Lindsey Graham may have been approaching zero in the polls when he bowed out of the race for the Republican nomination Monday, but his exit, and the aftermath, are noteworthy for a few reasons.
First, Graham leaves the presidential field without a candidate who has served in the armed forces. (Leaving out Army vet Jim Gilmore, who hasn’t met the debate requirements for months.) Former Texas governor Rick Perry was the only other major candidate to have served, and Graham’s departure is a stark reminder that there’s no military experience left in either party’s slate of candidates to be commander in chief.
Second, there’s Graham’s unique position as a favorite son of an early primary state. Graham never led the polls in South Carolina, home of the first-in-the-South primary, but his presence in the race sucked up a lot of the state’s political and financial resources—resources that can now be deployed to the remaining candidates. Influential Palmetto State Republicans like Senator Tim Scott and Congressman Trey Gowdy have kept things quiet in the presidential race while Graham has been running. It will be worth watching to see if Scott, Gowdy, and others feel liberated, particularly as South Carolina’s February 20 primary approaches.
Finally, there’s the question of Graham’s endorsement itself, along with that of his most prominent supporter, Arizona senator John McCain. It’s not a given that both will support the same candidate, if either decides to endorse. But Graham and McCain are two peas in a political pod, particularly on national security issues, which was the chief reason McCain supported him. Where do McCain and Graham go, and will it matter?
Graham’s candidacy, particularly in its final weeks, seemed to be aimed at stopping elements of the GOP he deemed unsavory. That attitude, along with his unorthodox positions, puts him at odds with the conservative base of the Republican party. The same might also be said of McCain. So why should we assume their endorsements will make a difference, or that the winning candidate might even want them? McCain was the nominee of party in 2008, and still holds some influence within the party. And Graham’s endorsement will matter somewhat significantly in the South Carolina primary.
So who could it be? At U.S. News and World Report, David Catanese suggests the choice for Graham is between the two Floridians, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio. Here’s Catanese:
As Catanese points out, Graham has offered praise to both Bush and Rubio, though he’s expressed reservations about the latter being too young and inexperienced to THE WEEKLY STANDARD’s Steve Hayes last year. But what about a third choice in New Jersey governor Chris Christie?
If Graham is iffy about Rubio and wary of Bush’s stalling poll numbers, Christie might be a good bet to get the senator’s endorsement. He sings a similar tune on foreign policy to Rubio and Bush and has some momentum in the all-important establishment stronghold of New Hampshire—which, after all, is where McCain turned around his 2008 campaign. Might Christie be just as eligible to earn a Graham-McCain endorsement?
Not likely, says one Graham backer in South Carolina. “Christie has done a good job in New Hampshire, and understands the threat posed by radical Islam, but he probably isn’t going to be a factor in the South Carolina primary,” said the Graham supporter. “It’s just not in the cards.”
What about the criticism of Rubio from October 2014? Should we take that to mean he’s leaning more toward Bush? Not necessarily, says the Graham backer, who points out the race looks a lot different now with Donald Trump leading the pack: “When it comes to understanding the threat posed by radical Islam, Bush, Rubio, and a few others look like modern day Churchills compared to Trump.”
