Manchester, N.H.
“This campaign is not dead!”
It was an odd way for Jeb Bush to celebrate his probable fourth-place finish in the New Hampshire primary. But for the former Florida governor, who has seemingly stumbled nonstop in his bid for the White House, an extension on life is plenty of reason to cheer. And that’s what the crowd at Manchester Community College did, chanting over and over again their candidate’s first name.
“Jeb! Jeb! Jeb! Jeb!”
Bush, who at 11 percent of the vote is tracking tightly with Ted Cruz and trails John Kasich and winner Donald Trump by significant margins, spoke for eight-and-a-half minutes just before 10:00 Tuesday evening. He thanked the state of New Hampshire for reviving his campaign. “You’ve given me the chance to go to South Carolina, where we are going to do really well,” he said. “Thanks to you.”
And thanks as well goes to his former political protégé Marco Rubio, whom Bush bested here just more than a week after Rubio finished a strong third in Iowa. It looks increasingly that Rubio’s embarrassing exchange in Saturday’s debate with Chris Christie may have defined him for the large swath of undecided GOP voters in New Hampshire. With Bush and Kasich denying Rubio the chance to consolidate establishment support, both governors will continue to fight.
And on the next front, South Carolina, Team Bush talks as if they have the advantage. A campaign email to reporters Saturday night claimed “momentum on Jeb’s side.” Bush spokesman Tim Miller put it bluntly to reporters Saturday night.
“John Kasich has no chance to do well in the South Carolina primary,” Miller said. “John Kasich supported military defense cuts. John Kasich was the leading Republican advocate for expanding Obamacare. He didn’t just do it in Ohio, he was advocating for expanding Obamacare across the country. He doesn’t have a constituency past New Hampshire. He ran a one-state campaign and we don’t expect him to be viable for the nomination at all.”
South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham, who introduced Bush in Manchester and chatted with the press beforehand, said everything’s coming up Jeb ahead of the February 20 primary. “Jeb will do better with evangelicals in South Carolina than he did in Iowa,” said Graham, who has won three statewide elections. “The Bush family name is long and deep in South Carolina. 41 and 43 are well respected. The Bush family has had generations of service. That will matter in South Carolina.”
What about Bush’s favorability problems among Republican primary voters? In one recent poll of South Carolina Republican primary voters, 68 percent said they could “never consider” supporting Bush. Only Kasich performs worse on that question. Graham dismissed the idea, however.
“Bottom line is, how can you not like Jeb Bush?” Graham said. “The Bush name is golden in my state. The Bush people are respected in my state, starting with their dad. They have been public servants, they have been good, honorable people. Dubya’s going to be there. Jeb is a fine man every way you can be a fine man.”
But Bush’s Tuesday night speech was a reminder that while he may be “fine,” he also sounds out of step with Republican voters who have awarded Donald Trump and Ted Cruz with the first two primary-contest victories. He promised to work across party lines. He touted his experience in government and his record as a “conservative reform governor.” He went through a detailed list of the policy areas on which his presidency would focus, like improving education, lowering taxes, and cutting the size of government.
Bush also made the case that he’d be the best qualified to take on Hillary Clinton in the general election. The reason? He’d offer a study in contrasts on, uh, transparency. “Here’s the deal,” he said. “To beat Hillary Clinton we need somebody totally transparent, who’s released 34 years of tax returns, who provides 340,000 emails for people to see, whose life is an open book.”
Bush remains not just a little tone deaf to the mood of the GOP electorate. His address Tuesday seemed to ignore what the winners of the two primaries, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, are selling: a “political revolution” and a larger-than-life personality.
“We need a president with a steady hand, with a proven record, who has a servant’s heart, who doesn’t believe it’s all about him,” Bush said. That may be the president America needs, but is it—is Jeb Bush—what America wants?
