This may be the last year that a Republican will be elected president, as the growth of liberal-leaning minorities all but guarantees that Democrats will hold the majority at least for the next four decades.
That’s according to an unusual survey on the impact of minorities, mostly Latin American, done for WalletHub and provided to Secrets.
The study used two models based on population projections and matched to the overwhelming 65 percent minority turnout for President Obama in 2012 and the underwhelming 50 percent response for George W. Bush in 2004.
The bottom line: In no presidential election from 2020-60 do the Republicans win. The closest the Republicans come is 2020 when the Democratic vote under the 2004 model reaches 50.48 percent, WalletHub said. The widest gap is projected for 2060, when the minority population will be its biggest, delivering the Democrats 58.8 percent of the vote.
“Since 1992, Democratic constituents have grown more ethnically diverse and less religious at a faster rate than the U.S., whereas their Republican counterparts have remained largely non-Hispanic white and become less religious at a slower pace,” the analysis said.
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner’s “Washington Secrets” columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]
