Is Hillary Clinton ready to play for the presidency on Republican challengers’ home turf?
A Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday examined that question, looking at how Clinton would fare today with voters in Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, the home states of some potential Republican contenders for the presidency.
The results, which show Clinton leading or tied with all Republican comers in each of the three states, suggest that the former secretary of state can overcome even a strong home-field advantage among her potential challengers, although Clinton is still months from officially launching a campaign for president.
Of the three states surveyed by Quinnipiac, Florida is clearly the toughest turf for Clinton. Two top-tier Republican candidates hail from Florida: former Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio. But only one of them, Bush, ties Clinton among Sunshine State voters in a head-to-head match-up, with Bush winning 43 percent and Clinton 44 percent. Rubio, meanwhile, draws just 39 percent to 49 percent for Clinton.
The poll found surprisingly strong support in Ohio for Gov. John Kasich, who has flirted with the idea of running for president but has not yet leaned in to a campaign as assuredly as some other likely candidates. But were Kasich to face Clinton in Ohio today, they would tie, the poll found. Bush, by contrast, draws only 36 percent of the vote in Ohio, against Clinton with 47 percent.
Clinton performs the best in Pennsylvania, where New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is the strongest Republican contender. In a head-to-head match-up, Clinton prevails with 50 percent to 39 percent for Christie. Former Sen. Rick Santorum, who hails from Pennsylvania, draws 34 percent in a match-up there, with Clinton at 54 percent.
“There is a reason why Hillary Clinton has followed a slower, less aggressive schedule when it comes to ramping up her expected presidential campaign than have virtually all of her potential White House opponents,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
“She holds double-digit leads over all her potential GOP opponents in the three biggest swing states, except for two native sons, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. And she is under little pressure from within her own party to hit the campaign trail.”
Tellingly, the results show approval exceeding 50 percent for Clinton in each state, with strong support from women. Bush and Kasich both enjoy strong favorability, in the mid-40 percent range, at home. Rubio, meanwhile, has just 26 percent favorability in Florida, with 26 percent unfavorable. In Pennsylvania, 33 percent view Santorum favorably, while another 42 percent do not.
The poll, conducted from Jan. 22 through Feb. 1, surveyed 936 Florida voters, 942 Ohio voters and 881 Pennsylvania voters via land lines and cell phones. The margin of error was 3.2 percent for Florida and Ohio results, and 3.3 percent for Pennsylvania.
The survey did not measure support for a few top Republican contenders, including Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.
