Pakistan’s civilian government is heading for a showdown with the country’s military, leaving the U.S. nervous about stability inside the nuclear-armed nation and adding further complications to an upcoming American withdrawal from Afghanistan. On Monday, Pakistan’s Supreme Court issued a contempt notice to Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, ordering him to appear in court on Thursday. The court, which has strong ties to the country’s military, is accusing Gilani of failing to follow through with orders to investigate corruption charges against President Asif Al Zardari stemming back to the 1990s. If Gilani is convicted, he can be jailed and removed from office.
Bruce Riedel, chairman of the Obama administration’s Pakistan-Afghanistan policy review in early 2009, said all signs point to a military dictatorship in Pakistan and a dissolution of the current government.
“We are watching the development of Pakistan’s fifth military dictatorship by intimidation and court order,” Riedel said.
Riedel, a senior analyst at the Brookings Institution, argued that a military coup “is unlikely and unnecessary.” Instead, “The army is simply taking control of all key policy issues, including ties to Washington, from the civilians.”
The resignation of former Pakistani Ambassador Husain Haqqani in November over a memo he allegedly wrote on behalf of Zardari to U.S. defense officials in May was one of the first steps in unraveling those civilian ties with Washington, a Pakistani official told The Washington Examiner.
“These are uncertain times but one thing is certain, something is going to give — there were senior players behind this unraveling from the beginning,” the official said.
The memo was disclosed by a Pakistani-American businessman named Mansoor Ijaz. “Why he disclosed the memo is still a mystery,” the Pakistani official noted.
In that controversial dispatch, the Pakistani civilian government warned of an impending military coup, and asked for U.S. support to prevent it. Both American and Pakistani officials have described the memo as a fake.
But that hasn’t stopped it from fueling a governmental crisis and forcing Haqqani’s resignation. The memo also provoked the appointment of a commission by the Pakistani courts and widespread anger by Islamic fundamentalists at the Zardari government’s ties to America.
That commission resumed its deliberations Monday, and Ijaz is expected to testify this week, an event eagerly anticipated in Pakistan and feared by the civilian government.
The drama picked up steam last week with the ousting of the country’s top military official.
That came after Pakistan’s head of the Army, Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, and the head of Pakistan’s main spy agency, Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha, submitted written statements to the Supreme Court in Pakistan attesting that the memo delivered to top U.S. officials in Afghanistan was real. The pair said it was part of a conspiracy against the army. Gilani said the written statements by the army and spy chiefs were “unconstitutional” and should have been delivered through civilian representatives. Shortly after, Gilani fired the Pakistani defense secretary.
Pakistan’s military “may be trying to engineer a removal of the Zardari government from behind the scenes through the Supreme Court,” said James Carafano, senior defense analyst with the Heritage Foundation, a think tank in Washington, D.C.
“The timing of the Supreme Court’s threat this week to disqualify Prime Minister Gilani from office for his failure to move forward on corruption cases against President Zardari is suspicious,” Carafano said.
And it could lead to significant complications if the Obama administration sticks to its timetable of withdrawal from neighboring Afghanistan. “The U.S. should slow down the Afghan withdrawal process to allow U.S. and NATO commanders on the ground more time to consolidate gains … and to ensure that Afghan forces are sufficiently ready to take control of the nation’s security,” Carafano said. “A precipitous U.S. withdrawal could lead to civil war or the Taliban regaining influence, which would strengthen Islamist militant forces in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.”
Further adding to Pakistan’s political crisis is the announcement by former Pakistani leader Gen. Pervez Musharraf that he will be returning to Pakistan from exile within weeks with plans to reinvigorate his political party. There is a warrant for his arrest after he failed to appear in court on charges that he did not provide adequate security to former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who was assassinated in 2008.
Musharraf’s return to Pakistan is a wild card that could further undermine the civilian government, or bring the growing crisis to a head, experts said.
As early as December civilian officials in Pakistan were warning of an impending crisis. “Conspiracies are being hatched to pack up an elected government,” Gilani told reporters last month. “There cannot be a state within a state.”
Sara A. Carter is The Washington Examiner’s national security correspondent. She can be reached at [email protected].
