‘THEY’RE ABOUT TO COMPLETE A TRIAD’: This week in Washington, Adm. Chas Richard, head of the U.S. Strategic Command and thereby commander of America’s nuclear forces, delivered a sobering message: the U.S. is quickly falling behind both China and Russia in fielding modern, next generation nuclear weapons.
In testimony before the House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee, Richard called China’s rapidly expanding nuclear capability “breathtaking,” and said that the Chinese are well ahead of the pace to double their stockpile by the end of the decade.” But it’s not just the raw number of warheads that has Richard concerned, it’s China’s new nuclear command and control which allows it to integrate land-based missiles, bombers, and submarines to give them “a launch under warning or launch under attack capability” that right now only the U.S. and the Russians possess.
“They’re about to complete a triad … for the first time, they have a complete triad,” Richard said. “They have six second-generation ballistic missile submarines, so they can do continuous at sea deterrent patrols, i.e., a survivable second strike capability and a missile that can range the continental United States from protected bastion in the South China Sea.”
“And you add all of this together, and they can do any plausible nuclear employment strategy regionally. This will backstop their conventional capability and will potentially constrain our options,” he testified. “That is, we will be the ones that are getting deterred if I don’t have the capability to similarly deter them.”
ICBMs IN US TRIAD ON LAST LEGS: As the Biden administration conducts a review of U.S. nuclear strategy, Richard is warning that any delay the Air Force’s Ground Based Strategic Deterrent program, the Northrop Grumman weapon system designed to replace the Cold War-era Minuteman III ICBMs, could result in a failure of the ground-based leg of the U.S. triad.
Richard says the aging Minuteman missiles are still reliable, but they are being patched together with spare parts that are obsolete. “They have a long list of parts that are in very short supply. For example, right now, there’s only two of these launch switches that go into every Launch Control Center,” he said, referring to the underground bunkers where some 400 missiles are controlled. “So, only two in supply. You’ve got to have 45 of them for each Launch Control Center, nobody makes the inside of the switch anymore, no company is going to make the inside of the switch. It’s like asking a company to make a dial-up modem.”
“The Air Force has been consistently pulling rabbits out of the hat to solve these problems,” Richard testified. “I’m afraid there’s a point where they won’t be able to pull the rabbit out of the hat, and the system won’t work.”
AND THEN THERE’S RUSSIA: “Russia, however, remains the pacing strategic nuclear threat. They have aggressively engaged in advanced conventional and nuclear capability development and modernization efforts and are roughly 80% complete while we are at zero,” Richard said.
“It is easier to describe what they’re not modernizing, pretty much nothing, than what they are, which is pretty much everything, including several never-before-seen capabilities and several thousand non New START treaty accountable systems, nuclear armed ICBM hypersonic glide vehicle, nuclear power, nuclear armed underwater vehicle, and Skyfall nuclear powered and nuclear armed cruise missile are examples of asymmetric strategies and weapons designed to offset conventional inferiority.”
THE MOBILE MISSILE THREAT: One thing both nuclear adversaries have that the U.S. does not is road-mobile nuclear-tipped missiles. “This is rapid expansion of their road-mobile capability, and this is an intercontinental ballistic missile that’s on a very large truck. Russia and China have them. We do not,” he said.
“Those are very large countries, and they simply drive the missile around. It is a challenging thing to keep up with them. So, they have this new capability expanding rapidly.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin holds a “Senior Leaders Conference” today at the Pentagon, a semi-annual event in which the joint chiefs of staff and military combatant commanders all meet privately. “The conference provides leaders an opportunity to discuss issues that affect the office of the secretary of defense, the military departments, the combatant commands, and interagency efforts,” said a Pentagon statement. “The Secretary looks forward to these discussions, as they provide valuable advice and assistance in developing the strategic direction of the department.”
President Joe Biden will address the gathering virtually at 2:45 p.m., and Secretary of State Antony Blinken will participate virtually at 3:45 p.m. There will be no media coverage of the event.
AUSTIN: CLIMATE CHANGE ‘EXISTENTIAL THREAT’: During President Joe Biden’s “Leaders Summit of Climate” yesterday, Austin said the “climate crisis” must be addressed if the U.S., or any nation, is to enjoy lasting security.
