BIRMINGHAM, Ala. — On a hot and lazy Sunday afternoon in Alabama, the Roy Moore campaign is projecting confidence. Two days ahead of the Republican runoff, they point to a pair of new polls putting Moore comfortably ahead of incumbent Sen. Luther Strange.
Moore leads Strange by 10 points, 50 to 40 percent, according to an Emerson College Polling Society poll released Sunday. And a separate Gravis Marketing survey announced the same day has the judge up eight points, 48 to 40 percent.
Though fluctuating, at least for now, it seems that Moore could survive the Trump effect.
NEW #ALSenate POLL for #GOP Sept 26 #Alabama Primary between @MooreSenate & @lutherstrange | Analysis HERE -> https://t.co/4RIxwCHpFV pic.twitter.com/TBtk1pXeFI
— Emerson Polling (@EmersonPolling) September 24, 2017
President Trump came roaring into Huntsville and to Strange’s aid Friday night. While he offered strong condemnation of professional football players exercising their First Amendment rights, Trump hosted a half-hearted rally for the beleaguered incumbent. Still that rambling rally was enough to generate a small bump.
“What we have are those undecided voters slightly breaking for Luther Strange,” said Emerson College professor and poll author Spencer Kimball. “What that’s done is tighten the race to about ten points.” Pre-Trump two weeks ago, according to the same pollsters, Moore enjoyed a 14-point lead.
“Rep. Mo Brooks voters are going for Moore basically three-to-one,” Kimball said before noting that 10 percent of voters remain undecided.
With just days before the runoff closing that gap will be difficult but not impossible. Rep. Bradley Byrne, from Alabama’s deep red 1st district, notes that while rural voters heavily favor Moore, Trump’s popularity can’t be underestimated.
“The president has strong support in the state and his case that he needs Strange in the Senate to pass his agenda can have a big impact on the race,” Byrne told me shortly before Friday’s rally. Does he think that Trump’s popularity could save Strange against the rising anti-establishment tide, though? “I think it’s possible.”
Vice President Mike Pence will repeat Trump’s pitch for Strange on Monday night in Birmingham while former senior White House strategist Steve Bannon will rally for his opponent across town. Until then, the Moore campaign seems to be taking Sunday easy.
Philip Wegmann is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
