New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has been weighing a presidential run for months, telling aides he wants to wait until early next year to see how the race shapes up. With front-runners Hillary Clinton and Rudolph Giuliani slipping in the polls, billionaire Bloomberg might see an opening for a centrist independent candidate with the financial means to take on a national campaign, say veteran campaign strategists.
“I think the race is certainly inviting for Mayor Bloomberg because there is at this point no clear and apparent nominee on either side,” said Republican strategist and former White House adviser Charlie Gerow.
New York Democratic political consultant Hank Sheinkopf said he believes the popular two-term mayor will wait until after the 20-state primary on Feb. 5 before deciding whether to enter the race. Sheinkopf, who was an adviser to President Bill Clinton’s 1996 re-election campaign, said Bloomberg would probably enter only if Hillary Clinton loses early primaries or her campaign is left in a weakened state. On the Republican side, Sheinkopf said, Bloomberg would stay out unless Rudy Giuliani or John McCain did not clearly lead the Republican pack by February. If those three candidates are eliminated or damaged, Bloomberg could enter the race as a moderate who could capture a sizable chunk of the Democratic and Republican bases.
“I would say it’s a 50-50 chance,” Sheinkopf said of a Bloomberg candidacy.
Political strategists say there is considerable buzz about Bloomberg jumping in, particularly in the face of increasing uncertainty about the race.
The inevitability of a Clinton-Giuliani matchup has faded with the advance in the polls of Republican Mike Huckabee, a religious conservative, and liberal-leaning Democrat Barack Obama.
If Huckabee and Obama win the early primaries, said Dan Schnur, a former top adviser to McCain’s presidential campaign, “there is more room in the middle,” for a candidate like Bloomberg.
Schnur said he believes that Bloomberg might not only run, he would stand a reasonable chance of winning.
“Most general elections are fought over the center, and Bloomberg can stake his claim to that,” Schnur said.
If Bloomberg decides to run, he could use his estimated $5.5 billion fortune to organize a national campaign. But he would have to get on the ballot in all 50 states, which will require collecting the signatures of hundreds of thousands of registered voters.
One group is already trying to reach that goal.
Carey Campbell, chairman of the Committee to Draft Michael Bloomberg, said efforts are under way in 45 states to get his name on the ballot.
“I believe Michael Bloomberg will run and I am going to do everything in my power to convince him to run,” Campbell said.
