Tax Reform is Dead

After retaking the House of Representatives, Congressional GOP leaders beat a consistent drum for fundamentally reforming our tax system, an elusive goal since the historic 1986 tax reforms.


Should this year-end, must-pass CROmnibus bill pass, it will bring with it a few nails in the coffin of tax reform, at least in the near term.


As The Washington Post reports:



The credits being permanently extended include: * An expanded Earned Income Tax Credit for low-income earners; * The Child Tax Credit for low and moderate income workers; * The American Opportunity Tax Credit to help students under age 40 pay college tuition and expenses; * Low income housing credits; * An expanded research and experimentation credit; * Section 179 business expensing, which allows businesses to fully deduct the price of equipment and software investments; * State and local sales tax deduction; * Tax deductions for food inventory donated to food banks; * A deduction for land donated for conservation; and * A tax break for individuals to donate to charity from qualified retirement accounts.



The whole theory behind the yearly crisis of “tax extenders” is this: By constantly having to pass extensions of current policy under Congress’s Pay-as-You-Go (PayGo) budget rules, it is a natural incentive for tax reform.


This is because extending current law, under PayGo, “costs” in a budgetary sense. Of course it doesn’t cost the government to let people keep more of their own money, but the budget scheme assumes the revenue, and it has to (in theory) be offset by either spending reductions or tax increases.


Yes, certainty for businesses and individuals, economically, is a good thing. But by making a handful of these tax extenders “permanent” the GOP has weakened its hand in negotiating not only for tax reform, but in future budget battles in the short term. To be cynical, all of these provisions are pawns for horse trading, and they were just sacrificed. Tax reform as the biggest loser of this deal.

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