‘I THINK KABUL WILL HOLD’: With the Taliban now claiming to control more than 80% of Afghanistan, concern is growing that the U.S.-backed Afghan government could collapse within days or weeks of the final departure of the U.S. military at the end of next month.
“We’re certainly watching with deep concern … the deteriorating security situation and the violence, which is, of course, way too high, and the advances and the momentum that the Taliban seems to have right now,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said on Fox News Sunday. “And they’ve got an air force, a very capable air force, helping defend their troops on the ground. They’ve got very sophisticated special forces who have been in the fight, and they’re brave fighters.”
But districts have been falling to the Taliban without a shot being fired. “What you’ve seen is the encroachment of the Taliban, most of that has been without military action, most of that has been essentially going in and persuading or paying off the local leadership, and they’ve been preparing for that for many, many months,” Armed Services Chairman Sen. Jack Reed said on NBC’s Meet the Press.
As of Friday, the Foundation for the Defense Democracies’ Long War Journal said the Afghan government controlled only 70 of Afghanistan’s 398 districts, less than 18% of the country.
Attention is focused now on the lightly defended Bagram Air Base, just an hour’s drive from Kabul, where several thousand Taliban prisoners are being held, including some top Taliban leaders. If the Taliban could free those prisoners, it could be a stepping stone to the Afghan capital.
“I think Kabul will hold,” Reed said on NBC. “The question is, can it hold long enough to create a political solution between the sides?”
WHAT’S THE TALIBAN GOAL? There is a debate among experts about whether the Taliban will push to take over the capital, where they would face Afghanistan’s most combat capable forces, its elite commando units, or if they are trying to force the U.S.-backed government into deep concessions at the peace talks that are now stalled.
“They’re not moving on the cities right now. They’re taking out the countryside, and now they’re then going to surround the provincial capital,” said Carter Malkasian, a former special assistant to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, at a CSIS event Friday.
“Now, this theory could also be seen in the fact the Taliban have said that they intend on announcing a plan soon for negotiations and put out their own plan for how the peace settlement’s going to go,” Malkasian said. “So, the military pressure they’re applying right now could be a means of creating leverage such that the government will do the things that they would want to see in whatever their peace plan’s going to be.”
‘A CRUSHING DEFEAT’: “The Taliban have outlasted the will of the United States. It was not a hot war, really. It was basically a peacekeeping operation, and we may have to go back now,” said Rep. Adam Kinzinger on NBC. “It is a crushing defeat, and I’m really sad about it, honestly.”
“If the government collapses, Kabul falls, we see the horrible pictures, we see the rise of the Taliban again, and we see safe haven for terrorists to train, we might realize that Afghanistan, though not fun for us, and that was a big sacrifice, was certainly worth not having that be a safe haven,” Kinzinger said on CNN. “I hope I’m wrong, but we might see that.”
“You know, the U.S. and NATO were only carrying out 2% of combat missions. Most of those were targeting ISIS. The rest was stiffening the spine of the Afghan government that was willing to fight as long as they knew the U.S. had their back,” Kinzinger said. “And now you’re seeing this collapse, not because they weren’t heroic in fighting, but because everybody turned their back on them.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: 12:30 p.m. Pentagon River Entrance — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes British Defense Minister Ben Wallace to the Pentagon with an honor cordon arrival ceremony and on-the-record remarks before their meeting.
ALSO TODAY: The Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds a closed hearing on S.J. Res.10 to repeal the authorizations for use of military force against Iraq.
REED: GITMO CLOSING UNLIKELY: In his appearance on NBC yesterday, Democrat Jack Reed, chairman of the Armed Services Committee, conceded that Congress is not likely to grant President Joe Biden’s wish to close the U.S. detention camp at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
“I don’t think we are,” Reed said. “There’s still reluctance, particularly among many of my colleagues on the other side, to bring these prisoners under jurisdiction of a federal court. By the way, that’s where we’ve convicted most of the terrorists that we’ve captured.”
