Emmanuel Macron’s victory over Marine Le Pen was not only one of the most decisive electoral victories in modern French history, it is also one of the most symbolic. France’s presidential elections have been widely perceived as a litmus test on the future direction of both the European Union and Western democracies.
Both Brexit and President Trump’s electoral victory signaled the possibility of a growing global populist movement. Had Le Pen won, it would have furthered the narrative that a shift towards nationalism and isolationism was gaining traction.
However, France bucked the trend this Sunday by electing a 39-year-old moderate rejecting Le Pen’s isolationist, nationalist, anti-EU agenda.
More importantly, France rejected Le Pen’s anti-Muslim agenda.
I lived and studied in France during the mid-1990s when Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie, led the ultra-right Front National Party. Back then it was the elder Le Pen fanning the flames of fear and discrimination. There had always been a complicated relationship between French nationals and Muslims living in France. Many emigrated there from former colonial territories such as Algeria and settled in the Parisian suburbs. I routinely saw law enforcement stop those who they perceived as Arab and demand to see their “papers.” The strain that exists between France’s ethnic minorities and the larger population is a sad reality and is not going to be solved overnight.
Conventional wisdom would assume that because France has been the site of a number of recent terrorist attacks that fear would motivate electoral choices. Instead, France’s decision to elect Macron reflects a pervasive French view that further discrimination is not the answer to improving national security or combatting terrorism.
While it has been widely acknowledged that Macron’s election is a rejection of a more populist movement, it should also be noted that his election is also a rebuke of core socialist policies as well.
Macron did serve in Socialist President Francois Hollande’s administration as a finance minister, but Macron’s policies are anything but socialist in nature. His previous private sector experience as banker with Rothschild seems to have influenced his platform.
Macron asserted that he is for reducing the corporate tax rate to 25 percent and allowing businesses more flexibility to determine total work hours for employees. The 35-hour workweek is considered practically sacred by the French people, so this is a really bold position. Macron has also hinted at entitlement reform, he wants to increase defense spending, and he’s open to intervention in Syria.
Macron also made it clear that he intends to strengthen France’s participation in the EU and its relationship with Germany. By all accounts, Macron’s victory is one for globalism, the EU and NATO.
It is also a blow to Russia who allegedly hacked Macron’s emails, similar to what happened with Hillary Clinton. Perhaps because the French press largely ignored the email hacks, it did not impact the electoral outcome in the same way as it had in the 2016 U.S. elections. It shows Russia that dirty tricks don’t always yield their desired outcome. Furthermore, a strong French-German alliance and a robust European economy makes it more difficult for Russian interests to permeate the region and attempt to expand their sphere of influence.
A united EU also puts the U.S. on notice that the strongest forces in Europe may be at odds with the U.S. on a few key policy areas, namely climate change. It will be interesting to see if and how the U.S. government decides to rectify its differences with the EU on everything from trade to national security.
Macron’s win is just the beginning of the work it will take to unite France and transform its government. The newly-elected president now must use his momentum to build a strong coalition in the upcoming legislative elections this summer. Without allies in the legislative branch, it will be difficult for Macron to make a lasting impact.
(Interesting fact: This is the second-largest victory margin in recent French history, only eclipsed by Le Pen’s father’s loss to President Jacques Chriac in 2002. Chirac’s Rally pour la Republique is closer in ideology to Macron’s En Marche.)
Capri Cafaro (@thehonorablecsc) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. She is a former member of the Ohio State Senate, where she was the Senate minority leader. She is now an Executive in Residence at American University’s School of Public Affairs.
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