General Assembly Republicans are gearing up for what are expected to be numerous tough challenges by upstart Virginia Democrats in this fall’s general election.
These races are expected to provide a strong indication as to whether Virginia will be in play in next year’s presidential election after major victories by Democrats in Virginia’s past three major races — victories by Mark Warner, Tim Kaine and Jim Webb. Each of those victories was slim, with Warner winning by less than 5 percent, Kaine by 4 percent and Webb by fewer than 10,000 votes.
All 140 seats in the General Assembly are all up for grabs next fall. Republicans hold a 57-to-40 advantage over Democrats in the House of Delegates, and a 23-to-17 advantage in the Senate.
Democrats have not held consistent control of the state government since the mid-1990s.
“The Democrats feel very emboldened by their recent victories,” said Sean O’Brien, executive director of the Sorenson Institute for Political Leadership at the University of Virginia. “They’re looking to run more candidates than they’ve run in past races, and candidates in races they haven’t run in the past.
“There’s going to be a lot of contested races,” he said.
Even if successful in the General Assembly, any Democratic presidential candidate has an uphill battle in the Old Dominion. Virginia has voted for a Democratic presidential candidate only once since 1952, and that was in the Democratic landslide of 1964.
The 2004 election should provide some hope for success. John Kerry polled well in the state, winning more than 45 percent of the vote — the highest percentage since Jimmy Carter.
Larry Sabato, executive director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said although its too early to say with confidence how the race will go, Democratic success in 2008 would largely depend on statewide views of the outgoing president.
“It’s hard to believe that Bush is going to be popular and Iraq will be solved” by next year’s presidential election, he said.