But Reed said Congress does need to address the problem that many of the 40 prisoners are getting on in age and will be needing more advanced medical care. “They’re getting into their 60s and 70s, and we have a humanitarian and a legal obligation to provide them adequate healthcare,” Reed said. “We’re trying to address it in the next National Defense Bill — that at least the healthcare of these individuals will be appropriately monitored.”
PUTTING PUTIN ON NOTICE: On Friday, President Joe Biden spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and insists he delivered a stern warning about the continued ransomware attacks on U.S. businesses emanating from Russia.
“I made it very clear to him that the United States expects when a ransomware operation is coming from his soil, even though it’s not sponsored by the state, we expect them to act if we give them enough information to act on who that is,” Biden said. “And so, it went well. I’m optimistic.”
A White House official briefing reporters on a background conference call said Biden “reiterated that the United States will take necessary action to defend its people and its critical infrastructure in the face of this continuing challenge.”
BIDEN HAS ‘WIDE SET OF CYBER OPTIONS’: On Fox News Sunday, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said while it would not be appropriate for him to discuss future cyber operations in any detail, he did say, “There’s a whole range of tools at the president’s disposal.”
“Some of those tools reside here at the Pentagon and at cyber command,” Kirby said. “And we’re going to be prepared and ready to tee up those options for him whenever he might need them.”
“Our job is to provide options to the president. Options in the cyber realm. Options outside the cyber realm,” but Kirby cautioned, “Just because you face a cyberattack doesn’t mean that that’s how you necessarily respond in kind.”
Asked by Fox’s Chris Wallace if it would be fair to say that the president has a wide set of cyber options, Kirby replied, “That is very fair to say, yes, sir.”
PENTAGON ‘ANALYZING’ HAITI’S REQUEST FOR US TROOPS AFTER ASSASSINATION, SPOKESMAN SAYS
BIDEN BACKS TRUMP IN REJECTING CHINA’S EXPANSIVE MARITIME CLAIMS: In a sharply worded statement marking the fifth anniversary of an international tribunal’s ruling in favor of the Philippines, the U.S. Sunday reaffirmed the Trump administration’s rejection of China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea.
“Nowhere is the rules-based maritime order under greater threat than in the South China Sea,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a statement issued Sunday. “The People’s Republic of China (PRC) continues to coerce and intimidate Southeast Asian coastal states, threatening freedom of navigation in this critical global throughway.”
“The United States reaffirms its July 13, 2020 policy regarding maritime claims in the South China Sea,” the statement said. “We also reaffirm that an armed attack on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft in the South China Sea would invoke U.S. mutual defense commitments under Article IV of the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.”
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Pentagon ‘analyzing’ Haiti’s request for US troops after assassination, spokesman says
Washington Examiner: US blacklists CCP companies for Uyghur abuses and Chinese military connections
AP: China Vows Retaliation After U.S. Blacklists Companies
Washington Examiner: Majority of Democrats believe COVID-19 originated in Wuhan lab: Poll
Reuters: Special Report: Afghan pilots assassinated by Taliban as U.S. withdraws
Washington Post: Top U.S. Commander In Afghanistan To Step Down Monday, Marking A Symbolic End To 20 Years Of War
New York Times: Chinese Fleets Overwhelm Filipino Fisherman
Bloomberg: Pentagon Sees China’s Offensive Space Technology ‘On the March’
Defense One: China’s Aggressive Data Push Worries Military Intel Officials
Straits Times: Japan’s Expansion Of Defence Ties Signals Alarm Over China-Taiwan Flashpoint
AP: “Cyber disruption” stops websites of Iranian ministry
Military.com: Marine Corps Lets Fully Vaccinated Marines Stop Wearing Masks
New York Times: In Surprise Move, Chief Guantanamo Prosecutor Is Retiring Before 9/11 Trial
New York Times: Murder Mystery: What Were Colombian Military Vets Doing in Haiti?
