwise unattainable information or policies for the United States.
Their work is important and worthy of greater risk-taking.
Yet Pompeo also has another factor in support of his pro-risk approach: America’s foreign intelligence partners welcome it. Speaking at the FDD, Pompeo stated:
It is something that [intelligence partners] had noticed an absence of, and they are thrilled at the CIA’s returned to its traditional understanding of being at the cutting edge, out on freedom’s frontier, collecting the right information to deliver to U.S. policymakers, and more appropriate, our host nation’s policymakers, such that we can collectively take down threats all across the world.
Pompeo deserves credit for recognizing the broader multilateralist benefits of CIA risk-taking. By unleashing operations officers to take risks and acquire information, the U.S. can better support allies by providing them with valuable information. It is hard to overstate the value with which U.S. allies regard these efforts, but as one example, the British government regards its U.S. intelligence alliance as the aorta of the special relationship.
Nevertheless, Pompeo’s risk-pledge isn’t as simple as his speeches presume.
As the director explained in a speech on Oct. 12, “… we’re stressing to our officers that they must have the courage to fail. I’m an engineer by training, so I know that when you increase risk and increase speed, your rate of failure will go up too. We want our officers to know that’s okay. As long as they’ve done their homework, as long as they’ve gone about their work the right way, failure to achieve an objective doesn’t mean they’ve let the agency down.”
It sounds good, but that risk equation is not without complexities.
First off, it will mean more stars added to the CIA’s memorial wall which memorializes officers who died in the nation’s service. But CIA officers don’t just risk death; they risk torture and then execution, just ask William F. Buckley.
Then there’s the prospect of political blowback.
Consider what might happen, for example, if a CIA officer was caught infiltrating a sensitive government facility in Beijing, Moscow, or Tehran.
The incident would cause a major diplomatic argument or might motivate some form of retaliation by the other actor. In turn, the White House or Congress might blame the CIA and restrict it from carrying out other operations. That speaks to the final challenge: Pompeo’s line “as long as they’ve done their homework” line.
While Pompeo seems genuinely supportive of added risk-taking, a future CIA director or president might second-guess CIA officers after the fact.
This is not a hypothetical concern.
Consider the story of Jose Rodriguez:
In 2009, that former directorate of operations chief found himself under investigation for his role in the CIA’s enhanced interrogation program. With President George W. Bush’s authorization, Rodriguez and his officers accepted the risks involved and generated intelligence that saved American and allied lives.
But when the Obama administration took office, the calculation of risk and reward shifted and suddenly, Rodriguez and his officers were left in limbo. In the same way, Pompeo’s officers need confidence that they won’t be sold down the river if an operation goes wrong or political tides change.
Don’t get me wrong, I support Pompeo’s reforms. Still, the director must ensure that he and his officers have Trump’s unwavering support.
