Between the Republican National Convention and the Democratic National Committee’s e-mail leak, Donald Trump has experienced some wind in his sails and a bump in the polls. For the first time in this election, polling guru Nate Silver predicts that Trump would win the election if it were held today.
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According to Silver’s website 538.com, Trump has a 57.5 percent chance of winning the election if it were held today. The Republican nominee would win most swing states, including Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Nevada and come close to winning blue states like Maine, Minnesota, and Michigan.
This bump is largely to do with new polls from CBS, CNN/ORC, LA Times/USC, Gravis, and Rasmussen all having Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton.
Silver is still fairly bullish on Clinton pulling it out in the end, his forecast predicts she still has a 58 percent chance of winning in the longterm and Trump would only win the swing-states of Florida, Ohio, and Iowa in November.
Nonetheless, Trump’s polls and predictions are rising fast and there’s no telling the long term ramifications of the DNC e-mail leak or how the debates will shape the election. Either way, this is the best news for Trump so far in the election.
