While it remains unlikely that Democrats will take control of the House in the upcoming fall elections, a runaway performance by Mitt Romney also isn’t likely to push the GOP to its biggest majority since the Great Depression.
According to a new analysis by Kyle Kondik, the House expert at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, the GOP won so many seats from Democrats in the 2010 election that there really isn’t much more territory for the Republicans to gain.
“In order to exceed their 1946 majority, Republicans would have to net an additional five seats. But given that Republicans cut so deeply into Democratic territory in 2010, that’s a very difficult proposition,” Kondik reports. He added: “It would probably take a Mitt Romney romp, and even then, Democrats might still gain seats because of their many opportunities in states that under no circumstances will go to Romney, such as California, Illinois and New York.”
Instead, he predicts a gain of 10 seats for Democrats, 15 short of what’s needed to reinstall House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi in the speaker’s chair.
What’s more, he finds that there are just 15 “toss-up” races around the nation, a remarkably small number, even though both the GOP and Democratic congressional campaign committees have several dozen in their sights. For perspective, 15 seats is about 3.5 percent of all 435 House races.
