CARTER LEAVES FOR WARSAW: Defense Secretary Ash Carter departs for the NATO summit in Warsaw, Poland this morning, with a fresh commitment in hand to keep 8,400 U.S. troops in Afghanistan through next year, thereby slowing the pace of the drawdown. The summit was essentially the deadline for President Obama to make a decision on troop levels, so Carter could press his NATO counterparts to renew their commitments. NATO has roughly 6,000 troops there. The U.S. about 9,800.
WHY NOT KEEP 9,800? Is it prudence or politics? The White House was not very forthcoming on why 8,400 was the magic number that will allow the U.S. to do both of its missions in Afghanistan: TAA (Train, Advise, Assist) and CT (Counter Terrorism). The plan had been to bring the number down to 5,500 by the end of the year, so this keeps about 3,000 extra troops around. Officials insisted the 8,400 number was recommended by the Pentagon, and that 1,400 troops (15%) could be cut from the force. It’s especially curious given testimony yesterday from the three-star in charge of the Army’s Training and Doctrine Command, who says said the military is sending contractors to Afghanistan so they can stay under the limit allowed for U.S. troops, and it’s costing $100 million a year, David Wilkes reports.
SUMMIT TOPICS: There’s a lot more going on at the Warsaw summit than just Afghanistan. Daily on Defense has a handy checklist of eight issues that will be dominate the discussions, and over at the The Cipher Brief, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence Marcel Lettre opine on the importance of NATO and its value to the U.S. intelligence community.
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MUST-SEE TESTIMONY: In an appearance that’s almost guaranteed to produce fireworks, FBI Director James Comey is scheduled to testify at 10 this morning before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee about why, when he outlined the numerous ways Hillary Clinton mishandled classified emails, his agency did not recommend any charges be brought against the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. Attorney General Loretta Lynch officially accepted the recommendation and closed the case against Clinton late yesterday. When Comey announced the results of the FBI investigation Tuesday, he took no questions. He won’t have that luxury this morning. Sarah Westwood has compiled seven of the biggest unanswered questions in the case.
Meanwhile, House Republicans are looking at whether they can punish Clinton for her behavior, Susan Ferrechio reports, to include the appointment of a special prosecutor. “We’re not going to foreclose any options,” House Speaker Paul Ryan said yesterday after meeting privately with House Republicans. “With no indictment occurring, a discussion, or a call for administrative action is the least we can do, given how she was so reckless in handling classified material and sending classified information on an unsecured server.”
And it doesn’t stop there. The State Department says that staffers could still end up paying the price for sloppy email practices, despite the fact that Clinton won’t face charges for her use of a private email server, Pete Kasperowicz reports. “The State Department’s process for reviewing potential cases of mishandling of information does not apply exclusively to current employees,” spokesman John Kirby said, meaning former officials could still be denied clearances for future jobs in government.
SIREN: DEMOCRAT AGREES WITH REPUBLICANS: Rep. Adam Smith said yesterday that when it comes to structuring the next defense budget, the appropriators on the Senate side have the right idea. He objects specifically to the House defense policy bill, which shifts money from the overseas account to the base budget, meaning that the next president and Congress will need to hassle over how to continue the funding for the rest of the year. The battle will be fought in conference committee.
“GUN-BOAT” DIPLOMACY: A member of the Navy secretariat is under investigation after allegedly brandishing a gun at youths last month in suburban Virginia, Kelly Cohen reports. Cell phone video shows Karnig Ohannessian, deputy assistant secretary of the Navy for environment, pointing a gun and threatening the youths, saying “I can shoot the [expletive] out of you guys right now!” What is it with Pentagon officials and weird local crimes lately?
SUICIDE ATTEMPT: Convicted leaker and former soldier Chelsea Manning has been released from the hospital after attempting to commit suicide, Diana Stancy reports. Manning is serving a 35-year prison sentence for violating the Espionage Act by illegally submitting more than 700,000 digital files depicting battlefield logs, diplomatic cables and video clips.
TAKE THAT: “The United States has put North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on its sanctions list for human rights abuses, the first time he has ever been placed on the list,” Kelly Cohen reports. “The sanctions extend to 23 North Korean individuals and entities for their role in serious human rights violations, the Treasury Department said in a statement Wednesday.”
TRUMP CAN’T COMMAND: A pro-Clinton super PAC released an ad saying Donald Trump would be a failure as commander in chief, Ariel Cohen reports. “Donald Trump doesn’t have the temperament or the judgment to be our commander in chief. That’s why I’m speaking out, for America,” said retired Maj. Gen. Paul Eaton. Check out the ad here.
