The latest Rasmussen Reports tracking poll finds that 47% of Americans now say the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror (see crosstabs). That’s up from 43% a month ago and reflects is the highest level of confidence measured since December 2005… The 47% who believe the U.S. and its allies are winning is up significantly from earlier in the year. During the first nine months of 2007, the number believing that the U.S. fell as low as 33% and reached the 40% level just once… In what may be just as significant a finding, only 24% of voters now believe the terrorists are winning. That’s down from 30% a month ago and represents the lowest level of pessimism recorded since 2004. The Rasmussen Reports telephone survey also found that 35% of all American voters expect things to get better in Iraq over the next six months while 32% expect the situation to get worse. That’s the first time in years that a plurality has given a positive assessment on the situation in Iraq. The recent increase in optimism is substantial. Just four months ago, in July, 49% of American voters offered a pessimistic assessment of the situation in Iraq and only 23% expected things to get better… Overall, 36% now believe the American mission in Iraq will ultimately be judged a success while 44% say the history books will judge the long engagement a failure. In July, the view was decidedly more pessimistic. At that time, just 27% thought history would consider the mission a success while 56% took the opposite view.
It seems intuitive that views of the war in Iraq should greatly affect the overall rating for President Bush, and for the Republican party. So far however, the president and the GOP are seeing marginal improvements, at best. It may be that those ratings are ‘lagging’ indicators, or it could be that voters are dissatisfied on other fronts. Or it could be that the public has simply decided that regardless of how well or how poorly the war may be going, they’re ready for it to be over. If that last one is the reason, Republicans shouldn’t expect ‘credit’ for Iraq, regardless of how the war may go between now and the presidential election. It may be that the best they can hope for is for the public to continue to look to downgrade the importance of Iraq as the drawdown of troops continues.
