In a recent strategy session, Barack Obama’s campaign manager, David Plouffe, declared his candidate “at about a dead heat” with Republican John McCain in Montana, Alaska and North Dakota.
Just four years ago, the three states voted for President Bush over Democratic candidate John Kerry by 20, 28 and 27 points respectively, yet Obama’s campaign aides say they are aiming for victories in these and other traditionally “red” states.
Political analysts said it was unlikely Obama would be able to pull off wins in such places, but Obama could still force McCain to defend traditional Republican strongholds, diverting his attention and scarce funds from battleground states.
“I don’t think ultimately [Obama strategists] believe they are going to win in states like Alaska, Montana and Georgia,” said Todd Harris, who served as communications director for McCain’s 2000 presidential bid. “But their presence in those places, if sustained, will force the McCain campaign to allocate resources to states that otherwise he would have taken for granted.”
Obama’s campaign recently announced a plan to put staff in all 50 states and on Monday released a second general election TV spot in many of the red states he is targeting, including Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina and Virginia.
Obama’s financial resources already vastly outweigh McCain’s, and that gulf is expected to widen because Obama has backed out of public financing, which would have limited his spending. Harris said this would allow Obama to “treat each of these states like little electoral petri dishes, where they can do some early experiments and see if anything pans out.”
Plouffe, who briefed reporters recently on the campaign’s strategy, said polls in traditionally red states show that Obama is closing in on McCain.
In North Carolina, for instance, where Bush beat Kerry by 14 points, McCain is only leading by about four points, according to a Monday RealClearPolitics average. In Georgia, McCain is ahead of Obama by about eight points, according to the Web site’s average. Bush took the state by 18 points four years ago.
But Obama’s best bet for winning red states is in places where the GOP won narrowly in 2000 and 2004: Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Colorado and Virginia.
Virginia has not backed a Democrat for president in 44 years but is now in play, says Democratic consultant Tony Bawidamann, in part because popular former governor Mark Warner is running on the Democratic ticket for the U.S. Senate against a less popular former Republican governor, Jim Gilmore, which could cost McCain voters who might gravitate to Obama’s message of change.
“You now have the synergy of a coordinated campaign,” Bawidamann said.