“We face all kinds of threats in our line of work, but few of them truly deserve to be called existential. The climate crisis does,” Austin said, according to a transcript released by the Pentagon.
“The climate crisis is a profoundly destabilizing force for our world. As the Arctic melts, competition for resources and influence in the region increases. Closer to the equator, rising temperatures and more frequent and intense extreme weather events in Africa and Central America threaten millions with drought, hunger, and displacement,” he said. “As families risk their lives in search of safety and security, mass migration leaves them vulnerable to exploitation and radicalization, all of which undermine stability.”
COMMANDER ‘CONCERNED’ AFGHAN MILITARY WILL FALTER WITHOUT US SUPPORT: In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday, U.S. Central Commander Gen. Frank McKenzie said his worry about pulling all U.S. forces out of Afghanistan based on an arbitrary date, rather than conditions on the ground, is that it will leave the Afghan military without crucial support from American military and civilian enablers.
“I am concerned about the ability of the Afghan military to hold on after we leave; the ability of the Afghan Air Force to fly in particular after we removed the support for those aircraft,” he said. “U.S. and coalition soldiers being present with them on the ground … it’s intelligence, it’s fire support, it’s the enabling things that actually give them an edge over the Taliban.”
Later at the Pentagon, McKenzie said he is working on plans to provide some assistance, such as aircraft maintenance, at remote locations, as well as bases outside Afghanistan where attacks can be launched against al Qaeda if necessary.
‘AS LONG AS WE CAN’: COMMANDER SAYS FENDING OFF TALIBAN WILL END AS US LEAVES AFGHANISTAN
NOT ‘OUT OF STEP’: While McKenzie has made clear in recent days that he would have preferred to keep some U.S. forces in Afghanistan, he insisted yesterday that he’s not at odds with President Joe Biden’s decision.
“My views were fully heard. It was a thoughtful, very thoughtful, very in-depth process that went on over an extended period of time,” McKenzie said. “The president went out of the way to ensure all views were on the table. And so my assessment is, I don’t believe it is out of step at all with the decision that’s been made. I think we all recognize there are risks ahead that follow as a result of that decision, but I would reject the assertion that we’re out of step.”
F-35 ON NOTICE: At yesterday’s House Armed Services Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces hearing, Chairman Rep. Donald Norcross issued a stern warning to the Air Force, Lockheed Martin, and the F-35 Program office that unless the operating costs of the F-35, now running about $38,000 per hour, are brought down, the number planes purchased may be cut.
“We’re very concerned about the actual and projected sustainment costs that have been deemed unaffordable by senior Air Force leaders. This question of estimated costs and affordability could result in a 47% reduction in the Air Force planned inventory goal of 1,763 aircraft just to remain within their budget,” said Norcross. “If this program continues to fail to significantly control and reduce actual and projected sustainment costs, we may need to invest in other, more affordable programs and backfill an operational shortfall of potentially over 800 tactical fighters.”
A ‘GOOD NEWS’ STORY: Meanwhile, House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Adam Smith, a frequent critic of Pentagon acquisition programs, says that he was pleasantly surprised to find that the Northrop Grumman B-21 stealth bomber appears to be on schedule and under budget.
“I’m walking into this briefing with a colleague,” Smith told Mackenzie Eaglen at an AEI event yesterday. “And I said now when I walk in there I’m certain that they’re going to tell me that it’s on time, it’s under budget, and it’s performing better than they expected, because you know that’s what always happens when you walk into these briefs. And I, of course, was being a wiseass, but it turned out to be the case.”
RACE TO FIND LOST SUB: The U.S. is helping search the waters off Bali in a race against time to find an Indonesia submarine that disappeared two days ago and has less than a day’s supply of oxygen left for its 53 person crew.
“We are deeply saddened by the news of Indonesia’s lost submarine, and our thoughts are with the Indonesian sailors and their families. At the invitation of the Indonesian government, we are sending airborne assets to assist in the search for the missing submarine,” said Pentagon press secretary John Kirby in a statement. “Secretary Austin is scheduled to speak with his counterpart, Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto [this] morning to convey our sorrow and to discuss how else the United States can be of assistance.”
NOMINATED: Jill Hruby, of New Mexico, to be undersecretary for nuclear security, Department of Energy, replacing Lisa Gordon-Hagerty.
