TEN MORE DAYS, then recall mercifully comes to a vote. Here are some items to consider over the weekend, while the candidates hopscotch California. As Linda Richman would say, “talk amongst yourselves.” (1) Jumping on the Bandwagon, or Life in the Slow Lane? State senator Tom McClintock won’t quit the race, despite pressure from the upper echelons of California Republicans to rally behind a consensus candidate (you know who). “I don’t know what it is that people find so astonishing about a politician who actually keeps his promises,” McClintock told reporters yesterday. “I promised at the beginning of this campaign that I would see it through to the finish line, and I keep my promises.”
That forces Arnold Schwarzenegger and company to resort to Plan B: Pick up endorsements from big-name California Republicans, create an aura of momentum, and hope that siphons support from his conservative rival. Yesterday, Arnold received the backing of former recall candidate Bill Simon and the state’s GOP county chairmen. Today may bring an endorsement from recall organizer Darrell Issa–next week, maybe a thumbs-up from another recall alum, Peter Ueberroth.
Second-guessing Team Arnold is one of recall’s favorite parlor games, but on this one the gang in Santa Monica seems to have it right. Schwarzenegger stayed on message before and after Wednesday’s debate: It’s not personal, he respects McClintock and thinks they’d make a great team in Sacramento. Even Simon wouldn’t tell McClintock to quit the race when asked yesterday on Sean Hannity’s radio show if he had a message for his fellow conservative. It’s the polar opposite of former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan’s mistake in last year’s Republican primary, when he lectured conservatives on abortion and immigration. Time will tell if Arnold’s approach proves to be more productive.
(2) Will Gray Remain a Good Guy–Even If It Means Finishing Last? The only thing more bizarre than the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals’ smackdown of the ACLU is the possibility that Gray Davis might go wire-to-wire in recall without going negative on his opponents.
Yesterday, Davis raised the stakes by telling reporters that if Arnold didn’t stop lying about his record (yes, there’s a little Bob Dole in all of us, even Democrats), Arnold should have the decency to debate him. Unfortunately for the governor, only a few hours later the Los Angeles Times and CNN pulled to plug on a debate they had planned for next Tuesday.
Will Davis do a number on either Schwarzenegger or Bustamante (or both) in the next 10 days? It’s keeping in character–this is the man, after all, who spent about $7 million to destroy Riordan last year, then nearly $70 million savaging Simon. But it probably depends on the polls: How many Democrats plan to vote yes on recall and yes on Bustamante and how many independents plan to vote yes on recall and yes on Arnold? But a last-minute smear comes with a catch. To the extent that Davis has narrowed the recall gap, it’s because he’s stayed on the high road–signing legislation rather than faxing hit pieces on Arnold, as his operative famously did two years ago. Facing the gallows, the “new” Gray seemingly has done more official business in the past four weeks than the “old” Gray did in his first four-year term. The press won’t like a return to “old” Gray. (Note: This does not prevent a massive, last-minute independent expenditure by an interest group with plenty to fear–i.e., the gambling tribes.)
(3) Prop. 54, Where Are You? On Monday, a Sacramento judge told Bustamante to stop running ads against Proposition 54 (starring Cruz, and filmed at one of his campaign rallies) because the lieutenant governor was violating the state’s campaign finance laws. It’s now Friday, and the No-on-54 spots are still running.
On Wednesday, Bustamante’s campaign attorney said the ads couldn’t be stopped without breaching preexisting contracts with television stations. Besides, they claim, it takes four weeks’ notice to stop an ad buy. That’s news to the local affiliates, who generally treat candidates as preferred customers come election time and would gladly cut a deal with Bustamante if only he asked.
If the ads continue to run next week, there may be a backlash against Bustamante for defying the court. And there’s the not-so-insignificant matter of returning the $4 million in tribal gambling proceeds that made the ad buy possible, as per the judge’s order. Watch for Bustamante to claim the money’s all spent.
(4) The Name Is Bond . . . Ticking Time Bond. On Tuesday, the house of cards that is the state budget lost part of its shaky foundation when a Sacramento superior court judge blocked the sale of a $2 billion bond to cover the state’s pension payments. The decision was a victory for the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, which claimed that the bond violated a state constitutional ban against racking up more than $300,000 of debt without a two-thirds vote in the legislature and ballot approval.
If that sounds bad, wait and see what happens if and when the courts deep-six another bond the state wants to sell to gloss over a $10.7 billion deficit in the last fiscal year. That case was filed earlier this week by the Pacific Legal Foundation, which argues that the $300,000 debt limit can only be surpassed for public works projects like road construction.
If Schwarzenegger wants to close out his campaign on an anti-Sacramento theme, then discussing the bond fallacy and the growing possibility of a fiscal meltdown is an easy way to explaining the failings of Sacramento’s ways under Davis. Arnold should have raised it during Wednesday’s debate; he’s shouldn’t let it go unmentioned before October 7.
(5) You Paid How Much for That? Many Californians are in for a surprise when they get their mail this weekend. The state’s Department of Motor Vehicles is sending out this year’s vehicle license fee assessment (the car tax) and for many drivers it’ll be a bad case of sticker shock.
Earlier this summer, the Davis administration sat by idly while the state car tax was tripled to raise a little over $4 billion to help close the budget deficit (Davis, doing his best Sergeant Schultz imitation, said he could do nothing about it because of a legal trigger raising the tax in times of financial emergency). According to the California DMV, the average price of a new car sold in California is a little under $19,500. Buy a 2003 Ford Explorer LS, for example, and the tax goes from $182 to $651. That’s not a crushing blow to most working-class Californians, but it’s a definite inconvenience–one that’s easy to pin on the governor.
Talk about bad timing: right as recall qualified back in July, car owners began receiving notices that their renewal fees had tripled. Talk about potentially worse timing: think of the mood voters will be in if they put their VLF bill in the mail the same day they vote on Davis’s future.
Bill Whalen is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, where he follows California and national politics.
