“What does the GOP need to do in order to keep control of the House and Senate?”
The Washington Examiner asked that question to about a dozen conservative operatives, campaign hands, political scientists, and commentary writers as both parties prepare to do battle in this year’s midterm elections.
At this point, history and numbers are working against the Republicans.
The president’s party has lost congressional seats in 18 of the last 20 midterm elections. Dating back to 1946, the average loss of House seats rises to 36 when the president’s job approval rating is below 50 percent, as President Trump’s has been since taking office.
In the House, the Democrats need to pick up 25 seats. Republicans hold more competitive or toss-up seats than the Democrats and represent 23 districts won by Hillary Clinton.
On the Senate side, Democrats need to net just two seats to win the majority. But they face a much tougher map. Democrats are defending 26 seats to the Republicans’ eight, counting the special election for former Sen. Al Franken’s seat in Minnesota. Ten Democratic senators are running for re-election in 10 states Trump carried, including several the president won by double-digit margins.
But flipping one or both houses to the Democrats is not a fait accompli. And if we’ve learned anything from the last election, it’s that history and conventional wisdom aren’t as reliable as they once were.
Republicans have a record to run on, but they’re also dealing with an unpopular president who happens to be the leader of their party.
Can they run on tax cuts and a strong economy while distancing themselves from a polarizing president at the same time?
Here’s what our group had to say.
Rick Wilson
The checklist items for Republicans to maintain control of their political destiny and of the House and Senate come down to a few simple steps. First, get back to what being a representative of your state or district really means: addressing the issues that matter to the folks back home. That means not getting stuck in a nationalized campaign. If the campaign is nationalized, the Democrats will win. If you’re able to ride out the storm, it will in large measure be because you’re talking about the things that matter to the voters who sent you to Washington in the first place.
Unless you live in a deep red district, you’ll need some daylight between you and Donald Trump. The people running against you have voters who will crawl over broken glass to oppose Trump, Trumpism, and Trump’s style of campaign. Just ask Ed Gillespie.
Finally, remember that the base rarely gets you all the way home. Successful campaigns expand beyond it, and saving the House and Senate will need the GOP to stretch well outside its current Fox News/Trump Twitter comfort zone.
— Wilson is a Republican strategist and consultant.
Alex Conant
Last year, Ed Gillespie received more votes than any other Republican gubernatorial candidate in Virginia history. Yet, he still lost by a wide margin due to unprecedented turnout for the Democrats.
Much of the media is focused on how Trump is doing with his base and independent voters. But the truth is that Republican candidates around the country demonstrated in 2016 that they can overperform Trump by running solid, independent campaigns. And as Gillespie demonstrated in Virginia in 2017, quality Republican candidates are still able to hit our vote goals. But that might not be enough in 2018 if we’re still running against record enthusiasm among Democratic voters.
There’s no question that Democrats’ enthusiasm is in part due to the president’s daily tweets and related statements. His attacks on the media and liberals might energize some of the Republican base, but so far, they energize our opponents even more. (The top complaint I heard in a recent focus group of Republican voters was about Trump’s tweets.) If Trump deleted the Twitter app from his phone, Democratic voters’ enthusiasm would almost certainly start to drop.
Obviously, that’s a big if, and it’s one that I don’t think anybody is expecting. Instead, Republican leaders are right to redouble efforts to pass bipartisan legislation. If Trump is able to sign into law legislation addressing Democratic priorities like Dreamers, it will be a political win for everyone. Similarly, there are opportunities to pass genuinely bipartisan banking and infrastructure reforms, which would not only create good paying jobs but also take some of the bite out of partisan Democratic enthusiasm.
— Conant was the communications director for Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign.
Jeffrey Lord
In 1986, I was a member of the Reagan White House political staff. Our charge: keeping control of the GOP Senate captured in the 1980 Reagan landslide, and do our best with the Democratic-controlled House. We did well on the House side — a loss of a mere five seats. But we lost the Senate.
The fact is that incumbent presidents of both parties struggle in these elections. From 1938 (FDR) to 2014 (Obama), every single president has done badly, with a mere three exceptions. That would be JFK in 1962 — a success on the heels of the Cuban Missile Crisis — Bill Clinton in 1998 (but not 1994), and George W. Bush in 2002 (but not 2006). Clinton was ironically saved by the backfire against GOP exploitation of the Lewinsky scandal, and Bush benefited from a post-9/11 unity on the eve of the Iraq War.
It should be noted that a bad off-year election is not predictive of the president’s re-election. Presidents who suffer defeats in these elections can and have come back to win landslide re-elections. But the lessons for 2018? Have a message. Tend to the mechanics. Have the president raise money for the candidates. For those with serious Trump support in their states, get the candidates to the White House for videos of the president and the candidate strolling the Rose Garden. Send the president on the campaign trail.
