The tussle in Brussels: Assessing Trump’s ‘success’ at NATO as allies lick their wounds

TRUMP’S ‘SUCCESS’ AT NATO: President Trump is in London today making life difficult for Prime Minister Theresa May by criticizing her handling of Brexit, suggesting that by ignoring his advice she has put a trade deal with the U.S. in peril. He’s also praising her chief rival Boris Johnson — who just quit May’s cabinet — as someone who would make a “great prime minister.” Trumps’ decidedly undiplomatic comments came in an explosive interview with the UK Sun newspaper. The president is meeting with May today, while avoiding central London where a big balloon depicting him as a baby in diapers clutching a mobile phone is floating over street protests.

Yesterday’s spectacle in Brussels seems so far away, even though it was still unfolding as we were publishing the newsletter just as the president was wrapping up his hastily-called news conference. To the extent Trump succeeded at the NATO summit, he succeeded in totally dominating the optics of the two-day meeting of member nations by foot-stomping his displeasure with the pace of military budget increases. Trump also succeeded in keeping the spotlight on his pet issue to the detriment of the other agenda items at the summit, such a NATO’s new rapid reaction force, or the strategy for Afghanistan where progress has been slow and hard to define.

NO NEW COMMITMENT: What Trump did not succeed at was securing any new commitment from the allies to increase or accelerate the pledges they made four years ago to spend 2 percent of their gross domestic product on their own defense by 2024. That was made clear by both NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and French President Emmanuel Macron after Trump left the stage. Pressed by Christiane Amanpour on CNN, Stoltenberg had to concede there was no such agreement, despite Trump’s claims a few hours earlier.

“Everyone’s agreed to substantially up their commitment. They’re going to up it at levels that they’ve never thought of before,” Trump boasted at his news conference. “The commitment was at 2 percent. Ultimately, that’ll be going up quite a bit higher than that.”

No, Stoltenberg said, the allies recommitted only to the same old goal. “We have agreed that we need to make good on the pledges we have made,” he said, even as he made a point of giving Trump credit for a new sense of urgency. “President Trump and his leadership, his strong message, is having a clear impact. Allies are increasing defense spending.”

Trump continues to declare victory. “Great success today at NATO! Billions of additional dollars paid by members since my election. Great spirit!”

GIVE US THE NUMBERS: One thing that was not agreed on in Brussels was exactly how much the U.S. and other countries spend on defense as a percentage of GDP.  NATO listed the U.S. percentage as 3.5, while Trump insisted America spends 4.2 percent, and briefly demanded everyone else increase to 4 percent, too. Germany complains that while it spends the second most of any NATO country, its percentage is low because its GDP continues to grow, making 2 percent a moving target.

As the summit was just getting underway on Wednesday, Republican Sen. Mike Lee was introducing the Allied Burden Sharing Report Act, which would require the Pentagon to resume compiling an extensive report that includes the common defense contributions of NATO countries and other allies, including Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand.

TRUMP JUST ‘ONE MAN’: Republican Sen. John McCain, the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, issued a sharp rebuke of Trump’s NATO performance, calling it  “disappointing, yet ultimately unsurprising” and not reflective of how America views the NATO alliance.

“There is little use in parsing the president’s misstatements and bluster, except to say that they are the words of one man. Americans, and their Congress, still believe in the transatlantic alliance and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and it is clear that our allies still believe in us as well,” said McCain, who issued the statement from his home in Arizona where he is undergoing treatment for brain cancer.

THE ROAD TO FINLAND: “Now all eyes turn to Helsinki, where President Trump is set to meet with Vladimir Putin,” said McCain in his admonishment of Trump. “The president’s task is to reverse his disturbing tendency to show America’s adversaries the deference and esteem that should be reserved for our closest allies.”

Trump yesterday again declined to label Putin an enemy of America, a criticism he generally reserves for the “fake news” media. “He’s a competitor. He’s been very nice to me, the times I’ve met him. I’ve been nice to him,” Trump said, insisting Putin was neither friend nor foe. “He’s not my enemy, and hopefully someday, maybe he’ll be a friend, it could happen.”

“Putin is not America’s friend, nor merely a competitor. Putin is America’s enemy — not because we wish it so, but because he has chosen to be,” McCain countered. “He chose to invade Ukraine and annex Crimea. He chose to help the Assad regime slaughter the Syrian people. He chose to attack America’s election and to undermine democratic institutions throughout the world and in Russia itself.”

LOW EXPECTATIONS: Trump said he’s going into Monday’s meeting with Putin “not looking for so much,” but he expects the conversation to focus on Syria, Ukraine and nuclear weapons. “And we will, of course, ask your favorite question about meddling,” he told reporters. “I will be asking that question again … he may deny it. I mean, it’s one of those things. So all I can do is say, ‘Did you?’ and ‘Don’t do it again.’ But he may deny.”

