I’ve never put much stock in party registration figures as an indicator of voting behavior. People tend to stay registered in the party in which they first enrolled, even when their voting behavior changes. Thus you see big Democratic party registration edges over Republicans in states like Kentucky (55%-38%) and Louisiana (49%-27%) which have almost all-Republican congressional delegations and which everyone assumes will vote for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama in November. Moreover, people tend to register in the party that has serious primary contests regardless of their general election voting behavior. Thus Democrats’ big edge (36%-11%) in Massachusetts did not prevent that state from voting for Scott Brown in January 2010 or for Republican governor candidates in 1990, 1994, 1998 and 2002.
Nonetheless marginal changes in party registration can provide clues about current party preference and degree of enthusiasm for each party. So a comparison of current party registration with that in 2008 in the 28 states with party identification may be helpful. It should be kept in mind that current figures may change between now and November as the two parties work to register more people who they think will vote their way.
The following tables show the change in party registration percentages for Republicans and Democrats in each of these 28 states. I have grouped them by region for purposes of analysis.
Repub % + or – Demo % + or –
EAST
Connecticut – –
Delaware – 1 –
Maine + 1 – 1
Maryland – – 1
Massachusetts – 1 – 1
New Hampshire + 4 –
New Jersey – –
New York – + 1
Pennsylvania – – 1
Rhode Island – 1 – 2
Not much significant change here, except for the Republican increase in New Hampshire. This is in line with the 2010 election, in which Republicans gained more than 100 seats in the 400-member New Hampshire House. But it may also reflect increased registration by those wishing to vote in the 2012 New Hampshire presidential primary; there was no corresponding incentive to register Democratic since the party’s nomination was uncontested. Mitt Romney has trailed Barack Obama in two of the three New Hampshire polls conducted in April and May.
MIDWEST
Iowa + 3 – 2
Kansas – – 1
Nebraska – – 2
South Dakota + 1 – 2
The Republican increase in Iowa is in line with the 2010 trend in that state and suggests that Romney has some chance of winning its 6 electoral votes.
WEST
Alaska + 1 –
Arizona – 1 – 4
California – 1 – 1
Colorado + 4 – 1
Nevada – – 1
New Mexico – – 2
Oregon – – 3
Wyoming + 6 – 5
Barack Obama carried the 19 electoral votes of Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico; Nevada has since gained a House seat so these three states will have 20 electoral votes next fall—two more than Ohio. The numbers here indicate a Republican trend in Colorado and a significant drop in Democratic registration certainly in Arizona and perhaps in New Mexico and Nevada. The Obama campaign registered many Hispanics in these states; are they the ones who dropped off? Certainly we can expect Democrats will work to raise these numbers.
SOUTH
Florida – – 2
Kentucky + 2 – 2
Louisiana + 2 – 3
North Carolina – 1 – 3
Oklahoma + 2 – 2
West Virginia – – 3
These numbers are evidence that the long-term trend against Democratic party identification and registration in the South has been continuing, even though Democrats continue to have a party registration edge in each of these states. The two that are likely to be competitive in the presidential race, Florida and North Carolina, with a total of 44 electoral votes, show some sign of Democratic decline.
Looking at the national picture, there are two points of encouragement for Republicans. One is the slight trend away from Democrats in Florida and North Caroline. The other is the significant increase in Republican registration in three Northern states—New Hampshire, Iowa and Colorado—which voted for Obama in 2008 and seem likely to be competitive in 2012. Mitt Romney would seem to be a more natural fit for these states than John McCain was in 2008 or George W. Bush was in 2000 and 2004 (and Bush carried Colorado twice and New Hampshire and Iowa once each). Subtract these five states from Obama’s column, plus Indiana’s 11 electoral vote and the single electoral vote he won by carrying Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, and Obama ends up with 284 electoral votes. That’s enough to win, provided he carries Ohio.
