Virginia Democratic Sen. Mark Warner is holding a commanding 12-point lead over Republican challenger Ed Gillespie less than a month before Election Day, according to a poll released Tuesday.
The poll, by the Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, found Warner with a commanding 51 percent to 39 percent lead over Gillespie among likely voters. Three percent of respondents favored Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis.
Virginia voters traditionally start to pay attention to their political races later in the campaign cycle, and because of that Gillespie waited until after Labor Day to kick his campaign into high gear. When CNU surveyed likely voters in a Sept. 10 poll, Gillespie received 31 percent support while 60 percent said they didn’t know enough about the Republican to decide between him and Warner.
Gillespie’s late ad blitz has moved the needle 8 points in his favor, but it may not be enough with less than a month to go until the Nov. 4 election.
“While Ed Gillespie’s numbers are improving as the campaigns turn up the volume, Mark Warner continues to be in a strong position heading into the final few weeks of this election,” said Wason Center Director Quentin Kidd. “Warner not only maintains the solid backing of his own partisans, but also strong support among ideological moderates and meaningful shares among Republicans and ideological conservatives.”
The poll found that Warner enjoys 94 percent support among Democrats and 50 percent support among independents. Gillespie has 88 percent support among Republicans but only 29 percent support among independents. Warner is also attracting a significant number of ideological conservatives at 13 percent. The poll found Warner holds a commanding 23-point lead among women voters, but Warner and Gillespie are polling neck-and-neck with male voters.
Among the issues Virginia voters are most concerned about, 35 percent say the economy remains the No. 1 issue. The commonwealth was hit especially hard by sequestration cuts because of its substantial defense industry. Healthcare is the second most important issue among Virginia voters at 19 percent, followed by the federal budget deficit and immigration.
The CNU poll was based on 839 interviews of registered Virginia voters, 690 of whom were considered likely voters. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.