Asked what is the “best deal” he could expect from Putin, Trump waxed rhapsodic. “What would be the ultimate? Well, let’s see. No more nuclear weapons anywhere in the world would be the ultimate, OK? No more wars, no more problems, no more conflict. Let’s find a cure to every disease known to mankind or womankind. That would be my ultimate.”

Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY, AUSTIN GETS THE NOD: Army Secretary Mark Esper, Undersecretary Ryan McCarthy, Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, and Vice Chief Gen. James McConville will be on hand in the Pentagon briefing room this morning to announce where the new Army Futures Command will be based. But several news organizations have reported that the Army has picked Austin, Texas, over other contenders Raleigh, N.C., Minneapolis, Minn., and Philadelphia. The announcement will be streamed on www.defense.gov/live at 10.

The Army calls the establishment of Army Futures Command “the most significant Army reorganization effort since 1973,” and it’s intended to reform the acquisition process to ensure the right weapons are purchased for the wars of the future.

PEOPLE ARE FED UP: Only one question was asked at yesterday’s Trump news conference about the slow pace of progress in Afghanistan. “When the war is going to end in Afghanistan? Because people are fed up now,” a reporter from an Afghan news service ask the president.

“I agree with that. I very much agree,” Trump said. “We’ve made a lot of progress, but it’s been going on for a long time. We’ve made a lot of progress in Afghanistan, I will say.” Trump said he would be meeting with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani immediately after his news conference

LATEST CASUALTY COUNT: Trump talk of progress in Afghanistan came on the same day a U.S. service member was killed in combat there, the second American to die in Afghanistan in less than a week, and the fourth this year.

So far in 2018, the Pentagon has announced the deaths of 18 U.S. service members, including five under non-combat circumstances. Nine American troops have died in Iraq, and one each in Syria, Somalia, Kosovo, Djibouti and Germany.

DEMS URGE PROBE OF PENTAGON MIGRANT CAMPS: Every Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee has petitioned Rep. Mac Thornberry, the Republican chairman, to launch an oversight investigation of the Pentagon’s plans to house thousands of immigrants on U.S. military bases. “Normally, an issue of this magnitude should be handled at the full committee level, but given the intensity of conference and the need for immediate oversight, we feel the House Armed Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigation is uniquely postured to conduct a robust investigation into these matters,” they wrote in a letter to Thornberry yesterday.

The Democrats want to know what exactly has been requested of the Pentagon and how it plans to carry out and pay for the immigration requests. “The use of military infrastructure, real property, and personnel for functions outside of core Department of Defense mission areas warrant congressional oversight from this committee. With these pressing concerns in mind, we request that you promptly initiate an O&I subcommittee investigation, and we look forward to your response,” they wrote.

DOD COUNSEL CONFIRMED: The Senate on Thursday confirmed Paul Ney in a 70-23 vote to be the new general counsel for the Defense Department. Ney, of Tennessee, had last served as chief deputy attorney general of his state and was a top attorney for the Navy. He will now provide legal advice to Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and the Pentagon on a range of policy issues. Ney said he would focus on defining laws around cyber warfare, sexual assault in the military, and detainee litigation related to the military prison at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba.

During his Senate Armed Services confirmation hearing, Ney said Trump might have the authority to wage a preemptive strike on North Korea, and told senators he would advise against time or location limits on any new authorization on the use of military force. That rubbed some senators the wrong way. Sen. Tammy Duckworth, who was wounded while serving in Iraq, said it was disqualifying. “Those opinions are not consistent with the Constitution’s separation of powers and open the door to justifications of unlimited, unilateral military action,” Duckworth said in a statement.

AFTER NO SHOW, REMAINS MEETING BACK ON: The State Department said the U.S. will now meet with North Korean officials on Sunday, after they failed to show for an expected meeting yesterday at the DMZ to discuss the return of American troop remains from the Korean War.

“Vice Chairman Kim Yong Chol agreed in his dialogue with Secretary [of State Mike] Pompeo to have his team meet with an American team in Panmunjom on or around July 12th to move forward with the repatriation of American service members’ remains,” Department of State spokesperson Heather Nauert said in a statement. “Mid day July 12th they contacted us and offered to meet on July 15th. We will be ready.”

‘A VERY NICE NOTE’: Trump shared on social media yesterday what he called “a very nice note” he received from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un last week, in which Kim says he appreciated the “energetic and extraordinary” diplomatic efforts made by the Trump administration.

“The significant first meeting with Your Excellency and the joint statement that we signed together in Singapore 24 days ago was indeed the start of a meaningful journey,” Kim wrote in the note, dated July 6, of the pair’s historic summit on June 12.

“I firmly believe that the strong will, sincere efforts and unique approach of myself and Your Excellency Mr. President aimed at opening up a new future between the DPRK and the U.S. will surely come to fruition,” Kim continued.

NO MENTION OF ‘DENUKING’: Noticeably absent from Kim’s missive was any mention of denuclearization. Yesterday in Brussels, Pompeo insisted he had “a productive conversation” during his latest visit to Pyongyang. “Most importantly, my counterpart, Kim Yong Chol, made a commitment consistent with what President Trump was able to achieve with Chairman Kim, which was they intend to denuclearize, they’re going to accomplish it, and now the task is to get it implemented.”

