Exclusive: Trump’s favorite think tank releases its blueprint for rebuilding the military

HERITAGE’S BUDGET ADVICE TO CONGRESS: The think tank most favored by President Trump has just released its 2019 defense budget advice to Capitol Hill lawmakers. The Heritage Foundation is urging Congress toward more soldiers, ships and bigger future spending than what is proposed by Trump. “There are multiple areas where the rhetoric of the administration on rebuilding the military, as conveyed in the National Defense Strategy, does not seem to match the budgetary reality expressed by the President’s budget request for 2019,” the think tank says in a new brief by its team of defense experts, which was obtained exclusively by our own Travis Tritten.

Trump unveiled his budget request in February, just as Congress struck a two-year deal to hike defense spending to $700 billion this year and $716 billion next year. The Pentagon quickly made “last-minute changes” to match the agreement. Now, lawmakers are left to make sure it is “properly scrutinized” and beefed up, Heritage says. “After all, the urgently needed military rebuilding depends on it. It represents the next step in the crucial work to rebuild the armed forces,” the brief says.

Trump took Heritage’s advice on defense spending while he was a candidate, and the think tank remains highly influential at the White House. Here are the group’s recommendations:

WHEN THE BUDGET DEAL ENDS: Congress needs to give the military some future budget certainty, Heritage says. The two-year budget cap deal will expire after fiscal 2019, leaving a question mark over what future defense spending will look like. The Pentagon and the White House have penciled in 2 percent growth between 2020 and 2023, but it will not be enough. “The projected inflation-level growth is an enormous difference from the 3 percent to 5 percent annual increases until 2023 that [Defense Secretary Jim Mattis] testified were the absolute minimum for maintaining current military capabilities,” according to Heritage. “Rather than experiencing a robust continued growth, the defense budget after 2019 would flat-line to inflationary levels.”

MORE SOLDIERS: Lawmakers should add thousands more soldiers to the Army. Trump has requested an increase of 4,500 active-duty soldiers in the 2019 budget, and to build the active-duty force up to 495,500 by 2023. “The administration’s proposed increase, while necessary and welcome, is insufficient,” Heritage said. The think tank recommends Congress grow the Army to 492,000 in the coming year and up to 520,000 by 2023. “Growth by 9,000 in 2019 is both feasible and necessary.”

MORE SHIPS: The Trump budget proposal calls for buying 10 new battle force Navy ships, two more than last year. Members of the House Armed Services Committee have already begun pushing for a bigger buy in 2019. Heritage says lawmakers should budget 12 battle force ships in 2019 with the addition of one expeditionary fast transport ship. “The Navy’s shipbuilding plans fall well short of their stated goal and sense of Congress of a 355-ship fleet,” Heritage said. “While this is an increase over the Navy’s 2018 request of eight ships, it is still not sufficient to build the fleet toward the congressionally mandated requirement of 355 ships within the current 30-year shipbuilding plan.”

MORE F-35s FOR THE NAVY AND USMC: Congress should significantly bump up the purchases of F-35B joint strike fighters, the vertical take-off and landing variant used by the Marine Corps, and F-35Cs, the Navy’s carrier variant. The president’s budget calls for 20 F-35Bs and nine F-35Cs. Heritage recommends the services purchase 23 and 18 of each, respectively.

HOUSE STARTS BUDGET MARKUP: The recommendations come just as the House Armed Services Committee announces its schedule for marking up the 2019 National Defense Authorization Act, which will eventually authorize troop levels, ship numbers and a vast array of military policy and priorities. The committee has set its whirlwind series of six subcommittee markup hearings for Thursday, April 26. Those markups are often formalities with a quick vote and little debate, but they will reveal the outlines of the next NDAA. House Armed Services is set to hold its marathon full committee debate and amendment session on the bill May 9, which typically runs all day and late into the night.

SASC BUDGET HEARINGS: While the House moves toward markup, the Senate Armed Services Committee has slated a series of budget-related hearings with testimony from the civilian and uniformed leaders of the Army, Navy and Air Force. The hearings will culminate with fiscal 2019 budget testimony on April 26 from Mattis, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford, and David Norquist, the Pentagon comptroller.

Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY — SECAF SPEAKS: Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson speaks at 7:30 this morning at an Air Force Association breakfast at the Capitol Hill Club. The association says the event will emphasize recapitalization and modernization issues for the service.

