SALISBURY, Md. — Maryland Democratic Rep. Frank Kratovil concedes he isn’t in the ideal political situation.
Analysts place him among the nation’s most vulnerable Democrats, as anti-incumbent sentiment swirls across the Eastern Shore and suburban Baltimore in Maryland’s Republican-leaning 1st District.
Even with record Democratic turnout two years ago, Kratovil carried the area by fewer than 3,000 votes over state Sen. Andy Harris, while Sen. John McCain trounced President Obama by 19 points.
But the freshman congressman says it’s telling that dirt hasn’t been thrown on his campaign yet.
“How do people explain that two and a half weeks out we’re in this position?” he asked, referencing the most recent independent poll, which put him just three points behind Harris in their rematch, with a 4.9 percent margin of error. “All the pundits who suggested this race was a foregone conclusion are now hedging their bets.”
Harris, a staunch conservative, is framing Kratovil as out of touch with independents, highlighting the Democrat’s support for the $800 billion federal stimulus package and cap-and-trade legislation, among other congressional
big spending measures. Although Kratovil voted against the health care overhaul — showcasing his self-described independent streak — Harris said his opponent fell in line with Democratic leadership whenever needed for other controversial votes.
“My positions haven’t changed,” Harris said while touring a small filter factory in Salisbury. “But it appears the national sentiment has. There is a completely different feeling among voters this time around. When people get scared, they vote for the other team.”
The contest likely will hinge on whether Kratovil can convince voters that Harris is too extreme to represent the diverse area. The district,
which spans from Severna Park in Anne Arundel County to Elkton in northern Harford County to the tourist town of Ocean City, generally votes more Democratic along the Eastern Shore and more Republican in suburban Baltimore.
Before a 2008 primary upset, the area was represented for years by Republican Wayne Gilchrest, one of the last vestiges of a moderate
Republican
presence in the House — he has endorsed Kratovil.
“I am a moderate Republican who feels homeless,” lamented Hugh Smith, while picking over a salad at a diner in Easton. “Kratovil is the more practical of the two. Andy Harris is nothing more than a demagogue. He just takes the stance of ‘no’ on all issues without articulating reasonable solutions.”
But others say new blood is needed.
“Why not vote them all out?” said Bruce Barnes, a retired construction worker from Salisbury. “This Harris guy can’t possibly be any worse.”
The race is atypical in some ways, as Kratovil has the backing of the National Rifle Association and U.S. Chamber of Commerce, usually reserved for Republican candidates.
But Harris has invested more resources this year in the Eastern Shore part of the district, an area that propelled Kratovil to victory in 2008. Though Kratovil has a bigger war chest, the National Republican Congressional Committee has more than $800,000 to spend against him.
And some locals say the candidates will have to cater to a variety of groups to win.
“It’s agricultural, it’s urban, it’s coastal, its conservative and even in some parts, progressive,” said Chestertown’s Dave Wharton about the district. “There are so many constituencies. You can’t survive here politically if you stray too far one way. It will be tight.”
