TURNING UP THE PRESSURE: The U.S. strategy to try to get North Korea to forsake its nuclear and ballistic missile program is slowly being revealed. It is, in a nutshell, to greatly increase economic and diplomatic pressure on Pyongyang, while making the possible use of military force seem far more credible.
Speaking this morning in Tokyo, Vice President Mike Pence said, “All options are on the table and there they will remain. But President Trump and I, and our administration believe, the most productive pathway forward is dialogue among the family of nations that can pressure and isolate North Korea into abandoning permanently and dismantling permanently its nuclear weapons program and ballistic missile program.” Pence said the time has come for the international community to join together to meet the North Korean threat, and vowed, “We will not rest and we will not relent until we achieve the objective of a denuclearized Korean Peninsula.”
That strategy was underscored at the State Department in an on-the-record phone conference call with reporters, conducted by Acting Assistant Secretary Susan Thornton, an Obama administration holdover. “It’s a decision that’s been made with all of our allies and partners on this issue to maximize pressure, economic pressure on the North Korean regime to try to get it to make tangible steps to roll back their illegal programs,” Thornton said. The thing about sanctions, she said is you don’t know they are working until they work. “I think we just have to stick with it, be patient and make sure that our international coalition is rock solid.”
Thornton also said while North Korea continues firing off missiles there is not “much enthusiasm” for international talks. “I don’t think there is a realistic expectation of some kind of serious engagement from the international community while the North Koreans are continuing in all of this provocative and frankly illegal behavior,” Thornton said.
NORTH KOREA SPOOKED: At the United Nations, North Korea’s deputy UN ambassador Kim In Ryong accused the U.S. of turning the Korean Peninsula into “the world’s biggest hotspot” and said his country is ready to react to any “mode of war” from the United States, according to CNN.
“It has created a dangerous situation in which thermonuclear war may break out at any moment on the peninsula and poses a serious threat to world peace and security,” Kim said reading from a prepared statement. “The US is disturbing the global peace and stability and insisting on the gangster-like logic that its invasion of a sovereign state is decisive, and just, and proportionate.”
STRATEGIC PATIENCE OUT, STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY IN: At the White House, press secretary Sean Spicer was clear that the president has a deliberate strategy of keeping the North Korean guessing about what he might do. The Washington Post headline this morning referred to Trump as a “wild card.” “He holds his cards close to the vest, and I think you’re not going to see him telegraphing how he’s going to respond to any military or other situation going forward,” Spicer said yesterday. In other words, read my lips, no red lines. “That’s just something that he believes has not served us well in the past,” Spicer said. “So I don’t think that you’re going to see the president drawing redlines in the sand. But I think that the action that he took in Syria shows that when appropriate this president will take decisive action.”
Spicer yesterday also refused to say if President Trump ordered cyber sabotage of North Korea’s ballistic missile test on Sunday, but did say Trump was “well aware” of Kim Jong Un‘s plans. On Fox News, Spicer said Trump knew about North Korea’s plans to test another ballistic missile during its national holiday Sunday, but wouldn’t confirm reports that the U.S. helped bring down the missile through a cyberattack.
PERRY’S TAKE: I listen closely to what former Defense Secretary William Perry says about dealing with North Korea, because he’s the last Pentagon chief who actually has to seriously consider military action, and its second and third order effects. “I am very alarmed. I’m alarmed because, if we move into a military action, even a minor military action, the danger of escalation, I think, is very great,” Perry said on the PBS Newshour last night. “This is not Syria we’re attacking. That is a country that undoubtedly would respond with a military response to South Korea. And then, as I said, that action could very well escalate into a general war and even a nuclear war.”
But Perry also conceded there is a window of opportunity for what he calls “coercive diplomacy,” noting that sanctions will be tougher, and the threat of military force more real. “We have in the — past two administrations had sanctions as our element and course of diplomacy, but they were very ineffective and very weak. Now, because of the present situation, we’re in a position to provide really powerful disincentives, very powerful efforts, much more so than the sanctions,” Perry told Judy Woodruff. “China, which in the past has not shown much concern over the North Korean nuclear weapon, they’re now being greatly concerned, seeing that this could threaten their very core interests,” Perry said. “On the other hand, the threat of military action against North Korea in the past has not really been a credible one, but I think it may have become credible in the last few months. “
JAMIE’S TAKE: You can watch my video explainer about why North Korea presents a uniquely difficult and dangerous threat here, and catch my appearance on MSNBC’s Hardball with Chris Matthews here.
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.
LAYOFFS AT BOEING: Boeing Commercial Airplanes is expected to layoff hundreds of engineers in Washington state later this week with additional cuts coming later this year. In a letter sent to affected employees, Boeing’s vice president of engineering, John Hamilton, said the global company is making the cuts in order to stay competitive, according to multiple reports. The Chicago-based company reported a 2016 revenue of $95 billion and currently employs 74,200 people. Over the past year, Boeing has terminated more than 9,000 employees, primarily through retirements and buyouts.