UPI: Bath Iron Works Seeks Assurances Of More Naval Destroyer Orders
San Diego Union-Tribune: Aircraft Carrier Theodore Roosevelt Leaving San Diego As Navy Moves To Integrate F-35
Navy Times: USS Bonhomme Richard Fire Emails Raise Questions About Criminal Charges
Defense News: How Two F-16s from the Air Force’s “Boneyard” will Find a Second Life as the Digital Model for the Fleet
Air Force Magazine: Maintainer Errors Cost Millions in F-22 Damage at Nellis
Air Force Magazine: France Stresses Need for Continued American ISR in African Sahel
New York Times: How Local Guerrilla Fighters Routed Ethiopia’s Powerful Army
AP: Two Jordanians sentenced to 15 years over alleged royal plot
19fortyfive.com: A Sprint and a Marathon: How the United States Can Keep Pace with China
19fortyfive.com: Russia Is Up To No Good Again in the Black Sea
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Iran is emboldened with new attacks on America in Iraq
Calendar
MONDAY | JULY 12
12 p.m. Texas A&M, College Station — National Defense Industrial Association virtual Joint All-Domain Command and Control and All Domain Warfare Symposium, with Air Force Lt. Gen. Clinton Hinote, deputy chief of staff for strategy, integration and requirements. https://www.ndia.org/events
12:30 p.m. Pentagon River Entrance — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes British Defense Minister Ben Wallace to the Pentagon with an honor cordon arrival ceremony, and on-the-record remarks before their meeting.
TUESDAY | JULY 13
8:15 a.m. — National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence virtual Global Emerging Technology Summit with Secretary of State Antony Blinken; Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin; Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo; White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan; Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.; Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa; Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va.; Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind.; House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y.; Rep. Jim Langevin, D-R.I.; Deputy NATO Secretary General Mircea Geoana; former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright; European Commission Executive Vice President Margrethe Vestager; former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen; and former Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work. https://www.eventbrite.com/e/nscais-2021-global-emerging-technology-summit
9:30 a.m. 106 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing for the nominations of Carlos Del Toro to be secretary of the Navy, Gilbert Cisneros to be undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness, Kathleen Miller, to be Pentagon comptroller, Mara Karlin to be assistant secretary of defense for strategy, plans, and capabilities, and Michael Connor to be assistant secretary of the Army for civil works. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/nomination
10:15 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual 2021 Project on Nuclear Issues Summer Conference, with Charles Verdon, administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration. https://www.csis.org/events/poni-2021-virtual-summer-conference
12 p.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace and Mackenzie Eaglen, AEI senior fellow http://www.american.com/watch/aei-livestream
12 p.m. — New America virtual discussion on a new report, “Soleimani’s Shadow: The Fatemiyoun Division and Iranian Proxy Warfare Propaganda,” with co-author Amir Toumaj, co-founder of Resistance Axis Monitor; co-author Arif Ammar; co-author Candace Rondeaux, director of New America’s Future Frontlines; and Ali Alfoneh, senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute. https://www.newamerica.org/international-security/events
3 p.m. — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces Hearing: “Fiscal Year 2022 Budget Request of the Department of Defense for Fixed-Wing Tactical and Training Aircraft Programs.” https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
5 p.m. — Chatham House virtual discussion: “Negotiating the New START Treaty” with Rose Gottemoeller, former undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, and chief U.S. negotiator of the new START treaty; and Patricia Lewis, research director of conflict, science and transformation and director of the Chatham House International Security Programme. https://www.chathamhouse.org/events
WEDNESDAY | JULY 14
9 a.m. — International Institute for Strategic Studies holds a virtual discussion on a new report, “Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Strategic Capabilities and Security on the Korean Peninsula: Looking Ahead,” with Mark Fitzpatrick, associate fellow at IISS; and Anton Khlopkov, founder and director of the Center for Energy and Security Studies. https://www.iiss.org/events/2021/07/north-korea-strategic-capabilities
10:15 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual Project on Nuclear Issues Summer Conference, discussion on “Managing Nuclear Threats in a New Era of Arms Control.” https://www.csis.org/events/poni-2021-virtual-summer-conference
11:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “What’s Next for Ukraine?” with Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk; former Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Danylo Lubkivsky; former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor; and Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/whats-next-for-ukraine
12 p.m. — East-West Center in Washington virtual discussion: “Comrades in Arms: North Korea and Syria,” with Samuel Ramani, politics and international relations tutor at the University of Oxford; Keith Luse, executive director of the National Committee on North Korea; and Ross Tokola, executive associate to the director at the East-West Center. https://eastwestcenter.zoom.us/webinar/register
1 p.m. — Flore Albo LLC webinar “Ransomware: Operational Technology Risk and Solutions,” with Mark Carrigan, an expert on OT cybersecurity; Anthony Belfiore, chief security officer of Aon; Steve Katz, former CISO of Citi; Robert Huber, chief security officer, Tenable.