‘NO WORDS OF MINE ARE EQUAL TO THE TASK’: CENTCOM Commander Gen. Frank McKenzie closed out yesterday’s Pentagon briefing with words from the heart about the end of the U.S. mission in Afghanistan after 20 years, in which 2,488 Americans lost their lives, and another 20,722 were wounded. Here’s what he said:
“So, you know, recently I’ve been asked — and I was asked twice as the SASC today what I would tell someone who lost a child or husband or wife in Afghanistan. So, I just want to tell you what I would tell them, and it would be this: that nothing I could say, no words of mine are equal to the task of comforting someone who’s lost a loved one at war. It would be, in fact, presumptuous of me to try to do that. What few words I can offer would attempt to tell those who have to deal with the empty seat at the table, the voice that will not be heard again, the missing laugh at the center of a gathering is this: We fought to protect our country and to give others a chance to choose their own destiny. There’s no better, higher thing to fight for. That’s why I went to war, that’s why my son went to war. So, their loss, I would say, is not in vain. In fact, I would reject that. If I can paraphrase from Second Timothy, ‘they fought the good fight, they finished their race and they kept the faith even into death.’ And so I’ll close with a motto from my service, Semper Fidelis.”
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The Rundown
AP: Russian troops start pulling back from Ukrainian border
Washington Examiner: Five reasons Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal is the right move
Washington Examiner: Five reasons Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal is a big mistake
Washington Examiner: ‘As long as we can’: Commander says fending off Taliban will end as US leaves Afghanistan
Washington Examiner: US ‘commuting to work’ to fight al Shabab in Somalia after Trump pullout
Washington Examiner: Czech officials crack down on Russian spy headquarters
Washington Examiner: Biden expected to recognize Armenian genocide, despite risk Turkey will retaliate
Washington Examiner: A conversation with Retired General Jack Keane
Washington Examiner: Chinese-born chemist convicted of stealing $120M in US trade secrets for CCP
USNI News: Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group Could Extend Stay in Middle East to Cover Afghanistan Withdrawal
AP: U.S. Troops In Afghanistan Begin Packing Gear In Pullout Prep
AP: Panel: End commanders’ power to block military sex cases
Bloomberg: Pentagon Is $7.1 Billion Short on F-35 Operating Costs, GAO Says
Air Force Magazine: HASC Won’t Plus Up F-35 Request in Fiscal 2022 Budget
Politico: U.S. Troops Increasingly Vulnerable To Directed-Energy Attacks, Pentagon Tells Lawmakers
Military.com: How COVID-19 Prepared The Military For Future Biological Warfare
Stars and Stripes: Pentagon Aims To Appraise Climate Hazards At Major U.S. Bases Within A Year
Air Force Magazine: USAF Releases New Airpower Doctrine
Military.com: An MQ-9 Drone Is Teaming Up With A Navy Warship To Obliterate Targets At Sea
Military.com: 53 Women Officially Become Marines at Formerly All-Male Boot Camp
Military Times: STRATCOM Boss Clarifies Comments On ‘Zero’ Extremism In His Organization
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Russia’s sort-of Ukraine military withdrawal
Calendar
FRIDAY | APRIL 23
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “The Future of the Transatlantic Partnership with Afghanistan,” with former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright; Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission Chairwoman Shaharzad Akbar; former EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Federica Mogherini; former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan James Cunningham, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council; and Fred Kempe, president and CEO of the Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar: “Securing Critical Minerals Supply Chains,” with Andrew Miller, product director at Benchmark Minerals Intelligence; Andrew DeWit, professor at the Rikkyo University School of Economic Policy Studies; and Marco Giuli, researcher at the Free University of Brussels’s School of Governance. https://www.csis.org/events/securing-critical-minerals-supply-chains
12 p.m. — Heritage Foundation and Texas A&M University Bush School of Government and Public Service webinar: “U.S. Intelligence: How Does It Adapt to a Rapidly Changing National Security Landscape?” with former Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence Steve Cambone, associate vice chancellor for cybersecurity initiatives at Texas A&M University; Gary Ross, associate professor and director of intelligence studies at Texas A&M University in Washington, D.C.; Jay Silveria, executive director of the Texas A&M Bush School of Government and Public Service; and David Shedd, visiting fellow at Heritage. https://www.heritage.org/defense/event
