Polls suggest that Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, who saved her spot as the No. 3 Republican in the House this week despite a small mutiny over her support to impeach former President Donald Trump, is in deep trouble back home.
But the odds of her losing her seat are very long — as in a 1-53 chance.
According to an analysis shared with Secrets, only one Wyoming House member has been defeated in a primary — ever.
“Since statehood, Wyoming’s U.S. representatives have run for reelection 53 times and have won renomination 52 times,” said the analysis from Eric J. Ostermeier, a research fellow with the University of Minnesota’s Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs.
Wyoming’s US Reps have exited the chamber thusly: 8 ran for US Senate, 7 lost reelection bids, 4 did not run for any office, 1 ran for GOV, 1 appointed to cabinet, 1 lost a primary. What will be Liz Cheney’s exit? https://t.co/wrHyKW2nBv
— Eric Ostermeier (@SmartPolitics) February 2, 2021
Ostermeier, also the founder of Smart Politics and a curator with the Minnesota Historical Election Archive, added, “Since the first primary for the office in 1912, Wyoming U.S. House members have run unopposed 26 out of 43 times and won north of 70% of the vote in 10 additional primaries.”
He found that the only time an incumbent lost in a primary in Wyoming was in 1968, when Rep. William Harrison, then in his third stint in the chamber, lost to former state GOP Chairman John Wold.
Cheney has come under fire in Washington and back home for being one of 10 House Republicans to vote to impeach Trump in his second impeachment case. She won a challenge this week to bump her out of House GOP leadership in a 145-61 vote.
She’s drawn a primary challenge from state Sen. Anthony Bouchard, and others are expected to join in.
Cheney, however, has over a year to recover, and President Biden’s emerging war on the West and energy are giving the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney massive issues to run on. She has also won credit for sticking to her guns on Trump, and there are some who would like to see her as a future House speaker.
And according to allies, the attack on Cheney from Republicans could give her a boost. Recently, Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz flew to Wyoming to campaign against her, and Secrets was told that there has been a slight backlash to his involvement.
The nearly 1k people who showed up in late January to hear me speak in Cheyenne really seemed upset I was there?
Liz Cheney can’t draw a crowd in Wyoming because she is only capable of inspiring Washington lobbyists. https://t.co/f682VSDRd3
— Matt Gaetz (@mattgaetz) January 30, 2021
“Don’t come into Wyoming and tell us how to vote,” one Wyoming GOP political adviser said.
Back to Ostermeier’s study, here are his key points pulled from the analysis:
- A Smart Politics analysis finds that Wyoming’s U.S. representatives have run for reelection 53 times since statehood and won renomination in 52 of them.
- The only legislator to fall short was William Harrison — during his third stint in the chamber. Harrison served two terms (1951-1955) before a failed U.S. Senate bid in 1954 and then two more terms (1961-1965) before getting unseated during the 1964 Democratic landslide by Teno Roncalio. Following his return to the U.S. House in a 1966 open seat race, Harrison lost the 1968 Republican primary by 2.2 points to geologist and former state party Chairman John Wold.
- Since the first primary for the office in 1912, Wyoming U.S. Representatives have run unopposed 26 out of 43 times and won north of 70% of the vote in 10 additional primaries. Just six incumbents were victorious with less than 70% of the vote — although each won by healthy double-digit margins: Republicans Vincent Carter in 1930 (54.8%) and 1932 (68.2%), William Harrison in 1962 (62.4%), Barbara Cubin in 2004 (55%) and 2006 (60%), and Liz Cheney in 2018 (67%).
- Wyoming’s at-large seat has been held by 19 men and women across 23 different stints over the decades. The previous 22 exits have been caused by eight representatives running for U.S. Senate, seven losing in the general election, four not running for reelection or for any office, one running for governor, one receiving a U.S. Cabinet appointment, and one losing the primary.
