Shell-shocked Georgia Republicans are scrambling to heal a party torn asunder and regroup for 2022 as they slowly dig out from the political rubble of President Biden defeating former President Donald Trump and Democrats capturing both Senate seats.
Gov. Brian Kemp began convening weekly meetings of his political team within days of the Republican Party’s stunning losses in a pair of Senate runoff elections Jan. 5 — part of preparations to run for reelection next year. But most prominent Georgia Republicans, still processing the devastation of the 2020 election cycle and contemplating next steps, have stayed out of sight and kept their powder dry.
Besides the trio of losses, the likes of which Republicans had not experienced since the early 1990s, a blood feud between Kemp and Trump has deeply divided the party. The former president’s supporters are angry with Kemp for affirming Biden’s victory in Georgia; the governor’s allies blame Trump for discouraging Republican turnout in the Senate runoffs with unfounded claims that the November election was stolen.
Republicans are waiting to see what happens next before making a move, whether they are eyeing a campaign against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock or mulling a primary challenge to Kemp that Trump has promised to endorse.
“It’s almost like we’re hung over from what happened in November, December, and January, and nobody wants to discuss it,” said Republican strategist Chip Lake, adviser to 2020 Senate candidate and then-Rep. Doug Collins. “And ‘hung over’ is a good word because our state’s never seen anything like it. We need to sober up before we start talking about the next cycle in Georgia.”
Georgia Republicans are faring better than their brethren in other states. The state party has not condemned the governor for supporting the will of the voters in the presidential election, as the Arizona GOP did with its censure of Doug Ducey. Neither has the Georgia Republican Party issued a proclamation declaring the Jan. 6 storming of the United States Capitol by grassroots Trump supporters a “false flag” to discredit Trump, as the Oregon GOP did.
Kemp is so far having a smooth legislative session, with no major opposition from Republican lawmakers — to be expected for a governor poised to endure a grueling fight for renomination. But Republicans nonetheless face obstacles along the road to recovery from the events of the last three months, and their fallout, that will not be easy to overcome. For starters, Georgia is no longer ruby-red territory.
Demographic changes building for nearly a decade, combined with voters in suburban Atlanta rejecting Trump’s provocative populism, particularly women, have transformed Georgia into a legitimate swing state. That has coincided with the rise of Democrat Stacey Abrams, a former state legislator who narrowly lost to Kemp in 2018 and plans to run for governor again in 2022. Republicans concede the Democrats under Abrams have built a stronger state party and have proven more effective at political organizing.
To hold the governor’s mansion and oust Warnock, Republican strategists say, the party needs to come up with an answer to Abrams and revamp its voter turnout strategy to fit the reality that 2020 was not a fluke. “The conversation among Georgia Republicans right now should be: How do we take on Stacey Abrams and her network?” said Ryan Mahoney, a Republican strategist and senior adviser to Kemp’s 2018 campaign.
“We are a purple state,” Mahoney added. “We will continue to be that way until Republican grassroots leaders and elected officials put in the hard work to reclaim our red-state status.”
For Georgia Republicans, 2020 was the ultimate nightmare.
Biden beat Trump by 11,779 votes Nov. 3, becoming the first Democrat to win the state since Bill Clinton in 1992. On Jan. 5, Warnock ousted Republican Kelly Loeffler, whom Kemp appointed to fill a Senate vacancy one year earlier. Adding insult to injury, incumbent Republican David Perdue lost to Democrat Jon Ossoff the same day after finishing ahead two months earlier but short of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff.
Nearly one month later, top Georgia Republicans have no idea who the party is going to field against Warnock in 2022, when he runs for a full, six-year term. Indeed, it is a decision no GOP official in the state seems to be in charge of — but one that needs to be made soon given the amount of money that needs to be raised. Collins, Loeffler, and Perdue are possible candidates and are keeping their options open.
Lately, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene seems to be the one Georgia Republican who is not lying low. The freshman congresswoman from the northwest corner of the state has gained notoriety for promoting a range of wild conspiracy theories, some with anti-Semitic and racist overtones. It is not exactly the sort of attention Georgia Republicans believe is going to help neutralize the party’s dilemma. Yet they are in danger of being mired in a bigger problem over the next two years, in the form of a full-blown civil war.
Trump is convinced he rightfully won Georgia and believes Kemp, Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger refused to take steps available to them to correct the results. He has vowed to exact revenge in the 2022 primaries. If the 45th president follows through, the “MAGA,” populist faction of the party could split from the traditional wing of the GOP, allowing Democrats to waltz to victory. But there are hurt feelings on both sides.
Republican leaders in Georgia argue Trump is single-handedly responsible for the Democratic victories in the Senate runoffs. The former president’s unfounded stolen election claims and attempt to strong-arm Raffensperger into “finding” him enough votes to beat Biden simultaneously supercharged Democratic turnout and depressed support for Loeffler and Perdue, establishment Republicans say. Mending fences, a top priority for party insiders, appears elusive for the foreseeable future.
“We have to deal with the 500-pound gorilla in the room, and that’s the presidential election and the circular firing squad it caused,” said Republican Jack Kingston, a Trump supporter and former Georgia congressman.