1 p.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center webinar: ‘The Intersection of Technology and National Security,” with Clint Watts, research fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute; and France Hoang, co-chair of the Stimson Center’s Alfred Lee Loomis Innovation Council. https://www.stimson.org/event
2 p.m. — The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion “The Outlook for Air and Space Power,” with Royal Air Force Chief of the Air Staff Mike Wigston; and Mackenzie Eaglen, AEI resident fellow. http://www.american.com/watch/aei-livestream
TUESDAY | APRIL 27
8:30 a.m. — Raytheon Technologies First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call https://investors.rtx.com/events/event-details/first-quarter-2021-earnings-conference-call
12:40 p.m. — Modern War Institute at West Point and the Lieber Institute for Law and Land Warfare virtual event: “The Future Of Proxy Warfare,” with Maj. Alex Deep, MWI fellow; Army strategist Maj. Matt McDaniel; and British army officer and attorney Maj. Jenny Maddocks. https://lieber.westpoint.edu/event/the-future-of-proxy-warfare/
1 p.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research event “A conversation with Commander of U.S. Central Command,” with Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie; and Elaine McCusker, resident fellow, AEI. https://www.aei.org/events/a-conversation
1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security conversation: “The U.S. Army’s Strategic Priorities,” with John Whitley, acting Secretary of the Army; Gen. James McConville, chief of staff of the Army; and Gen. John Murray, commanding general of Army Futures Command; moderated by Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow and director, CNAS Defense Program. https://cnas.zoom.us/webinar/register
2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments virtual roundtable on “The future of the U.S. Navy,” with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday; and Thomas Mahnken, president and CEO, CSBA. https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register
WEDNESDAY | APRIL 28
TBD — U.S. House of Representatives hosts a joint session of Congress to receive an address by President Joe Biden. https://docs.house.gov/floor/
10 a.m. — House Appropriations Homeland Security Subcommittee hearing on “Coast Guard Readiness,” with Adm. Karl Schultz, commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard. http://appropriations.house.gov
10 a.m. — Air Force Research Laboratory commander Brig. Gen. Heather Pringle; and Joel Mozer, chief scientist of the U.S. Space Force; hold roundtable discussion with members of the media. https://afresearchlab.com/
10:30 a.m. — Boeing conference call to release financial results for the first quarter of 2021, with David Calhoun, Boeing president and CEO; and Greg Smith, executive vice president of enterprise operations and CFO. https://investors.boeing.com/investors
11 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing on “The Department of Defense’s Financial Improvement and Audit Readiness Plan: FY2020 Audit Results and the Path Forward,” with Douglas Glenn, deputy CFO of the Defense Department; Wesley Miller, senior official performing the duties of the assistant secretary of the Army for financial management/comptroller; Alaleh Jenkins, performing the duties of the assistant secretary of the Navy for financial management/comptroller; and Stephen Herrera, principal deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force for financial management/comptroller. http://www.armedservices.house.gov
THURSDAY | APRIL 29
9 a.m. — Northrop Grumman conference call to release earnings and financial results for the first quarter of 2021 https://edge.media-server.com
10 a.m. — House Appropriations Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing: “Violent Extremism and Domestic Terrorism in America: The Role and Response of DOJ,” with Jill Sanborn, assistant director for the FBI Counterterrorism Division; and Brad Wiegmann, deputy assistant attorney general for the National Security Division. http://appropriations.house.gov
11 a.m. — House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing: “FY2022 United States Navy and Marine Corps Budget,” with Acting Secretary of the Navy Thomas Harker; Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday; and Commandant of the Marine Corps Gen. David Berger. http://appropriations.house.gov
11 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee and House Foreign Affairs Asia, the Pacific, Central Asia and Nonproliferation Subcommittee joint hearing on “Maritime Security in the Indo-Pacific and the UN Convention for the Law of the Sea,” with retired Navy Adm. Scott Swift; Bonnie Glaser, senior adviser for Asia and director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ China Power Project; and Daniel Russel, vice president for international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute. http://www.armedservices.house.gov
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“You are either on Team Constitution, or you are not, and if you are not, you have no place in my forces.”
Adm. Chas Richard, commander of U.S. Strategic Command, discussing extremism in the ranks at a Thursday Pentagon briefing.