And pray.
— Lord is a political strategist and was associate political director in the Reagan White House.
Byron York
I remember attending a small, private dinner in 2010 with John Boehner, who was then the House minority leader. The midterm elections were still a few months away, but Boehner confidently said the results were “baked in the cake” — Republicans were going to win control of the House. Aides were horrified that Boehner would speak so bluntly, but he was right; in November 2010, Republicans picked up 63 seats to win the House. Minority Leader Boehner became Speaker Boehner.
What that story might mean is that the 2018 election results are already baked in the cake, too, and there is nothing Republicans can do to change the outcome. But what outcome? History argues against the GOP. The president’s party, on average, has lost more than the 24 seats Democrats need to take over. That’s tough enough, but then there is President Trump’s low job approval rating, which is another drag on Republicans.
On the other hand, the economy is doing well, and not just the stock market. Wages are rising. Business is expanding. Formerly discouraged workers are reentering the job market. Republicans can tell voters they are actually doing things — like cutting middle-class taxes — to improve all Americans’ standard of living. That’s a powerful argument for re-election. But still, nothing has been predictable in the past two years, and it’s possible no political truisms or lessons from history will apply in the 2018 midterms. Who knows?
— York is the chief political columnist at the Washington Examiner.
Ryan Williams
Republicans control all levers of government in Washington, and our electoral prospects will depend on how Americans view the results of one-party control over the past two years. We can maintain majorities in Congress if our candidates can show voters how they have benefited from conservative policies and why it’s important to give the GOP another two years in power.
With the passage of tax reform and a strong economy, Republicans have significant results to point to as they build their midterm campaigns. GOP incumbents and challengers will need to explain to voters how the pro-growth policies pushed by the administration and enacted by the Congress have resulted in greater take-home pay, more jobs, and increased economic prosperity for all Americans. They will have to repeatedly and consistently sell voters on the importance of the tax overhaul as it will be under constant attack from Democrats who will attempt to distort the facts.
The wild card, of course, are the actions and behavior of President Trump. Republican congressional candidates know that their political fate is closely tied to the president’s approval ratings, which have been at historic lows. The president’s unconventional approach to his job has energized liberal voters and will motivate them to vote in the midterms. It is in the best interest of the entire party for President Trump to improve his standing by dialing back his rhetoric, avoiding Twitter, stop obsessing about distractions such as the Russia investigation, and focus on selling his tax overhaul to the public. Hopefully, Republican leaders in Congress can convince him to take this approach, but it remains to be seen if he is willing to take anybody’s advice.
— Williams is a Republican strategist and former spokesman for Mitt Romney.
Tim Carney
There is not much legislatively that Republicans can do to improve their image or electability between now and November. Congress is deeply unpopular, and the ruling party of the same party as the president in his first midterms are historically weak. The situation is exacerbated by a historically unpopular first-term president. No bill or deal or law is very likely to do that. Most of the work will need to be done on the campaign trail.
The one policy approach that may work in setting a good frame for the 2018 midterms is to force Democrats to defend their beloved corporate welfare. Go after the ethanol mandate, the sugar program, and the Export-Import Bank, which don’t help ordinary people and do enrich lobbyists and the well-connected. Given that Trump’s victory was earned in part on “Drain the Swamp” rhetoric, there’s some receptiveness among independent voters to the idea of taking on the special interests. Put Democrats in the position of defending Big Business and their lobbyists, and you can soften the inevitable blow.
— Carney is the commentary editor at the Washington Examiner.
Ford O’Connell
In the unlikely event that President Trump’s approval rating cracks 50 percent this fall, Republican congressional candidates, particularly in moderate House districts, will have to take matters into their own hands.
They will need to remind voters that Trump is not Hillary Clinton or Nancy Pelosi, and they will have to make the case to voters that whether you like or despise the president, it is hard to argue with the successes and results of this White House, especially when it comes to the economy.
One way to do this is to continuously run the Pelosi clip in which she proclaims that the bonuses being given to millions of employees around the country as a result of the tax bill are “crumbs.” Look, congressional Republicans don’t have to reinvent the wheel, nor do they have the time to, in an effort to hold the House of Representatives. They just have to be vociferous in reminding voters of the alternative, because a blue wave is looming on the horizon.
— O’Connell is a Republican strategist.
W. James Antle III
Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee was the most liberal Republican in Congress. He voted against the Iraq war and George W. Bush’s re-election in 2004. His father was a beloved figure in the state. He lost in the anti-Bush, Democratic wave of 2006.
