With the totally-not-Islamophobic-and-conspiratorial Joe Walsh set to wade into the joke of the Republican presidential primary, disaffected conservatives and centrists are left with still no real alternatives to President Trump.
If 2020 front-runner Joe Biden manages to make it to the general, most Trump-opposing Republicans and independents will likely either back the former vice president, assuming he chooses a passable running mate, or skip the top of the ballot. But if the next mostly likely options, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, consolidate the left-lane of the party and ride socializing our entire healthcare and energy industries to a primary victory, Democrats cannot and should not expect the so-called Never Trump vote.
A primary challenge could stand a chance against Trump in such a circumstance, but it would have to be the right one, a person capable of filling not the fantasies of cable news, but the actual void of electoral representation. And Trump’s making it easy for such a challenger. Just check out the latest from Monmouth.
NATIONAL POLL: Reelect @realDonaldTrump in 2020
Among Registered Voters
39% support reelection
57% time for someone newReelect by party
REP – 79%
IND – 40%
DEM – 4% https://t.co/dWstTDmdyI pic.twitter.com/wvbpVhQlL0— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) August 22, 2019
The chaos of the Trump presidency was baked into the cake long ago. His favorables have barely budged, and most polls indicate that his 2020 support, around 4 in 10 Americans, is both a ceiling and a floor, absent any earth-shattering developments. Evidently, tweets don’t count.
In head-to-head matchups between Trump and a generic Democrat, Trump loses by double digits. But between Trump and non-Biden front-runners, he remains within striking distance. Throw in a viable third-party candidate, and that calculus could change.
Walsh was twice as Trumpy as the president until about 45 seconds ago. Fellow primary contender Bill Weld would alienate both pro-life voters and libertarians still annoyed at the former libertarian running mate’s betrayal of Gary Johnson. The perfect primary challenger would have to not alienate specific political factions, such as pro-life Americans, but more importantly, they would have to make the one affirmative political case that neither Trump nor the Left will: the merits of free trade and responsible spending.
The insurgent powers on the Left and Right both espouse the same sort of protectionism and disregard for the deficit that has the country careening towards a crisis. Trump, Bernie, and Warren all oppose NAFTA, love spending increases, and treat taxes like political tools rather than a means to pay for our national expenses.
For all the focus on what persona would be compelling, perhaps more important is a candidate with a differentiating message. Obviously, publicity matters, but South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg managed to catapult himself into the top five in his primary. And literally no one knew who Andrew Yang was until a few months ago, yet he’s broken into the top 10 of the primary with a single economic message about automation.
Maybe that figure could be Nikki Haley, though she’s wily enough to not tease such a bid outright. Rep. Justin Amash, I-Michigan, could also pull it off. But maybe we haven’t even met the candidate yet. After all, the election’s still over a year away.