2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The State of Special Operations Forces,” with Rep. Stephanie Murphy, D-Fla., vice chair of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations. https://www.csis.org/events
3 p.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Science and Technology Innovation Program virtual discussion: “Cybersecurity on the Final Frontier: Protecting Our Critical Space Assets from Cyber Threats, with Brandon Bailey, cybersecurity senior project leader at the Aerospace Corporation’s Cyber Assessments and Research Department; Prashant Doshi, associate principal director of the Aerospace Corporation’s Cyber Security Subdivision; Ryan Speelman, principal director of the Aerospace Corporation’s Cyber Security Subdivision; Erin Miller, executive director of the Space Information Sharing and Analysis Center; and Meg King, director of the WWC Science and Technology Innovation Program https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/cybersecurity
THURSDAY I JULY 15
12 p.m. — R Street Institute virtual discussion: “The Pentagon’s Fiscal Responsibility and Government Waste,” as part of the Pentagon Purse Strings series, with Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa; Andrew Lautz, director of federal policy at the National Taxpayers Union; and Jonathan Bydlak, director of governance at R Street. https://rstreet-org.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. — Washington Space Business Roundtable virtual discussion: “Ensuring America’s Space Leadership in the Face of Growing Global Competition: Vital Role of the Aerospace Sector,” with Sen. John Hickenlooper, D-Colo. https://www.wsbr.org/events/virtual-program
2 p.m. — Intelligence National Security Alliance virtual discussion: “The New IC: Empowering Women and Engaging Men,” with Lt. Gen. Mary O’Brien, Air Force deputy chief of staff for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and cyber effects operations; and Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence Sue Gordon. https://www.insaonline.org/event
3:30 p.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conversation with New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, Democrat, who sits on the House Armed Services Committee. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu
4 p.m. — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness Hearing: “Fiscal Year 2022 Budget Request for Military Construction, Energy, and Environmental Programs,” with Paul Cramer, performing the duties of the assistant secretary of defense for sustainment; Jack Surash, acting assistant secretary of the Army, Installations, environment and energy; Todd Schafer, acting assistant secretary of the Navy, installations, environment and energy; Jennifer Miller, acting assistant secretary of the Air Force, installations, environment and energy. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
FRIDAY | JULY 16
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Religious Freedom and a Free and Open Indo-Pacific,” with Yahya Cholil Staquf, general secretary of Indonesia’s Nahdlatul Ulama; former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, fellow at Hudson; and Kenneth Weinstein, fellow at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I just logistically don’t think it’s possible at this moment. And it’s going to be a massive tragedy … It’s not just going to be a tragedy watching these translators that gave their lives for our country be killed. It’s also going to be a tragedy in the next war, whenever that happens, and we have to convince the locals to be on our side.”
Illinois Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger, on CNN, expressing concern that it’s too late to evacuate translators from Afghanistan in the wake of Taliban advances.