Ten-term Mississippi Rep. Gene Taylor was the most conservative Democrat in Congress. He voted against Obamacare and the stimulus plan. Taylor did not vote for Barack Obama for president in 2008 and in his final term wouldn’t commit to voting again for Nancy Pelosi for speaker. He lost in the anti-Obama, Tea Party Republican wave of 2010.
If those two lawmakers could not distance themselves from their party’s president, few Republicans running this year will successfully distance themselves from President Trump. If the midterms end up being a referendum on things voters dislike about Trump, Republicans will lose, and the GOPers who are least like Trump will be among the hardest hit. And at age 71, Trump is likely to remain who he is without many changes.
All Republicans can do in 2018 is try to keep the economy humming and the country safe while accumulating a record that will entice both conservative base voters and the working-class whites who swung the presidential election to Trump to go to the polls this November. Publicize real-world benefits of anything they enact, such as the tax cut. Nominate the best possible candidates for Senate, taking advantage of a favorable map. It’s easier said than done, but it’s the only way to salvage the Republican majorities. And if it doesn’t work, like the Democrats who passed Obamacare, they’ll at least have the policy wins even after the majorities are gone.
— Antle is the politics editor at the Washington Examiner.
Alice Stewart
Midterm elections are generally not about the issues; they are a referendum on the party in power. Given that, and the fact that President Trump’s approval ratings hover around 40 percent, the GOP needs to be prepared for an uphill battle in the midterm elections. Democrats are poised to take control of the House of Representatives.
To keep control in the House and Senate, Republicans need to focus on the money, the messenger, and the message. Fortunately, they are. On the money: The Republican National Committee outraised the Democratic National Committee nearly 2-1 in 2017, which will go a long way to recruiting strong candidates and hiring solid teams. On the messenger: The GOP needs to do a better job vetting candidates in order to avoid another Roy Moore disaster. On the message: Anticipating a strong economy as a result of tax reform, this election needs to focus on “the economy, stupid.”
While many are predicting a Democratic wave in November, we need to keep in mind that political precedents went up in smoke the moment Donald Trump came down the escalator.
— Stewart is a CNN political commentator and former communications director for Ted Cruz for President.
Salena Zito
The Republicans need to sell the tax cuts to middle-income suburbanites who might find Trump’s personality off-putting. The key to holding the House is diminishing the urge by suburban voters to “send the president a message.”
And as far as broadening the Senate battlefield, there are 10 Democrats seeking re-election in states Trump carried. Thus far, most Trump-McConnell attention has focused on only half of those. Republicans need to elevate challengers in Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Montana and put all of those 10 Democrats in peril. More targets in Trump Country will yield more insurance against losses in suburbs out West.
And finally, Trump himself needs to gather a sense of momentum so that the infrequent Trump voter will feel like he is on a winning team and will want to come out.
— Zito is a columnist for the Washington Examiner.
Amy Walter
OK. So, what does the GOP need to do to keep control of the House/Senate? Here’s the thing, individual members can do all the “correct” things this year — raise lots of money, stay on message, put together a great campaign operation — and still lose. So much of what happens to them in 2018 is out of their control. They are at the mercy of the political environment and, most important, to the views Americans have of President Trump.
I have no doubt that Republican incumbents are going to run campaigns that highlight the growing optimism about the economy among the electorate. They will run ads touting the extra cash Americans have in their pockets thanks to the tax legislation. They will highlight corporate dollars invested back in their workers. They will highlight local issues that they’ve worked to solve.
And yet, they will get little help in making their case from the president. Are we talking about the tax bill or the economy this week at the White House? Nope, we are talking about “shithole” countries. This is not going to change. The only way in which the conversation moves away from Trump is if some intervening event occurs. That is certainly possible. But, once again, it is not within the control of individual members of Congress.
— Walter is the national editor of the Cook Political Report.
Kristen Soltis Anderson
The most important thing the GOP can do will be to govern competently and produce results that make voters want to keep Republicans in charge of Congress. Tax reform is a start, but they’ll need to continue to give voters a reason to keep them in control so that they can hang onto as many voters in the political middle as possible. All indications are that the left is fired up, and there is a lot of energy in the Democratic base, so Republicans will need to give other voters a reason to show up and to care.
This will also involve recruiting and cultivating a great crop of candidates to fill the open seats being vacated by the high number of retirements we are seeing on the Republican side. This could be a great opportunity for the GOP caucus to be infused with fresh thinking and new faces, but only if strong candidates are willing to throw their hats into the ring. An election cycle that looks like a scary situation now could be exacerbated if those strong candidates sit on the sidelines and wait for a better political environment.