“We’ll see where it all ends,” Trump said, “but there have been no missile tests, there have been no research where there has been. They have blown up a site. I hear they’re blowing up another missile site.”

NORTH KOREA SMUGGLING: China and Russia “must immediately stop” delivering oil to North Korea, U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley demanded this week in a report that her team filed with the United Nations Security Council.

The analysis by Haley’s staff, obtained by the Washington Examiner, shows that the rogue regime has acquired more fuel in 2018 than the United Nations Security Council permits, thanks to at least 89 surreptitious transfers of fuel to North Korean vessels on the high seas.

NORTHROP GRUMMAN’S NEW CEO: Northrop Grumman announced yesterday that Chairman and CEO Wes Bush will step down next year and will be replaced by Kathy Warden. Bush says he will relinquish the CEO post effective Jan. 1, 2019, but will remain chairman through July 2019.

Warden joins Marillyn Hewson at Lockheed Martin, Phebe Novakovic at General Dynamics and Leanne Caret at Boeing Defense, Space & Security as the latest woman to take charge of a major U.S. defense firm or sector.

NEW PAINT JOB: Trump is looking to give Air Force One a new color scheme to give it a “more American” look. Instead of keeping up with the 55-year-old tradition of white and robin’s-egg blue, the president wants it to be red, white, and blue, Axios reported.

Trump sat down with Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg in the Oval Office in February to personally work out the $4 billion deal for the new 747s. Besides just a redesign of the planes, Trump also wants to make the presidential bed larger and more comfortable.

THE RUNDOWN

NBC News: Pentagon Goes Into ‘Damage Control’ Mode to Reassure NATO Allies

Military Times: As Trump talks about reducing military missions, lawmakers still push to boost troop totals

Breaking Defense: After Chaotic NATO Summit, Trump and Mattis Praise Alliance

Defense One: The Coming Split in NATO

Reuters: Trump says ready to help some NATO states buy U.S. arms

Business Insider: Russia admits defeat on its ‘stealth’ F-35 killer by canceling mass production on the Su-57 fighter jet

Defense News: Top US Air Force general has a space-based proposal for allies

Task and Purpose: Pompeo: The Taliban, Who Live In Afghanistan, Cannot ‘Wait Us Out’

The Hill: Blackwater founder makes new pitch for mercenaries to take over Afghan war

Calendar

FRIDAY | JULY 13

1 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Dialogue of American Foreign Policy and World Affairs: Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and Walter Russell Mead. hudson.org

MONDAY | JULY 16

2 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Pulling at the Strings: Kremlin’s Interference in Elections with a Fireside Chat Between Sens. Mark Warner and Marco Rubio. atlanticcouncil.org

3 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. With Partners Like These: Strategies and Tools for Counterterrorism Cooperation. csis.org

TUESDAY | JULY 17

8 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. S&ET Division Executive Breakfast. ndia.org

4 p.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. Beyond the Hype: Industry’s Experience with OTAs. ndia.org

WEDNESDAY | JULY 18

6:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Institute for Land Warfare Breakfast Series with Lt. Gen. Paul Ostrowski, Principal Military Deputy to the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics and Technology. ausa.org

9 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. US competition with China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran: A conversation with Rep. Michael McCaul. aei.org

11:45 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Conversations on National Security and U.S. Naval Power: Rep. Joe Courtney and Seth Cropsey. hudson.org

THURSDAY | JULY 19

8:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. From Washington to Brussels: A Discussion on the 2018 NATO Summit with with Sens. Jeanne Shaheen and Thom Tillis. csis.org

12 noon. 1030 15th St. NW. Russia’s Interference in the U.S. Judiciary. atlanticcouncil.org

12:30 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Deep Fakes: A Looming Challenge for Privacy, Democracy, and National Security with Sen. Marco Rubio. heritage.org

4 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. No friends, no enemies? Trans-Atlantic relations after Trump’s Europe trip. brookings.edu

FRIDAY | JULY 20

8 p.m. 300 First St. SE. Missile Defense Review: Nuclear Policy Challenges and Opportunities with Rob Soofer, deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and missile defense policy. mitchellaerospacepower.org

ADVERTISEMENT: NDIA invites you to attend the Army Science and Technology Symposium and Showcase August twenty first through twenty third at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in DC. 
Hear from Army Vice Chief of Staff General James McConville and other thought leaders on the future of warfighting and the vision for Army modernization. 
Discover industry’s latest advances in emerging technologies and capabilities in support of The Army Futures Command!

Register today at http://www.ndia.org/ArmyScience

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QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I would have done it much differently. I actually told Theresa May how to do it but she didn’t agree, she didn’t listen to me.”
President Trump telling Britain’s Sun newspaper that the UK prime minister ignored his advice on how to negotiate with the EU over Brexit.

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