Republicans, though still traumatized by their resounding defeat in the 2006 election, are growing convinced they can win the White House again in 2008. They believe things are beginning to turn their way. The war in Iraq is being won. The Democratic Congress is so unpopular that even House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says she disapproves of it. The economy, despite the subprime mortgage problem, is resilient. And several issues are emerging in their favor–taxes, national security, and illegal immigrants.
Best of all, Hillary Clinton is the likeliest Democratic presidential nominee. She has one quality Republicans appreciate: She unites Republicans everywhere in furious opposition as no other Democrat does. John Edwards, correct for once, told Clinton in last week’s Democratic presidential debate that Republicans “keep bringing you up” not because she’s a strong candidate but because “they may actually want to run against you.” That’s exactly what Republicans want. They think she’s highly beatable.
Having Clinton as their foe, however, won’t be sufficient for Republicans to hold the presidency in 2008. There are (at least) four political problems they must deal with successfully to win–problems that aren’t on the front burner except at Republican headquarters in Washington.
Here are the four:
Hispanics. President Bush won 40 percent of the growing Hispanic vote in 2004, but Republican candidates got roughly 30 percent in the 2006 midterm election. And practically everything Republicans have done since then has tended to alienate Hispanics.
Defeat of the immigration reform bill earlier this year, with its pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants in the United States, troubled many Hispanics. While Republicans weren’t solely responsible for killing the bill, they claimed the credit. This fall, Republicans have stressed the less divisive issues of denying driver’s licenses and in-state college tuition to illegals.
A massive repair job is needed if Republicans hope to regain support among Hispanics. This is critical. Bush defeated John Kerry by 2.4 percentage points in 2004. If Bush’s Hispanic backing had been cut in half, he might have lost. And that’s what Republicans are threatened with in 2008–getting half of Bush’s vote.
Ohio. Richard Nixon was famous for saying Ohio is the key to winning the White House. No Republican president has ever been elected without winning Ohio. Republicans lost the governorship, a Senate seat, and a House seat in 2006, and three Republican House members are retiring in 2008. The Republicans have slightly less than a 50 percent chance in Ohio next year.
The good news is that Ohio Republicans are prepared to fight. “The negativity against Republicans isn’t anything like it was in 2006,” Ohio Republican congressman Pat Tiberi says. Unpopular governor Bob Taft III is gone, as is the corruption issue. Ohio Republicans have a solid voter turnout infrastructure that saved House members Steve Chabot and Deborah Pryce last year. They’ll need it in 2008.
Ohio Republicans relish the idea of running against Hillary Clinton. But what if she chose Ted Strickland, Ohio’s likable Democratic governor, as her running mate? He’s a bit of a lightweight, but he’s also begun rebuilding the Democratic party in the state. “I don’t know what [Strickland] brings you except Ohio,” says Tiberi. Ohio is enough.
Turnout. Republicans in most states are not as well equipped as they are in Ohio. That’s why the volunteer effort organized in 2004 by Ken Mehlman, Bush’s campaign manager, was so important. The Bush campaign signed up several million volunteers, and they more than offset the paid Democratic election workers.
Here’s the rub in 2008. A significant (but unknowable) percentage of the Bush workers volunteered because of their strong commitment to George W. Bush. It’s doubtful the 2008 Republican nominee will stir that large and zealous an army of volunteers. Democrats, however, can repeat in 2008 what their turnout effort achieved in 2004–that is, the biggest Democratic vote ever. All it takes is money. And the coterie of rich donors who funded the 2004 effort, technically “independent” of the Democratic party and the John Kerry campaign, appear ready to spend millions again.
Bush. Never in modern times has a president who retired with a low approval rating been followed in office by a member of his own party. Recall who came after Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson. Even popular presidents–Dwight Eisenhower, Bill Clinton–aren’t automatically succeeded by fellow party members.
It’s true the 2008 election won’t be a referendum on the Bush administration. None of the four leading Republican candidates is close to Bush, much less a strong defender. But at 35 percent approval in the latest Fox News poll, Bush could still be a drag on the ticket. At 45 percent, he wouldn’t be.
Bush will get a boost from improved conditions in Iraq, assuming progress continues, and from the withdrawal of thousands of American troops. Winning fights with congressional Democrats may help, or may not. Bush needs what political consultant Sig Rogich calls a “moment,” an unplanned act that causes people to see someone in a different light. These are rare, but Bush experienced one after 9/11 when he climbed a pile of rubble at Ground Zero with a bullhorn.
None of these problems is insurmountable, though attracting Hispanic voters will be especially difficult. But a year from now, Republican prospects could be considerably brighter. The biggest prize, the White House, could be well within reach. But it won’t be easy.
Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD.