NPR. NO, NOT THAT NPR: The Pentagon is beginning a major review of U.S. nuclear weapons policy, the first in seven years. The nuclear posture review, which is expected to take six months, is an evaluation both of the state of the U.S. nuclear arsenal and the threat from a potential nuclear-armed adversary. A lot has changed since the last review in 2010, when the executive summary included this sentence, “Russia and the United States are no longer adversaries, and prospects for military confrontation have declined dramatically.”
The U.S. commander in charge of nuclear weapons, Gen. John Hyten, told Congress this month the review will begin with a revised assessment of the dangers posed by America’s nuclear rivals. “And the first thing we’ll look at is the threat scenario. We’ll look at Russia, China, North Korea and Iran in particular to make sure we understand what those threats are,” Hyten said in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on April 4.
Rep. Adam Smith, ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, said in a statement, “I hope that it includes a thorough assessment of policy options that would allow us to avoid a costly and dangerous nuclear arms race; and that it properly analyzes the enormous risks inherent in lowering the threshold for using nuclear weapons.”
HELO DOWN: The U.S. Army said one crew member died and two were injured when a helicopter crashed in Maryland during a routine training flight. The U.S. Army Military District of Washington said in a statement Monday evening that the UH-60 Blackhawk that crashed is from the 12th Aviation Battalion, stationed at Fort Belvoir, Virginia. Three crew members were on board. The Army says one crew member is in serious condition and one is in critical condition. They are being treated at the R Adams Cowley Shock Trauma Center at the University of Maryland Medical Center in Baltimore.
DANGER CLOSE: One of the most intrepid war reporters I know, Alex Quade, who shepherded me around the Persian Gulf region in the fall of 2002 during the run-up to the Iraq invasion, premieres her feature-length documentary, “Danger Close,” tonight at the National Press Club. The movie, which hits theaters April 28, takes you behind the scenes and puts you on the front lines with U.S. special operations commandos in Afghanistan and Iraq. Tonight’s premiere screening will be followed by a question and answer session with Quade. Tickets info and more on the movie at the National Press Club website.
THE RUNDOWN
Reuters: Islamic State seeking alliance with al Qaeda, Iraqi vice president says
Defense News: Nothing to see here: US carrier still thousands of miles from Korea
Washington Post: Mike Pence altered his security plan at the Korean Demilitarized Zone. It’s not as strange as it sounds
Military.com: EUCOM gives ‘another look’ at planned base closures
UPI Security News: Iran shows off homemade stealth fighter jet
New York Times: Abu Sayyaf militants behead hostage, Philippine forces say
MSNBC: Matthews: North Korea is the new worry of the world
Defense Tech: South Korea pushes to make THAAD operational against North’s threat
Marine Corps Times: Desert tortoises relocated for expansion of Marine combat center at Twentynine Palms
Reuters: Triumphant Erdogan swats away Western criticism of referendum
War on the Rocks: Russia is an Asian power too: Japan understands, but does the United States?
USA Today: How U.S. drones helped win a battle against ISIS for first time in Libya
Defense One: Pentagon misses the target when it comes to its workforce
Wall Street Journal: In Afghanistan, battle with ISIS grinds on after big bomb
USNI News: As Russian arms sales slow, Moscow focus now on domestic weapons modernization
Calendar
MONDAY | APRIL 17
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave, NW. Sergey Denisentsev, a senior research fellow at the Center for the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, discusses Russia’s arms exports. csis.org
TUESDAY | APRIL 18
7 a.m. 7525 Colshire Drive. The beginning of a three-day annual summit on systems engineering cyber-resilient and secure weapon systems. ndia.org
7 a.m. 300 5th Ave. SW. The National Defense Industrial Association kicks off its three-day science and engineering technology conference. ndia.org
6:30 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. A premiere screening of Danger Close film and Q&A with war reporter Alex Quade. press.org
WEDNESDAY | APRIL 19
9 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. The difficult road toward stabilizing Iraq and the Gulf region. stimson.org
5 p.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW. How scholars can affect Trump’s foreign policy with Steven Weber, director of Bridging the Gap; Matt Kroenig, associate professor at Georgetown University; Ryan Evans, editor-in-chief of War on the Rocks; Mira Rapp Hooper, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security; and Sameer Lalwani, a senior associate at the Stimson Center. cato.org
THURSDAY | APRIL 20
9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Italian Prime Minister H.E. Paolo Gentiloni discusses security in the Mediterranean as a cornerstone of global stability and the common engagement of Italy and the United States. csis.org
10 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Experts discuss next steps in dealing with the South China Sea, a regional flashpoint. heritage.org
1 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The implications of Iran aircraft sales and how they could complicate U.S. efforts to contain its expanding influence in the Middle East. heritage.org
3 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The provincialism and internationalism of an America First policy in U.S. foreign relations. wilsoncenter.org
FRIDAY | APRIL 21
2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The French and German elections and post-election America. brookings.edu
MONDAY | APRIL 24
9 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Reflecting on President Trump’s first 100 days. brookings.edu
10:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. China’s growing interests in the Middle East, and the United States’ enduring interests in the Middle East. csis.org
12:30 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The long war in Afghanistan and the Trump administration. brookings.edu
TUESDAY | APRIL 25
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. South Caucasus: The threats and challenges for the Trump administration. heritage.org