— Anderson is a columnist for the Washington Examiner.
Michael Barone
Republicans need to pass serious immigration legislation following up, in a humane and rational way, on Donald Trump’s rhetoric. It should end extended-family chain migration, provide for E-Verify verification of job seekers, and move toward a skills-based quota system like Canada’s and Australia’s. This must be done in connection with legalizing Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals recipients — the only leverage Republicans have on an issue where they need Democratic voters.
Republicans must show, over and over again, how their tax cut and the administration’s regulatory policies have, for the first time in this century, led to wage increases and higher income for workers, and would-be workers, with modest skills.
Republicans should spotlight the extremism of many of the Democrats’ policies — to the extent that Democrats, like other parties out of the White House and in the minority on Capitol Hill, have developed policies. This is something voters haven’t given much thought to, and which Republicans don’t seem to have given much thought to either.
— Barone is a senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner.
Liz Mair
Keep additional incumbents in potential swing districts from retiring. The sheer number of incumbent Republican congressmen announcing their retirements is a testament to the difficulty of the political landscape. Still, the reality is that in a lot of cases, the incumbent would have had an easier chance of winning re-election than a newcomer will of prevailing, for simple reasons of name ID and because a lot of these figures have staked out reputations for themselves as independent thinkers and actors. So, Republicans need to stop the wave of retirements.
Put distance between candidates and Trump. In a lot of districts that could flip, if not all of them, the president is a bug, not a feature, of the Republican Party. And there is a general perception that exists among a lot of voters in these places that there is no real distance between the GOP and the president. If you’re in a swing district, that is going to present a major challenge to keeping office.
Promote tax reform and legislate prudently on immigration, infrastructure, and healthcare. Many of the districts that Republicans could easily lose in November are clustered in places where a suspicion exists that tax reform will have the effect of raising, not lowering, taxes. For those taxpayers who erroneously think their taxes will go up when in fact the opposite is true, the GOP had better hope that tax changes evidence themselves in people’s take-home pay well before November. Separately, in a lot of these swing districts, if the GOP bails on protecting DACA recipients, it will be seen as a negative. Failure to deliver on something the GOP has said it will do will make the party look even more ineffective and gutless than it already does to many voters. On the same front, while I’m no proponent of big infrastructure spending, it remains popular and is an issue on which Trump has talked a big game. If the GOP can’t deliver, all they’re walking into 2018 with, accomplishments-wise, is an unpopular tax bill. For that same reason, as much as it pains me to say it as someone who is a fierce opponent of Obamacare, they need to drop efforts to repeal it at this stage. It’s clear that the Republican caucus cannot get on the same page with regard to repeal efforts, let alone bring Democrats on board, so spending time on it just makes Republicans look weak.
— Mair is the owner, founder, and president of Mair Strategies LLC, a right-of-center public affairs and communications firm.
Philip Klein
Considering what Republicans need to do to keep the majority is sort of like asking a doctor to save a patient who has a terminal illness. That is, much of the fate of the GOP is already sealed. Traditionally, the president’s party loses significantly in midterm elections. Consider: Trump’s approval rating has been consistently underwater; Republicans are getting creamed when pollsters ask voters which party they’d rather have their representative come from; high profile Republicans have retired; and recruiting has suffered. So, it’s quite possible at this point that larger trends are at work that will cause Republicans to lose their majority regardless of how they campaign. But what could Republicans do to give themselves the best chance of winning?
Broadly speaking, Republicans are going to have to go on offense and be unapologetic. Whatever the ethical merits of standing up to President Trump’s excesses would be, if we’re looking at things from a purely cynical political perspective, the reality is that Republicans are stuck with Trump for better or for worse. Realistically, in most cases, they aren’t going to be able to distance themselves from the leader of the party. Voters who want a better check on Trump aren’t going to vote Republican. At the same time, even in districts in which Trump is unpopular, the Republican candidate is still going to need Trump supporters to turn out. So, nervously criticizing Trump is likely to make any Republican look desperate to anti-Trump voters while disillusioning his supporters in the district.
Republicans should campaign on the fact that the economy is growing and make sure that middle-class workers know that the higher take-home pay that will begin to show up in paychecks in February is directly the result of the tax bill. Republicans would also be wise to use this year to pass legislation lowering Obamacare’s premiums. Barring action, premiums are likely to skyrocket in the weeks leading up to the election, reminding voters of the futile efforts of Republicans to pass healthcare legislation. The days of the Republican House majority may be numbered no matter what they do, but they will be finished for sure if they play the whole year on defense.
— Klein is the managing editor of the Washington Examiner.
