The outlook for Republicans in November is very good—at least as favorable as in 1994, and possibly more so than at any point since 1928. Several factors account for the positive environment.
First and most obviously, the economy helps the Republicans. American voters have been booting incumbent parties that cannot produce economic growth since Martin Van Buren’s Democrats lost to the Whig party in 1840. Not only has the unemployment rate remained unacceptably high this year, the slowing of GDP growth has robbed the Democrats of the argument that the country is at least moving in the right direction.
Adding to the Democrats’ woes is the unpopularity of the Obama administration. The president’s net job approval is now negative, with more Americans disapproving than approving of his performance. President Obama has certainly “earned” this poor approval, thanks to three significant, unforced errors. First, his economic stimulus fell far short of expectations because he underestimated the depth of the recession and overestimated the effectiveness of the pork-laden stimulus bill that Congress passed. Second, he has wantonly inflated and made no serious effort to reduce the budget deficit, now an acute concern for many Americans. Third, he passed a health care bill that was and remains highly unpopular.
Any one of these issues would give Republicans a decided advantage this year. The combination of all three creates the kind of electoral environment not seen since 1974, when Democrats annihilated Republicans because of Watergate and recession.
Finally, Democrats face the added burden of an inefficiently distributed base of voters. The Democratic base consists mostly of union workers, upscale urban liberals, and minority voters, many of whom are clustered in highly Democratic districts. While Democrats have a congressional majority in many other districts nationwide, it depends upon independents and soft partisans, the sorts of voters who split their tickets. These voters have bolted the Obama coalition in droves, leaving scores of Democratic incumbents in jeopardy.
The House
Republicans now enjoy a lead of about 7 points in the RealClearPolitics average of the generic ballot, which asks voters if they prefer the Democratic or Republican candidate in their House district. These kinds of numbers are without precedent. Even in 1994, the generic ballot was showing just a small Republican lead at this point in the cycle. Polling consistently suggests that the Republicans have a commanding lead among independents, who supported Democrats in 2006 and 2008. If Republicans can hold independents through November, and there is no reason to think they cannot, they should win control of the House.
It’s worth noting that the generic ballot average at RealClearPolitics consists mostly of registered-voter samples, in which Democrats tend to be overrepresented. The three most recent generic ballot tests of likely voters—from Rasmussen, ABC News/Washington Post, and Democracy Corps—all show Republican leads of 7 points or greater. Polling has consistently shown a marked enthusiasm gap, with Republicans much more eager to vote than Democrats, but this gap has yet to be factored into the registered-voter generic ballots. When more firms start polling likely voters, the Republican lead in the polling average should grow.
In 1994, the GOP won the House vote by 7 points and picked up 52 seats. The evidence this year points to an even better result. Still, important questions remain, most notably whether the Democrats will be able to rally their base and narrow the enthusiasm gap. That would not be sufficient for the Democrats to hold the House, but it might prevent the kind of once-in-a-generation blowout last seen in 1974.
Expect Republican gains to be the biggest in the Midwest, with the party doing particularly well in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Also, expect a solid rebound in upstate New York, as well as a potential sweep in New Hampshire, which should quiet the obnoxious “Death of Northeastern Republicanism” meme. The GOP might even take a House seat in Massachusetts, which would be the party’s first in the Bay State since 1994. Gains in the West will be fewer, although look for symbolic pickups in Arizona as voters punish the Democrats for Obama’s assault on the state’s new immigration law. Republicans should also pick up a fair number of southern seats, especially in Florida. However, because the party’s southern flank generally held the line against the Democrats in 2006 and 2008, there are fewer potential pickups in the South.
The Betting Line: GOP gain of 57 seats
The Senate
Since popular elections for the Senate were mandated by the 17th Amendment, there has been an unbroken historical pattern: When the House flips, the Senate flips, too. This could be the year that does not happen.
Senate seats are assigned to one of three classes, with each class standing for election every six years. The current class last stood for election in 2004, which was a good year for the Republicans. Thus, there are relatively few Democratic seats up for grabs this year, and the seats that are up stayed Democratic even in 2004, a poor year for the party. This limits the Republican opportunity to acquire control of the Senate.
So, too, does the nomination of weak candidates in Illinois and Nevada. Lisa Murkowski, the Republican incumbent in Alaska recently defeated in the primary, may wage a write-in campaign that could split the Republican vote. Charlie Crist, a former Republican rejected by his party, threatens to split the GOP in Florida. Finally, a Tea Party-backed candidate in Delaware threatens to derail the candidacy of Mike Castle, a moderate Republican who should otherwise easily win the seat in that Democratic-leaning state.
Still, Republicans have advantages. The party is all but guaranteed to pick up seats in Arkansas, Indiana, and North Dakota. What’s more, a pick up in Pennsylvania looks increasingly likely. The Democratic nominee in Illinois, Alexi Giannoulias, is just as weak as Republican Mark Kirk. Michael Bennet, the incumbent Democrat in Colorado, looks quite vulnerable, as do Barbara Boxer in California, Patty Murray in Washington, and Russ Feingold in Wisconsin. All of these seats are toss-ups at the moment. The Republicans stand a fair chance of winning the open seat in Connecticut, where the Democrats have nominated a surprisingly weak candidate in Attorney General Richard Blumenthal. The GOP also has an opportunity in West Virginia, where the popular Democratic governor Joe Manchin must contend with voters who strongly disapprove of President Obama. Blumenthal and Manchin are both facing rich Republican challengers who can fund their own campaigns. What’s more, in a year when the macro forces are as pro-Republican as they are, seemingly safe Democrats like Ron Wyden of Oregon and Kirsten Gillibrand of New York may end up in jeopardy.
The Senate outlook is extremely hazy. The next four weeks should clarify matters considerably.
The Betting Line: GOP gain of 8 seats
The States
State political battles typically follow the national mood. This year appears to be no exception. Republicans look well positioned to win the governor’s mansion in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Pennsylvania. Other Democratic-held governor seats are vulnerable: Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wisconsin. Democrats could cut their losses by taking Connecticut, Hawaii, and Minnesota—all of which currently look to be Democratic pick-ups. The Democrats also have good odds of winning toss-up races in California, Florida, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
As for the state legislatures, Republicans should do well there, also. By the end of 1994, Republicans controlled the state senate in 25 states and the state house in 24 states. It’s reasonable to expect slightly better results this year.
In the short run, gains in the states will not influence national politics, but they will aid the Republican party’s long-term prospects. Four of the last eight presidents had been governors, and a new crop of state executives will only increase the chances of strong Republican presidential contenders in 2016 and 2020. Victories in state houses are also critical this cycle because of the upcoming House redistricting battle.
The Betting Line: GOP pickups of 9 governorships, 6 state senates, and 9 state houses
These estimates are based upon the best data available Labor Day week. In cycles such as this, when the incumbent party stands to do very poorly, it is often the case that its position deteriorates further between Labor Day and Election Day. Thus, if these estimates are revised before November, it is much more likely that they will point to larger Republican gains than smaller ones.
Jay Cost is a staff writer at The Weekly Standard.
