When the U.S. takes military action against Syrian President Bashar Assad for his chemical weapons attack last Saturday, Russia is unlikely to retaliate.
Two factors underline why.
First off, the Russians do not want to associate themselves with what Assad has done.
While Russian President Vladimir Putin would have signed off on Assad’s use of chemical weapons as a means of destroying rebel holdouts and broadcasting his disdain for the West, Putin doesn’t like the public relations aftermath he is now suffering.
In turn, while Putin is employing his standard distraction-deception-threat strategy in an attempt to shield Assad from blame, his eye is on other agendas. Notably, avoiding new sanctions targeting Moscow and ensuring that the upcoming soccer World Cup — which Putin sees as critical to attract much-needed foreign investment — are accomplished.
This calculation takes on added import due to the international furor that has followed Russia’s March 4 poisoning of a British intelligence agent and his daughter. Putin did not expect the diplomatic blowback that has followed that attack and has been unable to extricate Russia from it.
Put simply, Putin wants Assad’s chemical antics off the news radar. Escalating against the United States in response to any U.S. strikes would not serve that objective.
More importantly, however, Putin knows that these U.S. strikes will not endanger Assad’s continued empowerment and thus Moscow’s overriding strategic interests.
While Putin has a penchant for aggressive surprise actions, he’s also a keen strategist who always looks to the long term. And for Russia, the long term interest is Assad’s retention of power and Russia’s consolidation as the primary power broker in the Middle East.
Pursuing a position as regional overlord, Putin has made significant efforts to strengthen relations with Egypt, Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. The ex-KGB man wants to be the sole leader those nations turn to for fulfillment of their regional interests. In return, he can become the beneficiary of a regional feudalism that bows to Russian military and mercantilist interests.
Entering an escalatory spiral with Trump, a dynamic in which Putin could not ultimately prevail, would greatly risk this agenda.
So yes, when the allied bombs and missiles start falling on Assad, the Russians will speak loudly. But they won’t unholster their stick.