NO PLANS TO CURB F-35 BUYS: The Air Force does not intend to cut the number of F-35A joint strike fighters it plans to buy despite rising concerns over ballooning upkeep costs, said Gen. David Goldfein, the service’s chief of staff. Goldfein told reporters Thursday that the Air Force will pressure F-35 maker Lockheed Martin to bring down costs as it attempts to save money on sustaining the fifth-generation aircraft. “Remember, we are going to be buying these aircraft for a number of years, so it’s way too early to be talking about any curtailment of any procurement or any buy. Anything that we might be talking about is really well out into the future,” Goldfein said. “I don’t want, because it’s just not true, that there’s any — any — intent on our part to go one aircraft below the current program of record, because that is what we require today to actually accomplish the strategy as it’s currently written.”

Air Force analysts determined the service may need to cut 590 from the 1,763 aircraft, about one-third, it plans to order over the next decade because of the $1.1 trillion it may cost to operate and maintain all three services’ aircraft through 2070, according to Bloomberg News.

2 DEAD, 5 WOUNDED IN SYRIA: The U.S. military is reporting this morning that two coalition troops were killed and five others wounded in a blast from an improvised explosive device yesterday in Syria. “Wounded personnel received immediate care and are being evacuated for further medical treatment,” Operation Inherent Resolve said in a brief statement. “The names of the deceased will be released at the discretion of the pertinent national authorities.”

TRUMP’S SYRIA CURVEBALL: In his rambling Ohio speech yesterday, Trump appeared to rewrite Syria policy on the fly. “We’re knocking the hell out of ISIS. We’ll be coming out of Syria, like, very soon. Let the other people take care of it now,” Trump said, either unaware or glossing over the fact the U.S.-backed offensive to complete the defeat of ISIS in Syria has stalled, thanks in large part to Turkey’s campaign to wipe out many of the Kurdish fighters the U.S. needs to finish the job.  

“Very soon — very soon we’re coming out. We’re going to have 100 percent of the caliphate, as they call it — sometimes referred to as ‘land’ — taking it all back quickly, quickly,” Trump said to enthusiastic applause. “We’re going to be coming out of there real soon. Going to get back to our country, where we belong, where we want to be.”

PENTAGON DISCONNECT: Just two hours before Trump’s talk of a quick withdrawal from Syria, the Pentagon was stressing the need to hold firm. “While the coalition has significantly degraded ISIS, important work remains to guarantee the lasting defeat of these violent extremists,” said Dana White the Pentagon’s chief spokesperson, who warned, “ISIS is taking full advantage of any opportunity to regain momentum.”

The official position of the U.S. up to now is that some number of U.S. troops would be remaining in Syria indefinitely to make sure ISIS doesn’t reconstitute, and to provide stability while diplomats try to work out a settlement in U.N.-brokered talks in Geneva. Or as Mattis put it last November: “We’re going to make sure we set the conditions for a diplomatic solution … Not just, you know, fight the military part of it and then say good luck on the rest of it.”

When asked about whether the president’s off-the-cuff musing amounted to a change in policy, both the Pentagon and the State Department seemed flummoxed and referred all queries to the White House. “I’m not prepared to comment on what was supposedly said,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert told reporters. “I’d have to refer you back to the White House. I don’t work at [the White House].”

It was former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson who made the clearest statement of the U.S. intention to stay in Syria even after ISIS was defeated, in a speech at Stanford two months ago. “The United States will maintain a military presence in Syria focused on ensuring ISIS cannot re-emerge,” Tillerson said in January. But that was a lifetime ago.

OH, THAT’S JUST TRUMP: Jim Phillips, a senior research fellow for Middle Eastern affairs at the Heritage Foundation, said the infrastructure speech turned foreign policy declaration caught him off guard.

But Phillips cautioned against reading too much into Trump’s comment. The fact that the Pentagon and State Department weren’t ready to weigh in on Trump’s statement means it was likely an off-the-cuff remark that might not mean too much in the grand scheme of things.

“The statements of the State Department and Defense Department would indicate this wasn’t something that was planned, but more kind of an ad lib,” Phillips said.

IF ONLY WE HAD KEPT THE OIL: In his Ohio speech, Trump returned to a favorite campaign theme, arguing the U.S. has wasted far too much money in Iraq and Syria and should have taken the region’s oil to pay for the years of war.