With Clinton under withering fire for the damning results of the FBI investigation of her emails, Donald Trump should be rising high. But W. James Antle III writes that Trump may have once again “snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.” Says Antle, “He has reinvigorated ‘NeverTrump’ as he has managed to do nearly every time his intraparty detractors appear to have run out of options.”
COULD TERRORISTS PICK AMERICA’S NEXT PRESIDENT? The Lexington Institute’s COO Loren Thompson ruminates about the effect that a terrorist attack, or even the lack of one, just before the presidential election could affect the outcome. Have terrorists succeeded in invading our psyche? “So what happens in a tight presidential election when, shortly before ballots are cast, there is a big terrorist attack that draws the usual coverage from electronic media? The answer is that enough voters may be swayed to determine who the next president is,” Thompson writes.
HIDDEN VOICE COMMANDS COULD COMMANDEER YOUR SMARTPHONE: Add to the security threats in everyday life the idea that your mobile device could be attacked through hidden voice commands that are not understandable to humans. The nightmare scenario described in a Georgetown University study: a million people watch a kitten video, and 10,000 of them have their phones nearby and 5,000 of those phones obey the attacker’s voice commands and load a URL with malware on it. And just like that, 5,000 smartphones are under an attacker’s control.
DHS U? – Will Homeland Security become the hot new major? It’s another sign of the times that the University at Albany-SUNY will be offering a bachelor’s degree program in emergency preparedness, homeland security and cybersecurity this fall. The school already offered a minor in the area of studies.
THE RUNDOWN
Reuters: Obama, Putin Speak By Phone, Ready To Increase Syria Coordination – Kremlin
AP: Al-Qaida Briefly Seizes Army Base In Southern Yemen
Air Force Times: Military aviation readiness is in ‘a deep hole,’ top brass says
Defense News: Pentagon Seeks Nearly $2.6B in Reprogramming Request
The Cipher Brief: The Terror Toolbox
Defense News: Army On Right Track With Next-Generation Intelligence System
Daily Beast: There’s a Machiavellian Method to the ISIS Madness
Mother Jones: The Pentagon Covers Up Yet Another Anti-Missile Failure
Bloomberg: Putin’s Military Buildup in the Baltic Stokes Invasion Fears
Daily Beast: Russia’s Biggest Warship Steams to Syria
Breaking Defense: Death To (Tiny) Drones: New Technologies Compete At Quantico
Digital Trends: Military may one day ‘grow’ drones in massive chemical baths
War on the Rocks: The United States and China can get along In the South China Sea
USNI: Marines: Class C Aviation Mishaps Have Doubled, Service Investigating
Washington Post: Drowning Death Of Navy SEAL Trainee Ruled A Homicide By Medical Examiner
National Defense Magazine: Clash Brewing Over Congressional Proposal To Create Nimbler Military Commands
Morning Call: Lehigh Valley Company Chosen For Navy Contract
Calendar
THURSDAY | JULY 7
8:30 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Rep. Mac Thornberry will discuss national security challenges facing the U.S. in light of the FY17 NDAA. heritage.org
10 a.m. House Armed Services Committee will discuss the way ahead with Goldwater-Nichols reform. armedservices.house.gov
10 a.m. Rayburn 2167. House Homeland Security Committee will examine the threat of smuggling nuclear materials around the globe. homeland.house.gov
10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. House Foreign Affairs Committee will hear testimony on the administration’s “reckless” release of detainees from Guantanamo Bay. foreignaffairs.house.gov
3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. House Armed Services Committee holds a hearing on maritime disputes in the South China Sea. armedservices.house.gov
FRIDAY | JULY 8
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. CSIS and USNI host a discussion with Rear Adms. Charles Richard and Michael Jabaley on the future of submarine warfare. csis.org
TUESDAY | JULY 12
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. CSIS hosts its sixth annual South China Sea conference. csis.org
WEDNESDAY | JULY 13
7:15 a.m. The Ritz-Carlton, Pentagon City. Vice Adm. Thomas Moore, commander of Naval Sea Systems Command, speaks at a Navy League breakfast. navyleague.org
11 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. CSIS hosts a discussion on harnessing new technological innovations for strategic effect in the 21st Century. csis.org
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The Heritage Foundation hosts Retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn to discuss his new book on winning the war against radical Islam. heritage.org
1:30 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. CIA Director John Brennan talks strategy at Brookings Institution in the face of emerging challenges around the globe. brookings.edu
4:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. The Atlantic Council hosts Adm. Kurt Tidd, commander of U.S. Southern Command, to discuss strategy. atlanticcouncil.org
THURSDAY | JULY 14
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The Heritage Foundation hosts former CIA analyst Fred Fleitz to discuss his new book on the nuclear deal with Iran. heritage.org
