A national poll released earlier this week offered a shocking conclusion: Democratic front-runner Joe Biden’s lead had tanked, while Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders surged ahead toward a statistical three-way tie.
The Monmouth University poll immediately drew criticism, with good reason. Biden has been at the top for months, maintaining at least a 10 point lead over every other candidate, and suddenly he dropped to third place? Not likely. Even the pollsters have admitted as much.
The director of the Monmouth University Poll, Patrick Murray, admitted the poll was an “outlier” even though the group’s methods remained the same.
“This is a product of the uncertainty that is inherent in the polling process,” Murray said in a statement, noting the poll’s high margin of error and small sample size.
Statement from poll director @PollsterPatrick
regarding this week’s poll: [date corrected] pic.twitter.com/Xelpw1pt9j— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) August 28, 2019
“In the end, we must put out the numbers we have,” Murray continued. “They should always be viewed in the context of what other polls are saying, not only as it applies to the horse race, but also for our understanding of the issues that motivate voters in their decision-making process.”
Generally, the poll confirmed what most analysts have been saying for months: Elizabeth Warren is gradually moving up in the polls while Biden’s lead steadily shrinks. The key words being “gradually” and “steadily.”
If anything, the Monmouth poll should reinforce the need for healthy skepticism when it comes to polling, specifically at the national level. Gauging the national sentiment is actually quite difficult, and polls tend to be wrong as than they’re right. Does 2016 ring any bells?
Polls like this one tend to discredit the practice entirely. A majority of registered voters already doubt many of the surveys they hear about in the news media, according to a survey — ironic, right? — taken last year. Irresponsible numbers breed mistrust, and if pollsters aren’t careful, they might just discredit their own legitimacy.
