Joe Biden expressed in a weekend interview that he would be quite willing to institute a national lockdown to fight the coronavirus if it combines dangerously with the flu.
“So if the scientists say shut it down?” asked ABC’s David Muir. Biden responded, “I would shut it down, I would listen to the scientists.” Biden’s commitment begs a series of questions, chief among which is, how would he even do that?
At this juncture, Biden hasn’t offered an answer to that question, so we can only piece one together. When Muir asked him about how he would implement a national mask mandate, which he endorsed during his convention acceptance speech, Biden responded, “Well, look, I think I’m going to ask every governor to step up,” and went on about patriotism and protecting one’s neighbors. That’s about all Biden has offered on the question of enforcement.
At most, then, it looks like Biden would strongly urge states to mandate masks and lock down. Perhaps he would issue a presidential proclamation, or something of the sort, expressing the necessity of masking or locking down. Perhaps he would work to tie federal funding to compliance. Whatever his plan, there has yet to be a compelling case that the Constitution provides him the legal authority to force businesses and schools to close, or to force people to wear masks all the time while outside the home.
The obvious next question about Biden’s lockdown endorsement is, which scientists would he listen to? There certainly is a lockdown constituency among scientists, though, at least among current leading public health officials, support for lockdowns has waned, even amid recent surges.
Dr. Anthony Fauci has frequently expressed regret about the original lockdowns, saying they were too light and too brief. He has also suggested that states seeing surges should consider halting reopenings or institute new lockdowns. Still, more recently, Fauci said, “You don’t have to lock down again, but everybody has got to be on board for doing these five or six fundamental public health measures.” He reiterated, “I think we can get through this without having to revert back to a shutdown.”
Notably, CDC Director Robert Redfield has not been an advocate for stringent lockdowns and has frequently discussed their harmful consequences. Redfield has also been outspoken about the necessity of opening schools for their many societal benefits. Aside from that, Redfield expressed in a recent interview that he is confident that coronavirus mortality will continue to improve. If mortality can improve in the absence of lockdowns as strict as those we had in March, the argument in favor of new lockdowns becomes much weaker.
Of course, Fauci and Redfield could change their tunes if the coronavirus and the flu surge badly, which was the premise of Muir’s question. Biden could also simply elevate other scientists who do support lockdowns, yet it remains that doctors are getting better at treating COVID-19, and case fatality rates prove as much. It also remains that there’s no apparent legal path for Biden to enact a national lockdown. He ought to remember both of those things as he answers questions about what he would do as president.
