The U.S. government could soon face a significant increase in the number of Russian and Ukrainian citizens arriving at its land, air, and sea borders as millions depart amid the war in Ukraine, according to immigration experts.
The fallout from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine last month is expected to prompt people from both countries to flee, and some could travel beyond Europe and on to the United States in hopes of making an asylum claim upon arrival.
“I would expect that we will see an uptick of people — of recently arrived Ukrainians, of recently arrived Russians,” said Andrew Arthur, resident fellow for the conservative Center for Immigration Studies and retired federal immigration judge.
Two million Ukrainians have fled the country since the Feb. 24 invasion, and another 2 million are expected to flee, the United Nations said Tuesday.
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“In just seven days, one million people have fled Ukraine, uprooted by this senseless war,” U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi said in a statement that quickly became out of date as the numbers climbed. “I have worked in refugee emergencies for almost 40 years, and rarely have I seen an exodus as rapid as this one.”
It is not yet known how many people have fled to the U.S. because U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the federal agency that inspects all people and goods entering the country, has not yet released February data showing how many Russians and Ukrainians were encountered at the border last month.
However, federal data indicate that both nations have seen major increases in citizens attempting to enter the U.S. without permission over the past year and a half.
In the government’s fiscal year 2020, which ran from October 2019 to September 2020, U.S. border officials encountered 13,634 Russians and Ukrainians as they tried to enter through land, air, and sea borders without legal documents granting them the ability to do so. The figure does not include people who flew into the U.S. on valid visas.
Attempted unlawful entries nationwide rose to 22,618 nationwide in 2021 and have grown at a faster rate in the first four months of fiscal 2022, according to CBP data. Since October 2021, 16,169 people from Ukraine and Russia have been stopped attempting to enter the U.S., on trend to surpass 48,000 — a new record following last year’s all-time high.
Arrivals of both nationalities have climbed in a short period predating the unrest, according to Jessica Bolter, an immigration expert at the Migration Policy Institute in Washington.
For example, this past January, 1,343 Ukrainians were intercepted at U.S. borders, four times as many as January 2020. The increase in that two-year period was higher among Russians, which went from 361 in January 2020 to 2,618 this January.
The Department of Homeland Security provided the Washington Examiner with information showing the overall percentage of Russian and Ukrainian encounters was low compared to other countries. The DHS did not respond to a request for comment about whether it anticipated a rise in asylum-seekers arriving at the border or if it was preparing for an influx of people at airports, land ports of entry, or illegal crossings between ports of entry.
Historically, Russians and Ukrainians have not illegally crossed into the U.S. from Mexico — instead flying into Mexico, driving to the official land port of entry, and claiming asylum in hopes of being admitted. Others are using valid visas to fly into the U.S., then claiming asylum at the airport or at any time while in the U.S.
In order to board a flight to the U.S., Russian and Ukrainian passengers must present a passport and visa, which grants the recipient the ability to reside here temporarily. Making an asylum claim after entering the U.S. with a valid visa is called affirmative asylum, meaning the person had permission to enter the country in the first place but is now requesting to stay when the visa expires — for fear of persecution or torture back home.
Hundreds of thousands of Russians and Ukrainians have valid B-1 and B-2 visas, which are for business and tourism, respectively. Because these visas are good for several years as long as the recipient leaves after six months in the U.S., it would allow many to enter the U.S. legally.
“It’s certainly possible that we’ll see more airport asylum claims for Russians and Ukrainians, as well as more affirmative asylum claims from Russians and Ukrainians arriving on tourist visas,” said Bolter. “Those who may have multiple-entry tourist visas from past trips to the U.S. could use those to fly to the U.S. now and claim asylum.”
However, those without valid visas must obtain a visa to enter the U.S. — an unlikely feat given the delays in U.S. government processes. Other pathways for admission are illegally crossing the border between ports of entry, as 1.6 million people did last year, but historically, it has not been a popular option for Russians or Ukrainians. Just 783 of the 16,169 Ukrainian and Russians encountered at the border this year illegally entered the country, while most of the remainder sought permission to enter at a port of entry.
The bigger problem, according to Arthur, is the increase over the past year of Russians and Ukrainians who have been able to obtain visas to enter Mexico then fly in and travel up to the U.S. southern border. More than 6,600 of the 16,169 Russian and Ukrainian migrants encountered in 2021 were entering through CBP’s San Diego region, which includes the land border crossings at Otay Mesa and San Ysidro. Arthur said it was no coincidence that so many opted to cross in that one part of the 2,000-mile southern border.
“It’s generally easier for Russians and Ukrainians to obtain visas to travel to Mexico than to the U.S. Mexico offers both Russians and Ukrainians a special electronic visa for tourism purposes, which has less requirements than a tourist visa and can be completed online,” said Bolter. “While it’s quite possible there will be an increase here, it’s unlikely to be anywhere near the numbers European countries are receiving.”
One Democratic congressman who recently visited the San Ysidro port of entry in Southern California said he was surprised to see so many Russian and Ukrainian migrants attempting to pass through there. Rep. Lou Correa, a California Democrat, said in a House hearing last week that the problem “is not going away.”
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“All you need to do is get a visa to Mexico,” said Arthur. “Tijuana International Airport is the largest airport close to the border, so if you’re going to fly in anywhere, you’re going to fly into Tijuana. … You can always fly to Mexico City, take a bus.”
