While Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton continue to lead their respective parties in three key swing states, a new poll shows that Ben Carson and Vice President Joe Biden would do much better in a general election, when they face just one opponent from the other party.
If the election were held today and Carson were the Republican nominee, he would beat Clinton, Biden and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in the battleground states of Ohio and Pennsylvania. However, he would only beat Sanders in Florida, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.
No presidential candidate has won the general election since 1960 without carrying two out of those three swing states.
“Trump, despite his strong showing in mock Republican primaries, fares worst among the GOP candidates matched against the three Democratic aspirants — giving some credence to pundits who say the billionaire could be every Democrats’ favorite GOP nominee,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
In the Republican primary, however, Carson trails Trump in all three states, which makes Trump a hurdle Carson still has to overcome before he can get to the general election.
“Those who were waiting for Donald Trump’s campaign to collapse will need to wait longer — at least in the three key states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania,” Brown said.
Meanwhile, Biden continues to gain momentum on the Democratic side. In general elections, Biden would defeat former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio in Florida. In Ohio and Pennsylvania, Biden would defeat Bush, Rubio and Carly Fiorina, while Clinton trails all three candidates.
“When we get past the playoffs to the World Series, the general election face-off, Biden does better against leading Republicans than does Clinton or Sanders,” Brown added.
Though at the front of their parties, Trump and Clinton continue to have the worst overall favorability ratings among voters, as well as having the lowest scores for begin honest and trustworthy.
The phone poll was conducted between Sept. 25-Oct. 5 by phone. Quinnipiac interviewed 1,173 Florida voters, with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points; 1,180 Ohio voters with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points; and 1,049 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
