A poll released on Monday from the Public Religion Research Institute shows Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden 18 percentage points ahead of President Trump among likely voters.
When PRRI modeled its data based on the assumption that voter turnout would be higher than in 2016, at 70% turnout versus roughly 55% four years ago, 51% of respondents said they would vote for Biden, and 38% said they would vote for Trump. Respondents who said they would vote for someone else or were unsure were also asked, “If you had to choose between these two candidates, who do you lean toward?” In response, 3% of the total number of respondents for that model said they would lean toward Biden, and 2% said they would lean toward Trump. The margin of error for this data set was plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
When the data was modeled based on 2016 turnout, 53% of respondents said they would vote for Biden, while 38% said they would vote for Trump. In response to the follow-up question, an additional 3% said they leaned toward Biden, and 3% said they leaned toward Trump. This data set’s margin of error was plus or minus 5.4 percentage points.
The survey interviewed 1,070 adults nationwide from Oct. 9 to Oct. 12 using both live phone interviews and online polling. That timeline puts the poll results after the president tested positive for the coronavirus but before controversy struck over emails allegedly found in hardware owned by Hunter Biden, the Democratic nominee’s son.
Several polls in recent days have shown Biden with a double-digit lead. The most recent poll to show Biden polling with a similar gap was a CNN poll conducted between Oct. 1 and Oct. 4, which showed Biden leading Trump by 16 points.
Editor’s Note: An earlier version of this article reported that the October poll from the Public Religion Research Institute showed Biden 15 points ahead of Trump, rather than 18. In PRRI’s full report, the October survey was referenced, but the data from an earlier survey, conducted in September, was the survey data that was included. PRRI later clarified this error to the Washington Examiner. A press release with the correct data has been attached to this piece, and the relevant information has been updated.
