AMES, Iowa – Candidates vying for the Republican presidential nomination face the first serious test of the campaign season Saturday: The Ames straw poll.
The poll is unofficial and unreliable as a predictor of who will win Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses in February. It’s mainly a fundraiser for the state Republican Party.
Yet, the poll is also a closely watched test of a candidate’s organizational prowess, a way for voters to determine which candidates have strong, viable campaign organizations in place. Candidates have to get supporters to the daylong event and often do so with promises of free food, live music and the offer of a ride to Ames.
The candidates pay tens of thousands of dollars to stake out areas outside the straw poll’s main venue — Iowa State University’s Hilton Coliseum — so they and their volunteers can spend hours persuading voters and major donors to back them.
The straw poll only attracts a fraction of the state’s voters — 14,000 participated in 2007, while 127,000 voted in the caucuses a few months later — but it can propel candidates who do well to the top of the polls or signal the end of the road for those who don’t.
The race’s presumptive front-runner, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, isn’t even competing in this year’s straw poll. In his 2008 run for president, Romney spent millions in Iowa and won the straw poll only to lose the caucuses to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Romney will be in New Hampshire, home of the first presidential primary, while Iowans cast their ballots Saturday.
A pair of Minnesotans may have the most to gain — or lose — in this year’s straw poll.
Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty has spent more time and money in Iowa than any other candidate this year, but he continues to trail in the polls. He’s hoping a strong finish in the straw poll will push him into the top tier of contenders. Rep. Michele Bachmann, a Tea Party favorite and Iowa native, is at the top of the polls in the Hawkeye State and favored to win the straw poll. A poor showing, however, could sink her nascent campaign.
The one unknown factor in this year’s poll is Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who is expected to announce his candidacy in South Carolina on Saturday. Though he’s not in the race yet, Perry has enthusiastic supporters in Iowa who could vote for him as a write-in candidate in the poll.
