There are only two weeks left before the 2022 midterm elections, and several gubernatorial races across the United States remain close as the finish line draws near.
Several governors who are running for reelection are facing steep competition from their opponents, and with only 14 days left before Election Day, polling ranks many of the races as toss-ups. While some governors are all but confirmed to win reelection next month, such as Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) and Gov. Kay Ivey (R-AL), other governors may have to pack up their bags if they end up losing reelection.
Gov. Steve Sisolak of Nevada
Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak’s reelection campaign against Republican challenger Joe Lombardo is neck-and-neck as of Tuesday morning, with both candidates winning in 50 simulated races out of 100, according to FiveThirtyEight. The results from Tuesday mark a contrast from polling conducted in September, when Sisolak, Nevada’s first Democratic governor since 1999, won in 67 scenarios out of 100, according to Newsweek.
Polling from FiveThirtyEight shows Lombardo leading Sisolak 46.2% to 45.4%, making the GOP challenger’s lead less than 1 percentage point.
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Gov. Tony Evers of Wisconsin
While not nearly as tight as Nevada’s gubernatorial election, Evers (D-WI) is only just ahead of Tim Michels, the Republican challenger. Evers won 54 simulated races out of 100 between him and Michels, while his opponent only won 46 races, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Evers’s lead in the race has lost a lot of momentum ahead of the final two weeks of the election. In August, the Democratic candidate won in 80 out of 100 scenarios projected by FiveThirtyEight, Newsweek found. Recent polling shows Evers only having 48% of the vote, compared to Michels’s 47.4%.
Gov. Laura Kelly of Kansas
Kelly (D-KS) is slightly favored to win Kansas’s gubernatorial election, winning 61 races out of 100 as of Tuesday compared to the 39 won by Derek Schmidt, the Republican candidate, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Schmidt had initially been poised to be the winner of the election until August, when Kelly took the lead. But like some of her fellow Democratic governors, she had a stronger lead a few weeks back, winning 70 times out of 100 in September, according to Newsweek.
Kelly holds a larger lead than some other Democratic governors, leading Schmidt by 49.2% compared to his 47.5% of the popular vote, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York
Hochul (D-NY) is largely favored to win reelection next month, as she has won 97 races conducted by FiveThirtyEight on Tuesday, while her opponent, Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY), won only three. However, Zeldin has gained serious ground in the gubernatorial race, with a Quinnipiac University poll showing Hochul having a smaller-than-expected lead over Zeldin of 4%. Previous polls had shown Zeldin trailing by as many as 15 points behind the New York governor.
Hochul is running for reelection after taking on the role of governor in August 2021, when former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) resigned following several controversies. The two will debate each other Tuesday evening.
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Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan
Whitmer (D-MI) came out as the winner in 87 out of 100 simulated races against Republican challenger Tudor Dixon as of Tuesday, according to FiveThirtyEight. Her chances of winning reelection are higher than other governors such as Sisolak and Kelly, but not as strong as Hochul.
In a recent Mitchell-MIRS poll, however, Michigan’s gubernatorial race is much closer, with Whitmer having a slight lead of 49% compared to Dixon’s 47%, with 3% undecided. The poll, conducted on Wednesday, surveyed a total of 541 likely voters and had a margin of error of 4.21%, according to local TV station WLUC.
Tudor and Whitmer are set to debate each other Tuesday evening.