“I used to say, ‘Keep the oil.’ We never kept the oil. If we kept the oil, we would have been OK. If we kept the oil, we wouldn’t have ISIS. Because you know who kept a lot of the oil? ISIS. That’s how they funded themselves. They kept the oil. We didn’t keep the oil. Stupid, stupid.”

Trump suggested all the blood and treasure the U.S. has expended in Iraq and Syria has not been worth it. “We spent $7 trillion in the Middle East. And you know what we have for it? Nothing,” he said. “Nobody ever heard of the word ‘trillion’ until 10 years ago. We spent $7 trillion in the Middle East. We’d build a school, they’d blow it up. We’d build it again, they’d blow it up. We’d build it again — hasn’t been blown up yet, but it will be. But, if we want a school in Ohio to fix the windows, you can’t get the money.”

RUSSIA’S TIT-FOR-TAT: Sixty U.S. officials are being ordered to leave Russia, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced Thursday, in the latest round of a diplomatic feud stemming from the poisoning of a former spy in the United Kingdom.

“US Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman has been summoned to our ministry, where my deputy Sergei Ryabkov is briefing him on the tit-for-tat steps against the US,” Lavrov said, per TASS, a state-run media outlet. “They include the expulsion of the same number of diplomats and our decision to withdraw consent to the work of the Consulate General in St. Petersburg.”

U.S. MAY TAT-FOR-TIT: The Trump administration might retaliate against Russia’s expulsion of 60 American officials, the State Department announced Thursday. “We reserve the right to respond further,” Nauert told reporters Thursday. “We’re reviewing our options.”

TRUMP TO PUTIN, BRING IT ON: Trump reportedly told Russian President Vladimir Putin during a phone call the U.S. would beat Russia if the two nations were to engage in an arms race. “If you want to have an arms race we can do that, but I’ll win,” Trump warned Putin, according to two White House officials who spoke to NBC News.

KIM TO RUSSIA? North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un may visit Russia for meetings related to the brewing nuclear crisis, according to Moscow officials. “Things are currently under consideration, but it is possible to say that the visit is an immediate prospect,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Thursday.

COULD PENTAGON FUND THE WALL? It’s not a popular notion, nor would it be easy to get congressional approval, but the Pentagon yesterday confirmed that Mattis has discussed with the president his idea about getting the Defense Department involved in building his border wall with Mexico, under the rationale it’s all about national defense. A report from Just Security suggested that Mattis may actually be drawing up some options, but none seemed feasible. It could be that Mattis is gently trying to explain why the idea is non-starter.

WHAT? THE DEVIL? Mattis’ devilish sense of humor was on display as he shook hands and ushered Trump’s next national security adviser John Bolton into the Pentagon yesterday afternoon. As the two men disappeared through the River Entrance, the TV pool camera captured Mattis ribbing Bolton that he was “the devil incarnate.”

“It’s good to finally meet you,” Mattis told Bolton. “I heard that you’re actually the devil incarnate and I wanted to meet you.” Bolton could be heard laughing. It was first time Mattis has met the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, with whom he has pledged to form a partnership.

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NELLER’S A TREKKIE: At an Atlantic Council event yesterday, Marine Corps Commandant Robert Neller confessed to Defense One’s Kevin Baron that he’s a big Star Trek fan. “I think that Star Trek is a leadership show,” Neller said. “There have been about four or five different versions of Star Trek. My favorite … is Star Trek: Next Generation, with Jean-Luc Picard as the captain of the Enterprise.”

Neller says while the show is “a little hokey sometimes” it does make you think about modernization, technology and leadership. “You always find that the crew and the captain are put in some sort of moral, ethical, operational dilemma, which I find interesting.”

SHANAHAN’S ‘GSDN’ INITIAL INITIATIVE: Deputy Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan, who famously tried to sneak some Star Wars references into some boring Pentagon acronyms, has a new set of initials he’s touting. At a Center for a New American Security event yesterday, the Pentagon’s No. 2 said you may see the initials GSD or GSDN on T-shirts or buttons or coins. GSD stands for “Get Stuff Done,” while GSDN adds “now” to the slogan.

Earlier this year, a draft Shanahan memo referred to the new “Central Cloud Computing Program Office,” or “C3PO,” to “acquire the Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure (JEDI) Cloud.” The references were excised before the memo was issued.

