Have scare headlines exaggerated the U.S. crime wave? Yes, argues Carl Bialik in a fivethirtyeight.com blogpost piece on crime.
Bialik has painstakingly compiled 2014 and 2015-to-date homicide numbers from the nation’s 60 largest municipalities, with the exception of Anaheim, Calif., where officials promised to get back to him but haven’t yet. He reports that homicides have only increased 16 percent this year in these 60 cities, from (by my count: I’d be grateful for corrections of any arithmetic errors) 2,955 to 3,437. He points out, accurately, that murder rates even remain far below — at less than or just a bit more than half — the horrifying rates that prevailed from 1970-94.
He points out, again accurately, that while homicides have risen sharply in some cities (Milwaukee, Baltimore) as featured in a New York Times front page story and (though he doesn’t cite this) one of my recent Washington Examiner columns, they haven’t risen much in some others (Philadelphia, Detroit) and have declined in some (San Diego, Jacksonville). His tone seems to be: Nothing to see here, let’s move on to something else.
I take a different view. A 16 percent rise in homicides is alarming. We’re talking about an additional 482 lives being violently ended in 60 cities. That’s not chopped liver. Moreover, when we break down the cities into different categories, we get some alarming news. Nine of these 60 largest cities are in my view essentially suburban in character (San Jose, Calif.; Long Beach, Calif.; Mesa, Ariz.; Virginia Beach Va.; Arlington, Texas; Aurora, Colo.; Santa Ana, Calif.; Riverside, Calif., plus the non-reporting Anaheim). Homicides in these municipalities declined 12 percent, from 94 to 83.
However, homicides have increased 17 percent in the 51 central cities (from 2,861 to 3,354), 19 percent in the 23 central cities with 24 percent of higher black population (from 1,985 to 2,354) and 27 percent in the 10 cities with more than 100 homicides so far in 2015 (from 1,343 to 1,703) . These 10 cities (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Detroit, Washington, Baltimore, Milwaukee, New Orleans, St. Louis) accounted for just under half (49.55 percent) of the homicides in the 60 largest cities.
These data are evidence of the sad fact that a hugely disproportionate number of homicides in this country are committed by young black males on young black males. And the sharp rises in some of these cities are evidence that crime is rising out of control in some — by no means all — central cities with large black underclass neighborhoods. And homicide levels in some cities with no significant 2014-15 increase, notably Detroit, remain horrifyingly high.
“Scare headlines.” Bialik seems to have his numbers right, but he gets the lesson wrong. There is something to be scared about.
