Republicans are gearing up to take control of the House of Representatives, despite their majority not yet being sealed.
For Democrats, there’s still a narrow path to retaining the House majority by winning the majority of remaining true toss-up elections. As of Friday afternoon, there’s a statistical path for the Democratic to hit the 218-seat majority.
WINNER’S LIST: THE RACES THAT WILL DECIDE HOUSE CONTROL
The more likely scenario is that the Republicans end with a small majority, as they only have to add seven more seats to the 211 they’ve already won. Democrats currently have 196 seats secured, according to the Associated Press, but many of the 28 uncalled races are leaning blue or more likely to end with a Democratic victor than a Republican due to factors like ranked choice voting, as is the case in Maine and Alaska, or two Democrat-on-Democrat races that came out of California‘s jungle primary system.
House GOP leadership is trying to progress with rule and leadership votes as if the party has for certain nailed down the majority. Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) launched his bid for the speakership on Wednesday, as did Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) for majority leader.
Democrats have already kept more seats than expected amid hype over a red wave. Few upset Republican victories occurred outside of New York and Florida, where strong GOP gubernatorial candidates are thought to have raised a number of down-ticket Republicans with them.
“Our candidates were courageous,” Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) told her caucus on a Wednesday call, according to CNN. “They had the stamina to get the job done.”
Of the 28 outstanding races, here are a few of the true toss-ups that could still go either way and possibly help push the Democratic Party over the edge:
Colorado’s 3rd District: Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) v. Adam Frisch (D)
In Colorado, controversial Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert is barely hanging on to her lead with 99% of the vote reported. She faces Adam Frisch (D), who was ahead earlier in the vote count. Boebert is closely aligned with former President Donald Trump and as of Friday afternoon had a lead of just over 1,100 votes.
Arizona’s 1st District: Rep. David Schweikert (R) v. Jevin Hodge (D)
Just over three-quarters of the vote is in, and Arizona Democrat Jevin Hodge has a 1.6% lead over Rep. David Schweikert (R), who represented the old 6th District and is running in the redrawn 1st District that encompasses much of his old district. The new 1st District includes much of the northeast Phoenix suburbs and is more competitive as it contains an area closer to downtown Phoenix.
New York’s 22nd District: Brandon Williams (R) v. Francis Conole (D)
New York Republican Brandon Williams is ahead of Democrat Francis Conole by 1.6% of the vote with 97% of ballots recorded. Williams has declared victory, but Conole has not yet conceded.
California’s 13th District: John Duarte (R) v. Adam Gray (D)
With only 58% of the vote in, Republican John Duarte is leading Democrat Adam Gray by only 0.5%. The outcome of the race may not be known for another week, as California allows mail-in ballots postmarked on or before Election Day to be counted.
California’s 22nd District: Rep. David Valadao (R) v. Rudy Salas (D)
Incumbent California Rep. David Valadao (R), one of the 10 House Republicans to vote for Trump’s second impeachment, is currently nearly 10 points ahead of challenger Rudy Salas (D). However, less than half of the vote is accounted for, and the incoming mail-in ballots will likely skew Democratic.
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California’s 27th District: Rep. Mike Garcia (R). v. Christy Smith (D)
California Rep. Mike Garcia (R) appears comfortably ahead of Christy Smith (D), but as mail-in ballots are counted, this lead could also diminish.
Washington’s 3rd District: Joe Kent (R) v. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
There’s just over a 2-point difference between Washington Republican Joe Kent and Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, with the latter in the lead and about 70% of the vote tallied.