THE RUNDOWN

Reuters: China Says It Is ‘Coordinating’ With U.S. Over Possible Mattis Visit

Air Force Times: What happened to the Air Force mechanic who stole a C-130 in a drunken, desperate bid to return home?

AP: US plant that destroys chemical weapons beset by troubles

Inside Defense: Geurts: Navy Faces Three Significant Hurdles To Improving Public, Private Shipyard Maintenance

Task and Purpose: Does Gen. Dunford Actually Believe His Own Bullsh-t?

Business Insider: A massive military exercise between the US and South Korea is about to kick off — check out why North Korea hates it

Military.com: With Pentagon Policy on Hold, Transgender Troops, Advocates Speak Out

Defense One: New Transgender Policy Is Grounded in Common Sense

Army Times: US officials say they’re not conducting ‘presence patrols’ in Manbij, Syria, but new photos show otherwise

USNI News: Current Schedule at Risk for Navy F-35C Fighters to be Combat Ready by End of Year

Foreign Policy: Trump Should Do His Nuke Deal Homework

Roll Call: S. Korea Trade Pact is Leverage in Kim Jong Un Talks, Trump Says

Breaking Defense: Army Accelerates Air & Missile Defense Five Years: MSHORAD, MML, Lasers

The Hill: US calls for larger rapid-reaction NATO force to counter Russia

National Interest: A U.S. Navy Aircraft Carrier Can Now Remotely Control And Land Fighter Jets

War on the Rocks: With Its New ‘White Book,’ France Looks to Become a World-Class Player in Cyber Space

Calendar

FRIDAY | MARCH 30

7:30 a.m. 300 First St. SE. Air Force Association Breakfast Series with Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson.

10 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Murky Waters: Maritime Security in the East and South China Seas. atlanticcouncil.org

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW. After Syria: The United States, Russia, and the Future of Terrorism. csis.org

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. An update on the war in Afghanistan with Brig. Gen. Roger Turner. brookings.edu

MONDAY | APRIL 2

1:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Syria and the Outside Powers: What They Want and Can They Have It? wilsoncenter.org

TUESDAY | APRIL 3

10 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. Iraq and Syria: Views from the U.S. Administration, Military Leaders and the Region with Gen. Joseph Votel, CENTCOM Commander, Stephen Hadley, and Brett McGurk, Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIS. usip.org

WEDNESDAY | APRIL 4

8 a.m. 2401 M St. NW. Defense Writers Group breakfast with Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats.

8 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. Health Affairs Breakfast featuring Kenneth Bertram, the Principal Assistant for Acquisition for the US Army Medical Research and Materiel Command. ndia.org

4:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Big Small Companies: How Size Matters in Defense Contracting. atlanticcouncil.org

THURSDAY | APRIL 5

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Autonomous weapons and international law with introduction by Pauline Krikke, Mayor of the Hague. brookings.edu

12 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Future of the JCPOA: Implications for the U.S., Its Allies, and Adversaries. hudson.org

2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Humanitarian Crisis in Yemen. csis.org

5 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW.  “Meddling—How to Win Friends and Influence People: Ivan Maisky, Soviet Ambassador in London, 1932-43,” a presentation by Gabriel Gorodetsky and a conversation with Strobe Talbott. carnegieendowment.org

6:30 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. Foreign Affairs Issue Launch: Letting Go: Trump, America, and the World. cfr.org

FRIDAY | APRIL 6

10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Book discussion of “The Kremlinologist: Llewellyn E. Thompson, America’s Man in Cold-War Moscow” with authors Jenny Thompson and Sherry Thompson. wilsoncenter.org

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Seeking solutions for Somalia. brookings.edu

10:30 a.m. 1030 15th Street NW. Iran’s Sunnis Resist Extremism, But for How Long? atlanticcouncil.org

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QUOTE OF THE DAY
“We spent $7 trillion in the Middle East. And you know what we have for it? Nothing. … We never kept the oil. If we kept the oil, we would have been OK. If we kept the oil, we wouldn’t have ISIS. Because you know who kept a lot of the oil? ISIS. That’s how they funded themselves. They kept the oil. We didn’t keep the oil. Stupid, stupid.”
President Trump, returning to a theme of his campaign, in a speech in Ohio yesterday.

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