MILWAUKEE — Wisconsin is a geographically and demographically diverse state, and following tonight’s returns by county and the exit polls will be a good demonstration of how much Donald Trump has scrambled the GOP electorate.
Here’s a simplified version of the tale: the previous two GOP nominating contests saw the establishment candidate defeat a varied field, with a Religious Right candidate running a respectable, but distant second place. That was McCain over Huckabee and Romney over Santorum. It was easy to see the runner-up as representing “evangelicals” or “conservatives” or “Christian conservatives.
We’ve learned this election that the Santorum and the Huckabee vote was a combination of the Religious Right vote and the populist vote. This year, Donald Trump has peeled off that populist vote and turbo-charged it.
So as you look at Wisconsin, some parts of the state that were Santorum Country will be Trump Country — that is, the populist vote. Some parts of the state that were Romney Country will be Cruz Country (and to a lesser degree, Kasich Country) — that will be the white-collar suburbs.
Then there will be Santorum-Cruz country, such as Sheboygan County. This is the Religious Right vote.
To see what I mean about Santorum in 2012, look at the exit polls. Santorum scored 37 percent statewide. So with whom did he overperform? Here are some areas
With the unmarried: 40 percent; with Democrats: 44 percent; voting primarily out of dislike for the other candidates: 42 percent.
Separately, he overperformed with the very conservative: 43 percent; evangelical: 43 percent; Protestant attending weekly: 42 percent; Catholic attending weekly 43 percent; abortion as top issue: 63 percent.
That first group could be called the populist vote. The second group could be called the Religious Right vote.
Geographically, the counties Huckabee and Santorum both won were the rural counties from the middle of the state west — where Trump polls strongest. Santorum also overperformed in counties like Sheboygan and Fon Du Lac, which are disproportionately German and Dutch — likely correlating with strong religious observance.
Timothy P. Carney, The Washington Examiner’s senior political columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]. His column appears Tuesday and Thursday nights on washingtonexaminer.com.
